Compass Points - Card Playing in Khartoum
And prayers for the diplomats and families
April 22, 2023
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In every card game from poker to go-fish, there is one unwritten rule: always hold-on to strong cards. In poker, if you are holding four aces, do not throw those away. Your hand is strong. You are on the verge of winning.
Right now, in April 2023, 19,000 Americans and thousands more from other Western nations, currently living and working in Sudan, are in tremendous danger. Western governments are holding late night meetings trying to figure out how to protect their citizens, particularly those in the capital city of Khartoum where fighting is most intense. Already hundreds have been killed and thousands injured. The main airport has been captured and cannot be used for evacuation. Diplomats and their families are hiding in their basements praying for help.
The United States has good news and bad news for those in danger in Khartoum. The good news is decades ago the Marine Corps developed a rescue force, extremely adaptable and capable, and embarked the force on amphibious ships. The Marine Air Ground (Logistics) Task Force (MAGTF) is always nearby and always ready to arrive just off the coast of troubled nations and deter hostilities or take action to end them.
Traditionally, the Marine Corps with their Navy partners kept three Amphibious Readiness Groups / Marine Expeditionary Units (ARG/MEU) MAGTFs on patrol around the globe. With three ARG/MEU MAGTFs always on patrol, diplomats in danger knew the Marines were on the way.
In the case of crisis in Sudan, the Mediterranean MEU, at the first report of trouble, would turn, steam to the Suez Canal, transit the canal, sail south down the Red Sea to Port Sudan. From there, a combination of Marine rotor aviation and ground convoys, guarded by Marine infantry, armor, and air would proceed to Khartoum and evacuate the diplomats and their families.
That is the good news.
Unfortunately, there is also some bad news. When the current Marine Corps leadership issued Force Design in March of 2020, the document made it clear that:
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The legacy 2 MEB JFEO requirement is unsuitable as a force-sizing construct.
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That is a convoluted way of telling the Navy that, while in the past the Marine Corps needed at least 38 amphibious ships to keep Marines patrolling the globe, now the Marine Corps would no longer fight for at least 38 ships. Under Force Design, the Marine Corps would be willing to settle for many fewer amphibious ships. The Navy was astonished at the Marine decision, but the Navy came to realize it saved them Navy ship building dollars.
The result, three years later, is that due to lack of amphibious ships, the number of Marine MEUs constantly on patrol onboard ships has dropped from 3 MEUs to only 2 MEUs on patrol, and sometimes only a single MEU on patrol around the entire globe. This is not solely the problem of current Marine Corps leadership – it has been a problem growing over more than a decade -- but the unwillingness of current Marine leadership to push for at least 38 amphibious ships has made the problem much worse.
What that means today for the scared and lonely Khartoum diplomats and their families praying in their basement is that there is currently no MEU in the Mediterranean. No MEU to turn, transit through the Suez Canal, steam to Port Sudan and come to the rescue. The powerful, adaptable, capable Marine MEU is not coming to the rescue.
The USNI News - Fleet and Marine tracker for 17 April, 2023 shows the America ARG is in Sasebo, Japan while the Makin Island ARG is off the coast of the Philippines. There is no ARG/MEU in the Mediterranean to come to the rescue.
The Marine ARG/MEU of the past would be the perfect answer for the trouble in Sudan.
Shortly after Marine Corps leadership introduced Force Design 2030, author Daniel Goure wrote an article, "Why The U.S. Navy And Marines’ ARG/MEU Is America’s Premier Stand-In Force" emphasizing the power and ability of the Marine ARG/MEU.
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. . . A premier stand-in force already exists. This is the Navy/Marine Corps’ Amphibious Ready Group/Marine Expeditionary Unit (ARG/MEU). The ARG/MEU is unique as a U.S. military formation due to its ability to operate from international waters, the breadth of its capabilities, and its overall flexibility. One of the singular virtues of the ARG/MEU construct is that it can support the full range of peacetime military missions day-to-day, but transition to a wartime footing seamlessly and without delays. In wartime, the ARG/MEU is already standing in and present in theaters of interest. Particularly if supported by one or more air- and missile defense-capable ships, it can conduct surface and air amphibious assaults, launch precision airstrikes, engage in electronic warfare, and offer logistics support to units on land.
. . . The ARG/MEU is an excellent capability with which to address the need for operations in the so-called “grey zone” of conflict below the level of overt hostilities. This past year, the ARG/MEU has demonstrated its unique ability to respond to crises and support the needs of the Combatant Commanders. The Iwo Jima ARG and the 24th MEU were part of the immediate response to evacuation efforts at the Kabul Airport in Afghanistan. In addition to deploying the MEU on the ground, the ARG/MEU conducted Harrier and MV-22 operations. Simultaneously, the USS Arlington (LPD-24) was sent to provide earthquake relief support for Haiti, deploying with about two hundred Marines, a Fleet Surgical Team, and a detachment of 2 MH-60R helicopters. In late 2020, the Makin Island ARG, deployed with the 15th MEU, was part of the U.S. naval force that supported the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Somalia.
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The current leadership of the Marine Corps, by telling the Navy three years ago that Marines did not need as much amphibious shipping, has degraded Marine Corps responsiveness and capabilities. Today, instead of three MEUs always on patrol around the globe, now there is only enough amphibious shipping, not for three MEUs, but for only two MEUs on patrol, and sometimes only one. In addition, under Force Design, today’s MEU has been stripped of critical units, equipment, and capabilities.
Fully capable Marine amphibious MAGTFs on patrol, onboard amphibious ships, are the Marine Corps' four aces. The MAGTF is the winning hand for the Marine Corps and for the Nation. It is astonishing that current Marine leadership has chosen to break the most fundamental law of card games. 'always hold-on to your strong cards.'
The American people believe and expect their Marine Corps to be always ready and able to come to the rescue. Congress should expect the same. If Congress wants testimony about the importance of the Marine Corps MEU onboard amphibious ships, they can take testimony from author Daniel Goure who has a keen perception of the importance of the ARG/MEU. If Congress needs more testimony about the importance of the amphibious Marine MEU, perhaps they could hold a zoom call with the U.S. diplomats trapped in Khartoum.
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1945 (19fortyfive.com) 10/28/2021
Why The U.S. Navy And Marines’ ARG/MEU Is America’s Premier Stand-In Force
By Daniel Goure
A 1945 Contributing Editor, Dan Gouré, Ph.D., is a vice president at the public-policy research think tank Lexington Institute. Gouré has a background in the public sector and U.S. federal government.
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USNI News - Fleet and Marine Tracker: April 17, 2023
https://news.usni.org/category/fleet-tracker
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The Guardian (theguardian.com) 04/21/2023
US and UK troops moving close to Sudan for possible evacuation
By Dan Sabbagh, Defence and security editor, Patrick Wintour, Diplomatic editor, and Julian Borger in Washington.
. . . However, a US source indicated that troops might only be deployed to facilitate the departure of US embassy personnel and cautioned that due to the uncertain security situation in Khartoum other Americans in the country should not expect a wider US government coordinated evacuation at this time.
Here is Senator Sullivan taking the Navy to task because there are not 31 Amphibious Ships in the Navyshipbuilding plan. As the Senator states repeatedly, "Its the LAW”. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J0Kvr8VKaGc The intent of the current military strategy is to support the National Security Strategy in a Great Power Competition and a "peer-to-peer" war with the CCP. Is the US and our military leaders missing the "Great Power Competition" part of this strategy? Is not the purpose of the Great Power Competition to avoid a war with the CCP? Why not use the Great Power Competition Strategy to expand the number of MEUs providing the opportunities to demonstrate its unique inherent abilities and flexibility. Apparently 31 amphibious ships will barely support two MEUs. A few years ago requests from the Marine Corps to support 3 MEUs was 38amphibious ships. The 3 MEUS supported a 1950s Cold War containment strategy. Now we have the CCP extending its influence GLOBALLY. Instead of working to maintain 2 sometimes 3 MEUs why are we not expanding to 5MEUs? (One in the Med., 2 in the Pacific, 1 in the Indian Ocean, and 1 in the North Atlantic and the Baltics.) If it takes 38 amphibs to float 3 MEUs that means, we are going to need somewhere close to 60 amphibs to support 5MEUs. I have to question if the latest Sudan evacuation using 100 Special Forces personnel and 3 MH-47s helos, evacuating 70 embassy staff is a token political operation. According to the news reports there are 14,000 US citizens In Sudan, that means there are only 13,930 bodies left to evacuate. In addition, while the Navy has been letting their amphibious fleet atrophy, the US Army has rebuilt its “Logistic Support Vehicles” (LSV) fleet. The biggest “vehicle” is the General Frank S. Besson Class LSV. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Frank_S._Besson-class_support_vessel)The US Army ordered 8 of this class and all are now operational. Looks like the Commandant has been talking to the wrong military service when it comes to acquiring amphibs.
Will be interesting to see what capabilities FD2030 will be able to provide the Combatant Commander for contingencies in Sudan and if we will see the Army step front and center to do what Marines once did.