Compass Points – A.I. and the Fish

A Compass Points Satire Story

Compass Points – A.I. and the Fish

A Compass Points Satire Story

June 9, 2024

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Compass Points is wondering on this beautiful Sunday in June, will the exciting new tool of Artificial Intelligence actually be able to do the thinking for Marines? Apparently, the DOD CDAO thinks so. The Department of Defense Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Office has the mission to: “accelerate DoD adoption of data, analytics, and artificial intelligence from the boardroom to the battlefield to enable decision advantage.”

No doubt Artificial Intelligence will prove itself a useful tool in some limited situations, but like so many new technologies, it is worth being cautious about the uses and limits of AI. Marines thrust into challenging situations have been improvising, adapting, and overcoming, using -- not artificial intelligence -- but their own intelligence since 1775.

Compass Points has received a satire story suggesting there may be limits to AI.

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Artificial Intelligence & the Fish

A Compass Points satire story

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Their day started at the gas station closest to the front gate of Camp Lejeune, North Carolina. Two different people. But after that one unexpected day, they were friends for life.

It is 0700 Saturday morning. The gas station is empty. The roads are empty. Only a trickle of traffic from the base. The sky is gray. The sun, only a dim presence behind the clouds. The cold front whips flecks of ice on the two men. Another nasty December day.

"Dan, Dan the computer man," says Dan as he shakes Mike's hand. "I sure appreciate you giving me a lift."

Mike studies Dan. He notes Dan's short sleeve button down dress shirt tucked into dress slacks. On his feet, a pair of scuffed and worn black dress shoes. In Dan's left hand, he holds the very latest IPhone. Every few seconds, Dan glances at the screen.

This guy is an outdoor survival expert? thinks Mike.

"Mike," says Mike shaking hands with Dan.

"Mike the Marine, right?" says Dan. "So, what made you volunteer for this thing? Are you a fan of the show?"

"Not a fan at all," says Mike. "I've never seen it."

"You've never seen, Outdoor Survival Challenge?" asks Dan, in astonishment. "It is the greatest show. I never miss it." Dan glances at his phone and taps out a quick reply before looking back up at Mike.

"So if you are not a fan of the show, why did you volunteer to give up your Saturday to drive to Quantico for the taping?"

"I didn't volunteer," says Mike glumly. "I got volun-told."

Mike and Dan climb into Mike's pickup. "Don't you have a bag or something? We might have to stay overnight." says Mike.

"All I need is my cell phone," says Dan. "My cell phone is everything."

"I don't think you can use your cell phone to brush your teeth," replies Mike.

Once they were driving, Dan asks, “Do you know how to make fire? I do. You make a bird's nest. Then use flint to make a spark. It's that simple."

"Have you ever done it?"

Dan shook his head, no.

"It's simple in theory. It's not that simple to actually do it."

"You've made fire?" asks Dan.

 "I've been to Big Bear, the Marine Corps Mountain Warfare Training Center,  both summer and winter courses." answers Mike. "Sometimes making a fire is easy. Sometimes it can take hours."

"I've got data and information on all the outdoor survival skills: hunting, fishing, trapping, fire making, shelter making," says Dan.  "I've got so much data."

"What do you do at Camp Lejeune?" asks Mike as they drove up I95. "You're not a Marine." It is not a question.

"No, not a Marine. I wish." I am a data analyst. I collect data. Big data. Massive amounts of data."

"What do you do with all that data?" asks Mike

"We use AI and turn it into analysis, apps, presentations, and war games. Artificial intelligence is the future." says Dan.

Mike says nothing, but Dan could tell he is doubtful.

"We are building AI systems that can tell Marines what to do. With enough data, enough artificial intelligence, we can tell Marines all the answers. That’s how you win in combat." finishes Dan.

They drive along in silence for a time.

"Can we get something to eat?" asks Dan. "I didn't eat all day yesterday."

"Yeah, I didn't either," says Mike. "Let's just get up the road a little bit."

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- - - - -

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It doesn’t work like that.

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After driving another hour or more in silence, Mike says, "It doesn't work like that."

"What?" asks Dan.

"Combat. It doesn't work like that."

Dan just looks at Mike.

"There is no AI system that can hand out answers. A leader hands out missions. The answers have to be discovered in the doing of the mission."

Dan did not know what to say. Mike continues.

"Data is good, but a leader of Marines doesn't need to wait for endless data. The senior leader in charge of the operation does not have all the answers." says Mike. "The people at the very front find the answers.

"In battle, leaders say what the mission is and why. After that, combat is just a horrible mess. Sweat and blood and confusion. Some of the wounded cry out for God or for their mothers. The whole time, whether you are a squad leader, platoon leader, or company commander, -- it doesn't matter -- you have to try to figure out what you should do next. Focus on the mission. Then, figure out the next step. Figure it out. Don't wait for more data. And never wait to be told what to do."

Dan just listened.

"And it is all about little details," continues Mike. "You might see a face in a window, or a mound of dirt on the road. It might be something you smell, or a strange sound. It could be all those and more. You put them all together and you get an idea of what is happening in that instant. Then you decide and act. It is just moment by moment, OODA loop stuff. No amount of artificial intelligence or high-level data can replace that."

"OODA loop?" asks Dan.

Just then they see large temporary signs on the highway: DETOUR.

The highway was closed.

"Maybe it's ice," says Mike.

"Soon they were on the backroads west of I95.

"Where are we?" asks Dan. "I'm getting no cell reception."

"I think we are near Roanoke Rapids," answers Mike.

They drive several minutes without seeing another car. Suddenly, out of the winter mist, a motorcycle speeds past them. 

"You better slow down buddy," murmurs Mike. The motorcycle pulls in front of Mike and Dan. Then, as the road veers to the right, the motorcycle continus straight ahead, and sails over the edge of the cliff.

Mike and Dan stare in astonishment.

"What the hell," says Mike.

Mike manages to pull over on the shoulder just about where the motorcycle has disappeared over the edge. He gets out and looks down. All he can see is dark green.  He goes back to the truck and gets his coat.

"I'm going to go down the hill," Mike tells Dan. "You stay in the truck. I'll be right back."

Mike steps to the edge of the road and looks down searching for a path. He knows he has to get down to the driver. Mike takes a step down the hill. But there is no hill. It is just the tops of trees. Mike falls off the cliff, crashing through the tree branches - branch after branch after branch.

Finally, he hits the ground 50 or 60 feet below.

Glad I had Dan stay with the truck, thinks Mike as he pulls himself into a sitting position.

Just then, there is a yell and a crash and the sound of someone crashing down through the tree branches. Suddenly, Dan is flat on the ground beside Mike.

"I thought I said, stay with the truck," says Mike as Dan is still getting his bearings. "Where's your coat?"

The two men could hear the rapids wrestling nearby. They look around. Down below the road, and down below the trees, it is already dark.

"Can you walk? Are you okay?" asks Mike as he gets up and helps Dan to stand. "We can't get back to the truck from here. It's too steep. Let's go look for that motorcycle."

Just a few yards away, the motorcycle had crashed into a tree. The headlight beams into the underbrush. The rest of the bike is a wreck.

"He's dead," says Mike, after feeling the biker's neck. Mike unzips the biker's jacket and hands it to Dan. "Put it on."

"But ...." Dan starts to say.

Dan takes the jacket and puts it on.

Mike unlaces the biker's boots. He takes them off and hands them to Dan. "Get out of those dress shoes. We will have to hike out of here tomorrow."

Mike looks over the bike. On the back of the seat is elastic webbing used to hold packages on the seat. Mike takes out his knife and carefully cuts the webbing off the bike. Stretched out, it is nearly four feet long and more than a foot wide."

"Shouldn't we bury him or something?" suggests Dan, looking at the body.

"No" says Mike. "We don't have shovels and we don't have the calories to burn. Come on. Let's get to the river. Pick up firewood as we go."

In short order, Mike and Dan were at the edge of the river, sitting on logs facing each other.  Between them, a carefully stacked selection of twigs and small branches. Dan was eager to see how Mike would light the fire. Dan had studied survival fire building but had never done it. Mike looks at the pile of twigs and then at Dan. Dan waits expectantly. Then, with a flourish, Mike pulls out a lighter and lights the fire.

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What was that OODA loop?

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"This is the best way," says Mike with a smile.

The two men sit and stare at the fire. They gradually feed the fire larger and larger sticks. The fire grows. The light and heat warm them both.

"What was that OODA loop you were talking about," asks Dan.

"Observe. Orient. Decide. Act," begins Mike. "It is the loop or cycle you go through in fast moving situations. First, look at what is happening. Then, come to some conclusion about what it means. Then, decide on a course of action. Finally, act. You do this over and over and over again. If you do it faster and better than your enemy, you win."

"Sounds like data is the key," says Dan.

"You do need a little data. But once you are in contact, too much data is like putting a big log on a small fire. It just crushes everything."

Mike stands up. "Now, Dan, Dan the computer man. We need some dinner."

"Good," says Dan, standing up with him. "I'm starving. How about pizza?"

"No pizza. Something a little fresher. Come on."

Mike leads Dan to the edge of the river.  Out of the trees, on the river, it is still light. They could hear the rapids just downstream, but right where they are, the current is mostly smooth.

"Now, Dan, Dan, what would all your big data and artificial intelligence tell us about getting a fish out of this river?" asks Mike.

"Well, if I had a working phone and my computers," Dan answers. "I would get the maps and photographs of the river. I would get river depth records, history going back at least 10 years, and fishing records. Lots and lots of data. Then, we would analyze all the data with artificial intelligence until we knew everything."

"Then, with all the data, artificial intelligence would tell us how to fish?" asks Mike.

"That's right," smiles Dan confidently. "We have satellites that can peer right into this particular spot on the river. Then, we can use computer modeling and AI to find the best way to fish."

"Can your data, satellites, and AI account for this?" Mike unrolls the web net he had taken off the back of the motorcycle. He holds it over his head.

"Take off your boots."

Mike and Dan both take off their boots, roll up their pant legs, and step into the river. It is cold.

"Dan, where are the satellites, the data, the AI to tell us exactly where to place this net? Where are they?  Even if we could call them on the phone, they still would not have an answer for us."

"Look at how the current narrows right there," Mike points. It is a subtle ripple in the water. Mike has them spread the net across that particular spot, where the current narrows just slightly. They hold the net between them. They stand in the water, bent over, and wait, holding the net between them. The light fades minute by minute. Just as Dan is beginning to wonder if it will work, a striped bass, swept along by the current, crashes into the net and is caught. Mike wraps the net around it and holds up the fish in triumph.

"Not all your data, satellites, or AI could ever find the net from the motorcycle, or tell us exactly where to place it. It takes the person on the scene, with their feet actually in the water, to make those decisions." 

Mike carries the wrapped-up wiggling fish over to a large flat rock. Carefully holding the fish in the net under his arm, he reaches in his pocket and pulls out his knife. He hands it to Dan.

"Hungry?" asks Mike.

"Very." answers Dan.

"Ever cut off the head of a fish and scrape out its guts? asks Mike.

"Never. I'm not sure I can." says Dan.

"Oh yes you can, and you will. The plain truth is this fish has to die."

Mike's eyes are dark now and they drill into Dan.

"It is not a matter of data, or satellites, or AI. We are wet and cold and hungry. We need calories to get through the night. And this fish has to die. We do not need to kill all the fish. But this fish has to die."

Mike unwraps the fish and holds it firmly on the flat rock. "Now cut off its head."

Later, after a delicious dinner of blackened striped bass, Dan and Mike sit around the fire.

"Outdoor survival is not about data, or technology, or satellites."  Mike begins. "You hunt the fish. You cut off the head of the fish. You scrape out its guts. You live and the fish dies. That's all there is. Two independent wills, locked in a fatal struggle. It is not polite. It is not civilized. It is not a computer game."

"You don't need tons of data all the time," continues Mike. "The answers are not at the top. They can't be. The answers are at the scene. The answers are in the crash of a motorcycle, and the narrow spot in the river. The only people who can see the small important things are those people on the ground. The cold, tired, and hungry people on site. Those people are the ones who have to find the answers. There are no other answers."

Finally, Dan replies, "Kill the fish or the fish kills you."

"Exactly," smiles Mike. “Kill the fish.”

He pauses and then says, "I guess if I ever need tons of data, I will call Dan, Dan the computer man."

"And when I need real results in the real world," says Dan. "I will call Mike the Marine."

The two men never made it to Quantico. They ever got to audition for Outdoor Survival Challenge. Their day started at the gas station closest to the front gate of Camp Lejeune, North Carolina. Two different people. But after that one unexpected day, they were friends for life.

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