Compass Points - Balikatan Prep
Comments from Asia expert Grant Newsham
Compass Points - Balikatan Prep
Comments from Asia expert Grant Newsham
March 22, 2025
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One of the largest military exercises in the Indo-Pacific region will begin next month and, as with all important events in the region, it will be reported on by Grant Newsham. Grant Newsham is a Marine and also an Asia expert often quoted on US military developments across the Indo-Pacific.
Recently, Grant Newsham took time to provide Compass Points with exclusive comments about the Marine Corps' plan to place small Marine missile units on islands off China.
First, however, an official Marine Corps spokesman announced plans for this year's Balikatan exercise in the Philippines
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A multinational force, including U.S. Marines, is preparing for a “full battle test” involving 16,000 troops during this year’s Balikatan exercise in the Philippines, a Marine Corps spokesman said. Balikatan — a Tagalog word meaning “shoulder to shoulder” — is scheduled to run from April 21 to May 9, Marine 2nd Lt. Ben Gillman, a spokesman for the exercise, told Stars and Stripes by phone Wednesday.
Ten thousand U.S. troops will participate in the drills, now in their 40th year, alongside 6,000 service members from the Philippines, Australia and Japan, he said.
-- Stars & Stripes
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Stars & Stripes quoted Grant Newsham about the preparations for Balikatan,
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The battle simulation is an indication of just how seriously Indo-Pacific Command is taking the Chinese threat in the region, according to retired Marine Col. Grant Newsham, a senior researcher with the Japan Forum for Strategic Studies.
“The Chinese have been giving the Filipinos a hard time and have seized some Philippine maritime territory and are even claiming Palawan as belonging to China,”
-- Stars & Stripes
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Grant Newsham has long experience reporting on events in the Far East.
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Grant Newsham is a Senior Fellow with the Center for Security Policy. He also is a Research Fellow at the Japan Forum for Strategic Studies focusing on Asia/Pacific defense, political and economic matters. Newsham is a retired U.S. Marine Colonel and was the first US Marine Liaison Officer to the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force. He also served as reserve head of intelligence for Marine Forces Pacific, and was the U.S. Marine Attaché, US Embassy Tokyo on two occasions.
-- Center for Security Policy
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Recently, Grant Newsham joined Jan Jakielek’s 'American Thought Leaders' show to discuss China and the US in the Pacific today. During the program, Newsham expressed great skepticism about the the ability of the US to form any good faith deal with China. China is simply not trustworthy, says Newsham.
Compass Points wanted to know what Newsham thought about the Marine Corps' ever controversial Force Design plan that intends to deter China.
Grant Newsham provided Compass Points with his personal impressions of the Marine Corps, Force Design, and China.
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FD2030's concept of operations is bringing to mind my old company, Motorola's experience with Iridium. It was an imaginative enough idea for its time. Some would even have said it was beyond cutting edge. But technology, rivals, and the market were developing so fast that the Iridium scheme was rendered 'quaint' not so long after the roll-out -- if not even before.
Cell phones became cheap and affordable for everyone. Cellular networks pretty much covered anywhere on earth anybody would want to go. And there were a boatload of other companies offering and looking to offer these - and better - services.
So Iridium's potential market - for its very expensive and clunky to use handsets - shrunk by 95% to maybe a few guys doing oil exploration in the middle of Mongolia or suchlike and who had no other options. Motorola had expected Iridium to be THE service offering global coverage.
How wrong can you be?
Nowadays, FD2030 missile units seem to offer at most a niche capability against Chinese ships that happen to kindly show up where the Marines can get a shot at them.
Meanwhile the Army, Air Force, and Navy can whap them from ten times the distance.
Iriidum was one of the things that really shook Motorola - once one of America's most respected companies. They could have survived it, but never managed to quite recover. Nowadays....who remembers Motorola (that isn't our age)? And a good chunk of what was Motorola is now Chinese owned.
The Marine Corps gave up a lot of capability – that would be useful today – to push FD2030 forward -- just like Motorola blew a few billion that could have been used for something better -- and also hurt its reputation. Something that matters a lot in business.
Will USMC do what's necessary to correct course? At a certain time of day, I am inclined to bet on the other guys.
-- Grant Newsham
(Of course, if I was as smart as I think I am, I wouldn't have invested in the Motorola Employees Stock Purchase Program.)
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Compass Points thanks Grant Newsham for his years of service to Corps and Country and thanks all those working today to slice the waste of Force Design from the Marine Corps and rebuild and enhance the Marine Corps' global, combined arms, 9-1-1 crisis response force.
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Stars & Stripes - 03/19/2025
U.S., Philippines To Conduct Large-Scale Battle Simulation During Balikatan Drills
By Seth Robson
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American Thought Leaders - 03/09/2025
Grant Newsham joins Jan Jekielek’s American Thought Leaders
https://centerforsecuritypolicy.org/grant-newsham-joins-jan-jakieleks-american-thought-leaders/
Great insights. In addition to not having Marines already in place on islands for the mission of targeting Chinese ships, we also lack basing rights and even if we had those rights how are we going to sustain rotational forces without giving away their position?? III MEF’s motto is “fight now” but they literally don’t have units in place to do so, and if hostilities broke out then China could simply strike the relevant APODS/SPODS in Okinawa or surveil troop movements and either strike Marines on the islands they end up on or just avoid the threat radius of that piece of land. The mind boggles that anyone approved this plan, it’s fantasy
Saimehow 16,000 troops in a joint exercise over time in a limited range doesn’t scare this writer very much. Would guess the CCP, PLA and PLAN have the same thought.
How about an entire MEF MAGTF with US Navy, Army and Air Force equivalents conducting a major joint amphibious exercise. Everyone is so enamored with joint commands and efforts maybe put our combined effort right under the Chinese noses. Here you go big guy. What do you think of of this, and by the way we are doing this with a total force that is no where near where it needs to be. It would also test the Allies and their joint capabilities as well. Up to now we have been playing games with ourselves. The prize fighter is old and flabby, has a negative attitude and needs to lose weight and hit the heavy bag. After which he ought to follow the USMC boxing team at LeJeune from the main circle down to the gate and back.
Either we take on our warrior ethos and train hard or ask for negotiations with the CCP to begin now. FD2030 it turns out is just a piece of the Motorola problem our military writ large has, get back to basics, sweat in peace and avoid a war, but me really truly ready if comes.