Compass Points - Doubts on Drones
Limits of First Person View Drones
Compass Points - Doubts on Drones
Limits of First Person View Drones
June 29, 2025
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Over the last week, Compass Points readers have generated online and off a cornucopia of comments, insights, and analysis. Compass Points appreciates all readers who in their own ways are continuing to build the discussion about a stronger Marine Corps, and also thanks all our readers who served as seminar leaders this week by providing topics, articles, and comments. Many thanks!
Sunday is a good day for reflection and today is a good day for reflecting on drones.
Drones and particularly First Person View Drones are a new addition to the tools of war. There is little doubt that FPV drones will play a role on future battlefields. Still, in actual use, FPV drones have more limits than are typically discussed. Author Jakub Jajcay reports on his personal experience using FPV drones in Ukraine in his War on the Rocks commentary, "I Fought in Ukraine and Here’s Why FPV Drones Kind of Suck."
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In 2024 and 2025, I served for six months as an international volunteer on a first-person view attack drone team in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. My team was deployed in the Donbas region, in one of the hottest sectors of the front. When I joined the team, I was excited to work with a cutting-edge tool. By the end of my deployment, I was a bit disillusioned. Let me tell you why.
-- Jakub Jajcay, War on the Rocks
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What are FPV drones? Jajcay explains.
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First-person view drones are unmanned aerial vehicles with four propellers located at the four corners of the craft, roughly in the shape of a square of seven to 12 inches in length on each side. They are controlled by an operator wearing virtual-reality goggles that receive the image from the drone’s forward-facing camera (hence the name first-person view). The most common types of first-person view drones are single-use: They fly directly into their target, where they detonate an explosive charge of up to 1.5 kilograms. These drones are touted as a cheap and accessible solution that can give troops on the tactical level their own organic precision-strike capability. They can supposedly react quickly and strike moving targets or targets in difficult-to-reach locations, such as bunkers, basements, or inside buildings.
-- Jakub Jajcay, War on the Rocks
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Jajcay concludes with doubts about drones.
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All that said, if a member of a NATO military were hypothetically to ask me whether NATO countries should acquire first-person view drone capabilities, based on my experience and given the current state of the technology, I would probably say no, whether they are radio-controlled or fiber-optic. The vast majority of first-person view drone missions can be completed more cheaply, effectively, or reliably by other assets. Furthermore, other authors have noted that drones still do not come close to matching the effects that can be achieved by massed artillery fires. Additionally, experts on artillery systems consistently note the greater reliability and range of artillery.
-- Jakub Jajcay, War on the Rocks
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Jajcay is not alone in his cautions about drones.
An article from ISDP - Institute for Security and Development Policy, "Limitations of Drones and the Future of American Air Superiority" warns about the capabilities of even next generation drones.
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With respect to next-generation drones, advancements in air defense technology do not remain static while drone technology evolves to enhance offensive capabilities. Recent developments underscore several promises and advancements in air defenses, particularly against UAVs. Unlike current UAVs, even if future drones become fully stealth, advancements in sensor acuity, multi-sensory connectivity, big data and machine learning, AI-enabled multi-static radars, can enable accurate radar returns and possibly even defeat stealth technology. In this light, excessive reliance on unmanned systems to support offensive capabilities could be risky and compromise air-superiority.
— ISDP
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Another report on drones, "Countering the Drone Threat" has its own warning about drones in future warfare.
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Despite some claims to the contrary, drones have not revolutionized every aspect of warfare, and traditional systems—such as armor, manned warships, and fighter jets—will continue their prominent roles in military operations.
-- Heritage "Countering the Drone Threat"
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Do drones and particularly FPV drones have a place on future battlefields? Almost certainly. Like every weapon, however, drones have limitations and drone defenses continually advance. Even as drones and drone defenses advance, it is worth noting the words of the great military thinker, Col John Boyd: “Remember, terrain doesn’t wage war. Machines don’t wage war. People do and they use their mind!”
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War on the Rocks - 06/26/2025
I Fought in Ukraine and Here’s Why FPV Drones Kind of Suck
By Jakub Jajcay
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Heritage - 06/04/2025
Countering the Drone Threat: Steps for the U.S. Military
Authors: Wilson Beaver and Ka' Von Johnson
https://www.heritage.org/defense/report/countering-the-drone-threat-steps-the-us-military
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ISDP
Limitations of Drones and the Future of American Air Superiority
https://www.isdp.eu/limitations-of-drones-and-the-future-of-american-air-superiority/
After reading today's post, I'm reminded of a particularly hard hitting paragraph in a recent article by David Betz and M.L.R. Smith, "Smart Weapons, Dumb Assumptions: Western Strategic Delusions Meet Industrial Reality in Ukraine." The paragraph reads: "Western military models aren't faltering for lack of virtue, but because they rest on assumptions that, if they were ever viable, no longer apply. The future, inconveniently, failed to arrive on schedule. And the past, just as rudely, refuses to stay buried."
The article clearly calls into question the central argument of Force Design that the defense is now the dominant form of warfare.
You can read the full article at: https://www.militarystrategymagazine.com/exclusives/smart-weapons-dumb-assumptions-western-strategic-delusions-meet-industrial-reality-in-ukraine/
Grok:”Drones complement rather than replace artillery and tanks in conflicts like Ukraine and Israel’s engagements with Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis due to their limitations in firepower, vulnerability to defenses, and tactical focus. They lack the destructive power and resilience of artillery and tanks, which are critical for sustained, high-intensity warfare. However, drones enhance these systems by providing real-time surveillance, guiding precise artillery and tank strikes, and delivering cost-effective, low-risk attacks. In Ukraine, drones like FPVs compensate for artillery shortages and account for 60–70% of equipment damage by targeting or guiding fire. In Israel, drones like Skylarks and Harops improve targeting and counter asymmetric threats, but conventional forces remain dominant against fortified positions or sophisticated defenses.”.