Compass Points - Fantasy Island
Reporter gets to fly to remote island.
Compass Points - Fantasy Island
Reporter gets to fly to remote island.
May 28, 2024
.
There once was a TV show about a fantasy island where dreams came true and everything was fun and easy. Perhaps the island was Itbayat.
.
Niharika Mandhana, a former reporter for Al Jazeera, and now the Wall Street Journal’s bureau chief for Southeast Asia, accompanied Marines on an exercise on the island of Itbayat, Philippines. Itbayat is a "little island nearly 100 miles from the southern tip of Taiwan." The reporter was much impressed by the Marines and the exercise. She described a small platoon of Marines arriving by Army helicopters as a force arriving in "waves" with supplies and equipment for a three day stay and titled her article, "America’s New Island Fighters Are Preparing for Conflict—a Stone’s Throw From Taiwan."
.
The reporter seemed to enjoy her time on fantasy island and swallowed completely the explanation that the exercise was merely,
.
==============
.
. . . fine-tuning a strategy they see as critical to fighting China in its neighborhood—from strings of islands close to it.
. . . In a conflict, these marines would move forward—as far and as fast as possible—with missiles and radars. They would fan out in small groups across islands and coastlines. Then, they would keep moving so that China’s missiles, sensors and drones wouldn’t find them.
The adversary would have to “expend an awful lot of resources to figure out where we are and what we’re doing,” said Col. John Lehane, the commander of the 2,500-strong Hawaii-based regiment. “We complicate his decision-making.”
. . . Part of the marines’ goal is to bog down China in the early stages of a conflict, buying time for other U.S. forces to get in place.
-- Wall St. Journal
.
==============
.
Does the Wall St. Journal article dig into the fundamental issues about the "New Island Fighters"? Readers can review the entire article and decide for themselves. But here are six snippets from just the start of the article.
.
1. "fine-tuning a strategy"
Fine-tuning? The entire plan for "New Island Fighters" is in need of a complete overhaul. For example, one of the keys to establishing the "New Island Fighters" rocket and radar units on islands off the Chinese coast is getting permission to establish the units on remote foreign islands. The reporter might have asked if the Marines have been granted permission from the Philippine government to establish anti-ship rockets and radars on Itbayat or on any other Philippine islands? The answer is no such permission has been granted by the Philippine government and none is likely to be granted. The Philippines do not want American Marine rocket or missile units on their territory. It would arouse the anger and perhaps preemptive strikes from China -- something that every country in the Pacific is trying to avoid. Instead of allowing American Marines to establish themselves permanently in the Philippines, the Philippines are setting up their own military units on defense on forward islands.
.
Without permission from foreign governments for Marines to establish rocket and radar units, there is no fine-tuning and there is no strategy.
.
2. "critical to fighting China"
Even if Marine "New Island Fighters" could find a home on some remote island, would this be "critical to fighting China"? An authoritative war game study by CSIS about the invasion of Taiwan found Marine defensive units were largely out of place, out of the fighting, and mostly irrelevant. In World War II the Japanese thought it would be "critical to fighting the US" to establish small Japanese defensive units on widely scattered islands in the Pacific. Those Japanese island units were first cut-off and isolated and then either bypassed or destroyed by Marines.
.
3. "keep moving"
How are the "New Island Fighters" going to "keep moving"? The rocket and radar units have rockets, missiles, and radars that are difficult to move. Did the reporter notice the Marines on Itbayat landed in Army helos? Why not ask how the "New Island Fighters" are going to "keep moving" if they do not have enough Marine helos? The Marines divested themselves of too many aviation assets for transportation and support and are now scrambling to bring back divested squadrons. The reporter might also ask how much has the Army budgeted to transport Marines by helos around Pacific islands? The answer is zero.
.
Without sufficient air assets, the "New Island Fighters" might turn to shallow draft vessels to move among islands. The Marine Corps says it needs 35 of the small Landing Ship Medium (LSM). But not one ship has been built and the Marine Corps and Navy still cannot agree on whether the ship should be built to commercial standards or military standards. Delays mean higher costs which means it will be even longer until LSMs are constructed -- if an LSM is ever constructed.
.
Without sufficient air or water assets, how will the "New Island Fighters" keep moving?
.
4. "China's missiles, sensors, and drones wouldn't find them"
Can't find them? More like, can't miss them. While the reporter mentions radars in passing, the reporter did not display any understanding of the Marines main radar system, the G/ATOR. The AN/TPS-80 Ground/Air Task Oriented Radar is the United States Marine Corps Air Surveillance/Air Defense and Air Traffic Control Radar. It is a capable system, but it is not small and it is an active radar. That means it must be turned on to operate and once it turns on it reveals its location immediately and continuously. It is like the "Hot Light" turning on at Krispy Kreme. The G/ATOR makes the Marine island units easy for China to find, fix, and destroy. A single Chinse cruise missile can do the job. Or China can just bypass and ignore the small units.
.
5. "We complicate [China's] decision-making."
The "New Island Fighters" without sufficient air or water transportation are stuck where they are. They are easy to find and are hardly a threat with only a handful of subsonic weapons. China will be faced not with a complicated decision but an easy choice: 1. Bypass and ignore, or 2. Destroy in place.
.
6. "bog down China in the early stages of a conflict."
The "New Island Fighters" will not be able to "bog down China." It is unlikely China will even notice the Marines. Worse, the isolated, immobile, defensive units will not be able commence offense operations if conflict does erupt.
.
How will the "New Island Fighters" be able to "bog down China" in the early stages of a conflict?" At best Marines on islands will have a few Naval Strike Missile as their ground launched anti-ship missile. The NSM has an unclassified range of about 115 miles. The Marines are acquiring 14 NSM batteries and 3 TLAM batteries. The TLAMs have a range of over 1,000 miles. Both missiles are subsonic. Marines will have at best only a few rounds. If the Marines survive being taken out by single Chinese cruise missile, what will Marines do once their small supply of missiles is expended? They will not be able to be re-supplied, reinforced, or evacuated. They will be cut off like the small units of Japanese on Pacific islands during World War II.
.
Perhaps the "New Island Fighters" could "bog down China" by switching from sitting on defense to locating and closing with Chinese military forces. Sadly, the "New Island Fighters" have few combined arms capabilities, little logistics, and hardly any transportation. The key to Marine victories has always been combined arms, fire and maneuver. But the "New Island Fighters" have no combined arms to provide fires and have no way to transport themselves to maneuver. Maneuver is much more than movement alone, but movement often plays a critical piece.
.
The reporter might have gone on to inquire, how will the "New Island Fighters" continue to serve as the Nation's worldwide 9-1-1 force? The Marine Corps has been an always ready amphibious crisis response force. If Marine dollars and attention are focused on creating a defensive sitting and sensing force in the Pacific, how will they have the units, equipment, and capabilities to respond to worldwide crises?
.
The reporter's simplistic view of the Marine island strategy is reminiscent of a BBC reporter who once said,
.
==============
.
The new plan sees the Marines as fighting dispersed operations across chains of islands. Units will be smaller, more spread out, but packing a much bigger punch through a variety of new weapons systems. Huge amphibious landings like in World War Two or massive deployments on land - like in Iraq - will probably be things of the past.
-- BBC
.
==============
.
Are amphibious landings and deployments on land "things of the past"? What the BBC reporter and many others do not seem to grasp is the Marine Corps does not tell the Nation what sort of missions it is willing to do. The Marine Corps is a crisis response force, tasked with being most ready when the Nation is least ready. The Marine Corps will not be able to say, when the next crisis arrives, "we don't do that kind of thing anymore; we are too busy sitting and sensing on small Pacific islands; we are New Island Fighters."
.
If the Marine Corps is not prepared for the next crisis, the Nation will not care. The Nation will simply point in the direction of the crisis and say, go, fight, and win. The "New Island Fighters" will find, to their shock, that the Nation depends on the Marine Corps not for defense on islands in the Pacific, not as a sit and sense force, and not as a rocket and missile force. The Nation requires the Marine Corps to be a global, combined arms, maneuver force ready to arrive at the scene of any worldwide crisis to deter, assist, and fight.
.
Does the Marine want to be genuinely “critical to fighting China?" Here are four items that clearly will NOT help Marines to fight a massive, aggressive, determined military force like China.
.
-- The Marine Corps cannot fight China on the cheap or defeat them with a few technology tricks.
-- The Marine Corps cannot fight China with a defensive force of Marines; it will take the largest combined arms maneuver force that Marines can muster.
-- The Marine Corps cannot fight China with a handful of rockets and missiles.
-- The Marine Corps cannot fight China with polite phrases and vague evasions.
.
Compass Points thanks the Wall St Journal reporter for spending time with Marines and for writing her article, "America’s New Island Fighters Are Preparing for Conflict—a Stone’s Throw From Taiwan." But no one should be fooled by fantasy island. If the Marine Corps ever does find any Pacific nation willing to let the Marines set up rocket bases, the Marines would be wise not to get too comfortable sitting and sensing on defense. They will find they are only sitting on a fantasy island. The next crisis is coming, and Marines will be pulled off the island and sent to the crisis, ready or not.
.
- - - - -
.
Wall St. Journal - 05/26/2024
America’s New Island Fighters Are Preparing for Conflict—a Stone’s Throw From Taiwan
The Wall Street Journal flew out with U.S. Marines to remote locations from where they might one day fight China
U.S. Marines took part in a joint military exercise in the northern Philippines earlier this month. AARON FAVILA/ASSOCIATED PRESS
Story by Niharika Mandhana
.
- - - - -
.
BBC - 01/31/2023
How US Marines are being reshaped for China threat
By Jonathan Marcus
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64294915
I am not surprised that a clueless reporter might be impressed. I am stunned that a Marine Colonel would spew the ignorant trash that passes for military expertise.
I have visited many of these islands and coasts. These are not the deserted islands of 100 years ago. There is no sneaking ashore and no movement without detection. The populations have a cell phone density of any place in the United States. That alone insures that your every location and movement is reported in real time.
Unbeknownst to the reporter, her article pulled the scab from the Marine Corps’ self-inflicted Force Design 2030 wound. In a sign of increasing irrelevance, “America’s New Island Fighters” deployed aboard U.S. Army helicopters, not Marine Corps V-22s or CH-53s or even Navy ships. After four years, the highly touted Landing Ship Medium is still on the drawing board and, more likely, on life support as the U.S. Navy and the Congress debate its utility in a war with China. After debarking the borrowed aircraft, the Marines were left stranded on the tiny island without mobility, the full range of logistics, or missiles, which, even if deployed, would have been largely ineffective. Under the 38th and 39th Commandants, we have witnessed the Marine Corps transform itself to irrelevance. Colonel Mike Marletto predicted this sad fate almost two years ago in his article at the link: https://nationalinterest.org/feature/force-design-2030-transforming-irrelevance-205734