Compass Points - Expanding Conflicts
Global Challenges Increase
Compass Points - Expanding Conflicts
Global Challenges Increase
September 30, 2024
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There are three major conflicts ongoing around the world. One is the ongoing conflict in the South China Sea between China's forces against forces of the Philippines and allies including the US. The second is the ongoing conflict between Russian forces against forces of Ukraine and allies including the US. The third is the ongoing conflict in the Middle East among Iranian proxies Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthi forces against forces of Israel and allies including the US.
All three conflicts are expanding. Any of the three or all three could erupt at any time into a broader conflict. How serious are these conflicts? Just look at the situation in the Middle East. Recently, the Houthis launched a complex, coordinated attack on US Navy combat ships in the Red Sea.
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US Navy warships shot down a barrage of Houthi missiles and drones in the Red Sea on Friday in what a Pentagon spokesperson described as a "complex attack."
Sabrina Singh, the deputy Pentagon spokesperson, said no US warships were damaged or struck by the Houthi munitions, and there were no injuries to American personnel.
"We did see a complex attack launched from the Houthis that ranged from cruise missiles and [drones]," Singh told reporters at a briefing. "My understanding is that those were either engaged and shot down or failed."
The Houthis said earlier that they targeted three Navy warships with nearly two dozen ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones. The Iran-backed rebels claimed to score direct hits on the vessels, although US officials pushed back on this and there's no credible evidence to support it.
-- Business Insider
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In response to the latest attacks and other developments in the Middle East Politico is reporting that US Secretary of Defense Austin is once again beefing up US forces in the region.
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Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Sunday ordered the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and its attached destroyers to remain in the region, just a month after rerouting them to the Middle East while they were on a planned deployment to the Pacific. The directive comes days after the USS Harry S. Truman carrier strike group left its home port in Virginia for a scheduled cruise, potentially creating a two- carrier presence in the Middle East for the second time since the summer.
The Pentagon also announced that the U.S. will be sending additional “air-support capabilities in the coming days,” and that the USS Wasp Amphibious Ready Group will remain in the eastern Mediterranean. The group includes the amphibious ships USS New York and USS Oak Hill, along with thousands of Marines capable of performing civilian evacuations from Lebanon if necessary. The Wasp, which can launch small boats ashore, is also loaded with Marine-flown F-35B fighter planes, giving military planners an extra aerial punch if needed.
Those ships have been patrolling the Mediterranean since June and have been at sea since April. The Wasp group replaced a similar group of amphibious ships led by the USS Bataan, which had its own deployment to the region extended several times and ended up spending eight months at sea before heading home in March. Meanwhile, Austin ordered additional U.S. forces to be ready to deploy, “elevating our preparedness to respond to various contingencies,” the Pentagon said.
-- Politico
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In further Middle East developments, Israel continues its campaign to fully defeat the Hamas. Israel has launched a coordinated series of attacks that have destroyed a good portion of Hezbollah leadership. And Israel has increased its attacks on Houthi forces in Yemen.
All this escalation in the Middle East is just one major conflict zone. There are similar dangers in the South China Sea and in Ukraine. Is there a real danger that China might attack more broadly in the South China Sea, Russian might attack more broadly in Eastern Europe, and Iran might attack more broadly in the Middle East? Obviously yes, there is tremendous danger that one, or two, or all three conflict zones could erupt into much broader conflicts.
Strangely some commentators are saying there is no need to be concerned with these three conflict zones. Some commentators make the unpersuasive argument that China, Russia, and Iran would never expand the conflicts because they are so intimidated and afraid of the US. Given the seriousness of all three conflict zones, it is incredible and inexplicable that anyone could seriously argue there is no danger.
More level headed and experienced military experts know that it is best to focus not on enemy intentions which are difficult to gauge, but instead concentrate on enemy capabilities which are much easier to evaluate. Does China have the capability to stage a sudden, much larger attack in the Pacific? Does Russian have the capability to stage a sudden, much larger attack in Eastern Europe? Does Iran have the capability to stage a sudden, much larger attack in the Middle East? The answer to all three questions is yes. Undoubtedly, the enemies of the US have very dangerous capabilities right now that could be used in unexpected ways to strike suddenly at the US and her allies around the globe.
It is tempting for some to pretend or to hope that there is little danger of global war. But pretending and hoping are not as useful as taking immediate, serious preparations for war. History has shown again and again that to maintain peace, prepare for war. The US needs to move faster and get more serious about preparing for war. The Marine Corps needs to do the same.
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Business Insider - 09/27/2024
US Navy warships fought off a 'complex' missile and drone attack in the Red Sea
By Jake Epstein
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Politico - 09/29/2024
Austin Orders U.S. Forces To Be Ready To Deploy As Middle East Heats Up
The aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln will remain in the region after Israel kills Hezbollah leader.
By Paul McLeary
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/29/austin-order-deploy-middle-east-00181582
With severely limited MAGTF capabilities, our Corps is relegated to be a "reactionary force" instead of any pro-active positioned force able to handle ANY threat, thanks to FD2030!
After every major conflict, there have been some who have criticized the Marine Corps for being a "second land army." But isn't it fortuitus for the Marine Corps and the Nation, that the Marine Corps has been able to be a second land army when needed?? This proves that a robust Marine Corps can fight in any conflict anywhere in the world: deserts, jungles, and snow. And it can fight any foe. Right now, the Marines in the Pacific can only fight (in theory) as a clandestine missile force in the littoral area. If I'm correct, the Littoral Regiments only have a battalion's worth of infantry (the Littoral Combat Team). This battalion will consist of three rifle companies and an anti-ship missile company. It will not have a weapons company. Maybe the battalion will have an artillery battery attached. Maybe not. It will not be able to conduct sustained combat. The I and II MEFs have become little more than rifle divisions with little artillery support (seven artillery gun batteries for a 3 division force, plus the seven HIMARS batteries). Organically, if you eliminate Marine Air, combined with only seven tube artillery batteries, the heaviest weapon the divisions will have will be the 81mm mortars of the battalion weapons company. I had no artillery experience, but I believe HIMARS is of little value in the close-in battle. While we have no question about the individual Marines, can this force participate in anything other than commando raids or embassy evacuations? Can this force threaten Chinese forces in other parts of the world? Can it fight the Iranians? Will it be of value in Europe with no organic direct firepower support? Surprisingly, there is an article in the October Gazette: "The Future of Marine Corps Direct Fire Support" in which the author, Lt Greuble, argues for some type of assault gun for the Marine Corps. In essence he is requesting the need for some form of mobile protected firepower: ie a light tank. A robust Marine Corps organised as a second land army with mobile armored direct fire support and HIMARS precision strike missiles can be lethal anywhere in the world against any foe.