Compass Points - Pick up the Pace
Shift into high gear.
Compass Points - Pick up the Pace
Shift into high gear.
November 1, 2024
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If China really is the pacing threat for the US military, it is time for the US military to get serious and get moving. China will give the US military no time to catch up.
In the South China Sea east of Vietnam, China has constructed an elaborate $50 billion military fortress on Hainan island. How much Chinese military power is on the island? US Navy Admiral Samuel John Paparo Jr. commander of United States Indo-Pacific Command says the Chinese forces on Hainan include, "six nuclear-powered ballistic-missile submarines, a destroyer flotilla, two fighter regiments, a ballistic-missile brigade, two attack submarine squadrons, two airfields, two naval bases, a coastal defense brigade and a combined arms brigade."
The Washington Post reports:
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Over the past decade, China has conducted a massive buildup of military installations across the South China Sea, from the Paracel to the Spratly Islands, including turning uninhabited atolls into islands bristling with military assets. An international tribunal in 2016 found the buildup illegal. LTSG pegged the value of these Chinese bases in 2022 at $15 billion, surpassing the value of all U.S. military infrastructure on Guam.
“There’s a reason why China can be so aggressive in the Philippines,” Shugart said. “In any level of conflict China has with the Philippines and with the United States, we would really have to ramp it up in a very significant way.”
Paparo, the top commander of U.S. forces in the Indo- Pacific region, noted China’s respectable arsenal. “There’s no denying the quantity of capability that [China] has put on Hainan island,” Paparo said, running through a list that includes six nuclear-powered ballistic-missile submarines, a destroyer flotilla, two fighter regiments, a ballistic-missile brigade, two attack submarine squadrons, two airfields, two naval bases, a coastal defense brigade and a combined arms brigade.
-- Washington Post
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Is the US matching China's buildup? Hardly. In years past, the nearest substantial US combined arms infantry force in the Pacific has been the US Marine Expeditionary Force headquartered on Okinawa not far from Taiwan. But instead of building up III MEF, the Marine Corps has restructured and reduced III MEF combined arms forces. While the Marine leadership still calls III MEF a "fight now" MEF, the Marine force has little combined arms infantry to fight with.
The Washington Times is reporting that even the US build up on Guam is being limited due to "environmental concerns."
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Plans to rapidly deploy an integrated missile and air defense system on Guam now call for placing interceptors and sensors at just 16 sites on the strategic Pacific island instead of the initially planned 35 locations, the Pentagon’s Missile Defense Agency said.
The MDA and military services disclosed the reduced number of defense sites in a draft environmental impact statement published Oct. 25 for the program called the “Enhanced Integrated Air and Missile Defense” (EIAMD) system.
The new defenses are a major priority for the Indo-Pacific Command, which has said the system is needed to defend Guam from growing threats posed by Chinese missiles. A Defense Intelligence Agency report made public in mid-October said China is expanding its force of DF-26 intermediate-range missiles, which Beijing has dubbed a “Guam killer” for their 2,500-mile range.
-- Washington Times
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In a related story, reporter Jake Epstein estimates, "The US Navy has fired off nearly $2 billion worth of munitions since it began intense combat operations in the Middle East a little over a year ago."
If China really is the pacing threat for the US military, it is time to for the US military to get serious and get moving. China will give the US military no time to catch up. China has never paused for environmental or for any other reason the ongoing construction of its Hainan fortress. China has not depleted its crucial munition supplies. China's munition supplies are full and ready for use. China's factories are busy constructing even more munitions as well as more ships and aircraft.
China is not the only threat facing the US today, but it is the pacing threat. It is time for the US military to pick up the pace.
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Washington Post - 10/31/2024
China Built A $50 Billion Military Stronghold In The South China Sea
By Ellen Nakashima and Laris Karklis
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Washington Times - 10/31/2024
Pentagon Slashes Planned Missile Defense Sites On Guam In Part Over Environmental Concerns
By Bill Gertz
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2024/oct/31/pentagon-slashes-planned-missile-defense-sites-gua/
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Business Insider - 10/31/2024
The U.S. Navy Fired Nearly $2 Billion In Weapons Over A Year Of Fighting In The Middle East
By Jake Epstein
https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-weapons-expenditure-cost-middle-east-conflicts-2024-10
Headline: Marine field commander’s first visit to Japanese island sends message, experts say
https://www.stripes.com/branches/marine_corps/2024-10-30/ishigaki-island-japan-marine-generals-15674251.html
Well about time. The Japanese owns Ishigaki Island and it controls the SLOC backdoor to Taiwan. BTW Ishigaki is approximately 216 miles directly West of Taiwan and part of the Japanese Yaeyama Island Chain. Another island in the Yaeyama Chain is Yonaguni, smaller but it splits the distance between Ishigaki and Taiwan. Yonaguni also has a 2000 meter operational airport. When I did an AI search on the length of the Yonaguni Airport, the returned AI final comment about the 2000 meters was: “Quite a stretch for such a remote island, right?”
Why these islands are strategically important is Taiwan’s war plans (if they do not go well) call for a military retreat to the mountains in the east side of their island to wait for military help/relief. The CCP cannot exceed in a Taiwan invasion unless they isolate their objective. If the CCP makes a surprise attack on Taiwan they should and probably will seize the islands that will surround and isolate Taiwan. There is no military presence on these islands and they are basically tourist spots. Their only protection is Japan’s international boundaries.
Britain had a similar problem at the beginning of WW2. Iceland was strategically important because they needed to protect the Atlantic shipping lanes by securing the Britain, Iceland and Greenland Gap. Iceland was undefended with no military (and still is). Churchill would seize Iceland with one untrained Royal Marine Battalion. He then also asked FDR for help, who then ordered the 6th Marines to Iceland to participate with the occupation.
If you look at the current CCP military exercises around Taiwan, it is plain as day light that their intent is to isolate Taiwan not only politically but also militarily. If you look at the live fire missile target areas used in these exercises, there is one between Taiwan and just a couple clicks of windage from the Yonaguni Islands. https://taiwancss.org/2022/09/30/august-22-pla-military-exercises-implications-for-taiwans-security/ Like I said: Plain as day light.
One of my issues with the MLR is its defensive nature and its perspective need to be in place before the shooting starts. If the MLR is such a good idea let’s sell it to Japan. Let them employ it on the Yaeyama Islands. The US Marine Corps can then save its combat power to seize these islands, especially if the CCP beats us to their occupation.
It is now October 2024, and we seem to be behind the CCP in our strategic war planning in the Pacific. Yep, time to pick up the pace. S/F
As the CHICOMs invest and expand their military power projection and capabilities, the Corps continues to "divest" its proven capabilities and has rendered its MAGTF capabilities to be irrelevant and impotent to deter or engage the CHICOMs, or any other threat in the other 98% of the globe... VISION2035 must be implemented immediately to restore our Corps' lethality and strengths!