Compass Points - Pacific Friends
Time to pay the COFA.
Compass Points - Pacific Friends
Time to pay the COFA.
February 16, 2024
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Forward deployed Marines give the US a great advantage anywhere around the world. The vast distances in the Pacific make forward deployed Marines particularly important.
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When the Marine Corps detoured to the Force Design theory back in 2019, the theory was based on having Marine units already inside China's WEZ (Weapon Engagement Zone) before hostilities began. Unfortunately, as the years have gone by, Pacific nations near China have not been eager to risk China's retaliation for hosting Marine units. If only the Marine Corps could find an island only 200 miles from Taiwan. There is good news and bad news. The good news is the Marine Corps does have a welcoming island just 200 miles from Taiwan. The bad news is the island is Okinawa, Japan and the Marine Corps is busy reducing its presence on Okinawa.
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Under the terms of the 2012 Defense Policy Review Initiative Realignment Plan, the US has agreed to the relocation of approximately 9,000 Marines and their families from Okinawa, beginning in 2024. In anticipation of the relocation, the Marine Corps is building up its facilities on Guam. Guam is 1,700 miles from Taiwan. The key to Guam is that it sits nestled directly adjacent to the safety of the COFA nations, Palau, the Federated States of Micronesia, and the Republic of Marshall Islands.
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Author and Marine Grant Newsham has issued a warning in his recent article, "Pacific Security Depends on Funding the New COFA Agreements with 3 Pacific Island Nations."
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American control of the Central Pacific depends on three treaties with three nations: Palau, the Federated States of Micronesia, and the Republic of Marshall Islands. They are known as Compacts of Free Association (COFA). These nations and their huge maritime territory comprise most of an "east-west corridor" from Hawaii to the western edge of the Pacific. That corridor is essential for American control and military operations in the region.
-- Grant Newsham
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What happens if the US loses the COFA corridor? Grant Newsham warns of dangers to US security.
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Do you think America's tail-between-its-legs departure from Afghanistan was bad? Something even worse is coming in the Pacific, albeit more quietly. US defenses in the Asia Pacific center on a defense line running from Japan to the Philippines to Taiwan and on to Borneo. The so-called "first island chain." Try defending against China along the first island chain without a secure "rear area" in the Central Pacific. And imagine it's the Chinese in the rear.
. . . Lose the Central Pacific and we'll be defending from Hawaii and Southern California. Meanwhile, every country that was counting on us, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, Australia, and others, will start to hedge their bets.
-- Grant Newsham
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The key is that by maintaining the agreement with the COFA nations, the entire corridor continues to be a military exclusion zone and China is kept out of the area. All that is needed to maintain the COFA corridor is for the US to pay the COFA nations the funding that has been promised. The US has agreed to pay a total of $120mil per year, $40mil for each of the three, for the next 20 years. China has told the three nations they do not have to wait for their money, that China will pay them today. So far, the COFA nations have rejected the Chinese offer and are waiting on the US. Who is to blame for not paying the bill that is due? Politicians in Washington all point fingers at each other.
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Compass Points salutes Grant Newsham for his timely warning about the need for the US to provide the funding the COFA nations are due. The US cannot afford to be pushed out of any portion of the Pacific.
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All US military services have important roles to play in deterring China and keeping the Pacific safe. Forward deployed Marines give the US a great advantage anywhere around the world. The vast distances in the Pacific make forward deployed Marines particularly important. It is time for the COFA bill to be paid. The US needs the COFA nations, needs Okinawa, and needs the updated, enhanced, rebuilt, and rebalanced Marine MAGTF on constant patrol throughout the Pacific.
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Japan Forward (japan-forward.com) 02/12/2024
Pacific Security Depends on Funding the New COFA Agreements with 3 Pacific Island Nations
By Grant Newsham
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Grant Newsham Interview
(Discussion of COFA nations begins at about 2:20)
www.youtube.com/watch?v=PeteoZ9Zkf8
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IITSEC - 11/29/2023
Marine Corps Spotlights Pacific Pivot
Grant Newsham is the go to expert on Pacific affairs. As a retired Marine officer, he understands the complexity of amphibious warfare and its utility in the Pacific theatre.
Grant Newsham is right on target. Meanwhile, the Corps divests and Congress sleeps.