Compass Points - Beat the Houthis
Without firing a shot
Compass Points - Beat the Houthis
Without firing a shot
July 7, 2024
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Sunday is a good day to step back from daily concerns, think more broadly, and ask bigger questions.
One bigger question is: could US policy makers use Marines to stop the Houthis without firing a shot?
The US faces a host of serious international challenges today. More international challenges will erupt tomorrow. No matter the challenges, Marines have always been an important foreign policy tool. Which sort of Marine units are most useful to US policy makers? Small units of missile Marines on Pacific islands? Or a combined arms, Marine Expeditionary Unit, forward deployed onboard Navy amphibious ships?
Some say small missile units of Marines isolated on Pacific islands are the most useful Marine units. Some say Marines on islands are a vital part of some future kill chain. Unfortunately, the Marine missile units today have no islands to set up on, no long-range hypersonic missiles to shoot, and little transportation, to, from, or around the islands. Should war break out, instead of being a small link in the kill chain, the missile Marines, with their short range, slow missiles, most likely would be out of position and not part of any kill chain at all.
Unlike missile Marines, global, forward deployed Marines are uniquely useful. Marines forward deployed around the world as apart of a Amphibious Ready Group - Marine Expeditionary Unit (ARG-MEU) are powerfully flexible. ARG-MEU Marines can arrive to any troubled shore and immediately deter, assist, and fight. When quickly augmented and reinforced, the forward deployed Marines can accomplish even more. With their full range of capabilities and inherent flexibility, forward deployed Marines give US policy makers extraordinary options.
How extraordinary are forward deployed ARG-MEUs? Merely as a thought experiment, could US policy makers today use forward deployed Marines to stop the Houthis without firing a shot?
The Houthis operating in Yemen are an irregular force that receives weapons, funding, and direction from Iran. Beginning in the last few months of 2023 the Houthis began firing drones, rockets, and missiles toward Israel and toward ships in the Red Sea.
Heroic efforts by the US Navy have destroyed most of the Houthis weapons in flight. Still, commercial shipping through the Red Sea is down nearly 50%. Military Times keeps a running total of Houthi related incidents in and around the Red Sea. It has become clear that the Houthis will not stop until either they are forced to stop or until Iran withdraws weapons, funding, and support.
Iran has felt no pain for its support of the Houthis, so they continue to arm the Houthis. Is there a way to make Iran feel pain for supporting the Houthis so they withdraw their support? The Center on Global Energy Policy has reported that
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Since 2012, the United States has imposed wide-ranging sanctions on Iran’s oil exports
-- Center on Global Energy Policy
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In addition, more sanctions were established just recently in May 2024 both on Iran and on purchasers of sanctioned Iranian oil. Unfortunately, over the years the sanctions on Iranian oil have been frequently lifted and indifferently enforced.
With sanctions against Iranian oil already in place, is there anything the US could consider doing to end the growing Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping? One approach would begin with the US announcing it suspects that rogue elements inside Iran may be shipping missiles to the Houthis using oil container ships for cover. To end the weapons shipments, and protect international shipping, the US announces it will impose a temporary quarantine of the Iranian oil port at Bandar-e Jask. Iranian oil sales come through two terminals. Most Iranian oil comes through Kharg Island, at the north end of the Persian Gulf. A small percentage of Iranian oil is shipped from the peninsula port, Bandar-e Jask, on Iran’s Gulf of Oman coast, just south of the Strait of Hormuz.
How could the US enforce a quarantine on Jask? Marines! The Marines of the 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit aboard the USS Wasp a big deck amphibious assault ship, with the dock landing ship USS Oak Hill, and amphibious transport dock, USS New York are in the Mediterranean now and could be sent to Jask to enforce the quarantine. Despite US sanction authority already in place, the oil shipments from Jask would not be harmed or turned back as part of a quarantine. The oil ships coming out of Jask would only be delayed in the search for weapons. As the Marines conducted a thorough quarantine at Jask, the oil shipments out of Jask would be delayed more and more. And if no weapons were found at Jask, the US would announce that a full quarantine of Kharg Island would be next.
The quarantine solution would use Marines of 24th MEU to enforce a temporary quarantine of oil shipments from Jask to search for weapons. Then, the US could threaten that the next step would be to put in place a full quarantine of Kharg Island. A full quarantine of both Jask and Kharg Island would delay all Iranian oil shipments to China. China wants the flow of oil from Iran to continue without delay. Before the oil shipments from Iran could be interrupted, China would put pressure on Iran. Iran would stop supporting the Houthis. The Houthis would stop attacking Red Sea shipping. The result would be that the Marines from the 24th MEU by enforcing the quarantine at Jask would very shortly stop all Houthi attacks without firing a shot.
The US faces a host of serious international challenges today. More international challenges will erupt tomorrow. No matter the challenges, Marines have always been an important foreign policy tool. Which is a more powerful policy tool for US policy makers? Missile Marines on Pacific islands? Or combined arms Marines, like the 24 MEU, forward deployed on amphibious ships? No matter the international challenge that erupts tomorrow, US policy makers need the extraordinary power and flexibility of amphibious ships patrolling the globe with a well-trained, well equipped, and highly capable force of Marines.
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Reuters - 07/22/2021
Iran opens oil terminal in Gulf of Oman to bypass Strait of Hormuz
By Reuters
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Military Times - 07/05/2024
All the Houthi-US Navy incidents in the Middle East (that we know of)
By Jonathan Lehrfeld, Diana Stancy and Geoff Ziezulewicz
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Navy Times - 06/30/2024
USS Wasp, Marines enter Mediterranean amid Israel-Hezbollah tensions
By Tara Copp
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Center on Global Energy Policy - 05/28/2024
Q&A | Potential Impacts of New US Sanctions on Iran’s Oil Exports to China
By Erica Downs & Edward Fishman
Sounds great in theory! But in reality, the Navy does not have the amphibs that are currently needed. Not only are the number of amphib ships lacking but the maintenance on the current amphibs is beyond horrible! Before we start talking about here an ARG, there an ARG, everywhere an ARG we need a realistically better maintenance cycle than we have now. You need not look any further than the USS Boxer..........200 million dollars spent and how many years in maintenance? It is the equivalent of a hanger queen! To add insult to injury the USS Bon Homme Richard burned at the pier for 3 days and ultimately had to be scrapped! We must do better.
https://news.usni.org/2024/07/05/uss-boxer-repairs-complete-marines-preparing-to-return-on-deployment?utm_campaign=dfn-ebb&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sailthru
"Rudder repairs to USS Boxer (LHD-4) are complete and the crew has left to test the fixes at sea, Navy officials have told USNI News. Meanwhile, the Marines are preparing to return to sea to continue a deployment that was interrupted by the damaged ship."
Finally