Compass Points - Escalation
China on the move in the Pacific
Compass Points - Escalation
China on the move in the Pacific
August 7, 2024
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With the Teddy Roosevelt Carrier Strike Group leaving the Pacific and heading to the Middle East, China is taking action. In a report dated August 7, 2024 Reuters reveals "China's military organised a joint combat patrol on Wednesday over the sea and airspace near the Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea . . ." Using military ships and planes in the South China is a new escalation. In the past China has used coast guard or civilian vessels. The escalation also comes after an agreement last month between China and the Philippines to reduce conflicts in the South China Sea.
China's actions came at the same time the US and allies in the Pacific are conducting joint maneuvers. AP reports, "U.S., Australia, Canada, Philippines Stage Naval And Air Force Maneuvers In Disputed South China Sea"
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MANILA, Philippines -- The United States, Australia, Canada and the Philippines held air and naval maneuvers Wednesday in what they said was a show of force to promote the rule of law in the disputed South China Sea, where China has increasingly asserted its territorial claims. In an apparent response, China said it conducted air and sea combat patrols on the same day.
Adm. Samuel Paparo, who heads the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, and top military and defense commanders from Australia, Canada and the Philippines said in a joint statement that they “stand together to address common maritime challenges and underscore our shared dedication to upholding international law and the rules-based order.” They said they were staging the two-day exercises to uphold unhindered passage in the Indo-Pacific region.
China has long claimed much of the South China Sea, a key global trade and security route, and vowed to defend its territorial interests at all costs. Its claims overlap those of smaller coastal states, including the Philippines and Vietnam, hampering their access to traditional fishing areas and disrupting oil and gas exploration in their internationally recognized exclusive economic zones.
-- AP News
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Meanwhile, Reuters is reporting that high level talks in Australia are underway: "U.S.-Australia Talks Focus On China's 'Coercive Behaviour'"
What can the US military do to deter and defend against China's military patrols in the South China Sea? What can the US do to deter China's 'Coercive Behaviours'?
The Marine Corps, apparently, has the perfect answer: Stand-in-Forces.
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Marine Stand-in Forces are at that tactical edge in combat. They deter by their presence alongside our Allies and partners, and their ability to conduct distributed operations, sense and make sense, and hold adversaries at risk through organic or joint fires.
-- USMC FRAGO 01-2024
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Unfortunately, Marine Stand-in-Forces do not seem to be "at that tactical edge." They do not seem to "deter by their presence." China does not seem deterred. China does not seem to pause for even a moment because of Marine Stand-in-Forces. Where are Marine Stand-in-Forces? From what Philippine islands are Marine Stand-in-Forces projecting deterrence? From where exactly are Marine Stand-in-Forces holding, "adversaries at risk"?
In his FRAGO 01-2024, the current Commandant goes on to boast, "Marine Stand-in Forces. . . are the eyes and ears for the joint force, ideally positioned within the WEZ to conduct both reconnaissance and counter-reconnaissance, to act as a Joint Fires integrator for the combined force, and to strike the enemy from land and air to sea with organic sensors and precision fires, when necessary." That is a mouthful of nice sounding words. When does all this get started?
In less than 5 years, the US won World War II. In five years of focus and finance, the Marine Corps has not distributed Stand-in-Forces in the Pacific. China's military is patrolling the South China Sea today. China is a global threat, but they are a particular, ongoing threat from the Aleutians to Australia. The Marines are known for always being the first to fight. Where are the Marines?
In the latest escalation, "China's military organised a joint combat patrol on Wednesday over the sea and airspace near the Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea . . ." The battle to deter China is underway now. Instead of "Standing-in" perhaps Marines should "Stand-on" the decks of amphibious ships and patrol 24/7/365 from the Aleutians to Australia, showing the flag, reassuring allies, responding to crises, and, every hour of every day, performing a small but vital role in actually deterring China.
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AP News - 08/07/2024
U.S., Australia, Canada, Philippines Stage Naval And Air Force Maneuvers In Disputed South China Sea
By Jim Gomez
The Stand-in Force is a bad dream. Its subsonic, short range Naval Strike Missiles will be ineffective against PLAN warships. Its lack of survivable mobility will preclude positioning, repositioning, and logistics. Its lack of robust and resilient combined arms makes it vulnerable to being easily overrun by a determined enemy. It cannot deter. It cannot sink PLAN warships. It cannot survive during hostilities.
Where are the Marines? The last I heard they were trying to figure out how to clean and inspect barracks and building wheeled amphibious vehicles that can operate only under limited conditions and terrain. That seems to be alright since the leadership has self imposed limited operational capability throughout the force. Semper Fi