Compass Points - Real Deterrence
Israel under attack
Compass Points - Real Deterrence
Israel under attack
October 2, 2024
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What can the Marine Corps learn from Israel?
There are many opinions about the State of Israel; some people are strong supporters of Israel, while others have an almost pathological hatred of Israel. Since the establishment of the modern state of Israel, after the horrors of the holocaust in World War II, Israel has been under recurring attack and has had to continually fight for its survival. In the most recent attack on Israel, Iran fired 181 ballistic missiles at Israel including hypersonic ballistic missiles. An editorial in the Wall Street Journal discusses the attack.
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Iran unleashed its second direct military assault against Israel on Tuesday, this time with 181 ballistic missiles. All Israeli civilians were ordered into bomb shelters, and most missiles were intercepted. But this is an act of war against a sovereign state and American ally, and it warrants a response targeting Iran’s military and nuclear assets.
This is Iran’s second missile barrage since April, and no country can let this become a new normal. Israel reported a few civilians injured and one Palestinian may have been killed near Jericho in the attack. A terrorist shooting, possibly coordinated, killed six Israelis. The work by the U.S. and Israel to shoot down most of the missiles was spectacular, but it shouldn’t have to be, and next time it may not be.
. . . Israel’s restraint has now yielded this escalation, and it is under no obligation to restrain its retaliation this time.
-- WSJ Editorial
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The WSJ Editorial Board leaves no doubt that to deter future attacks from Iran, Israel must strike back and strike back hard. Israel is currently striking back on three fronts from attacks by Hamas, Houthi, and Hezbollah. Now Israel is no doubt preparing to strike back against Iran.
Israel is always in a precarious situation. It always needs to do all it can to deter future attacks. What steps could Israel take to deter future attacks? Israel could send a diplomatic cable to Iran, but that would not deter. Israel could call for peace, call for a cease fire, call for restraint, but that would not deter. It could create power point slides, but power point slides do not deter. Israel could announce spending cuts for its military to show its peaceful intent, but that would not deter.
For a deterrence to deter, it must be a robust, muscular deterrence. Genuine deterrence has two parts:
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1. Demonstrating a clear ability to reach out and harm an enemy.
2. Demonstrating a clear willingness to reach out and harm an enemy.
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Israel uses this two step muscular, deterrence approach. For example, for nearly a year, Israel has been the target of regular missile and drone attacks from Houthis based in Yemen. Yemen is roughly 3,700 miles from Tel Aviv. In just the last few days, Israel struck back.
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Sept 29 (Reuters) - Israel said it bombed Houthi targets in Yemen on Sunday in response to missile fire by the Iran-aligned militants at Israel over the past two days, marking another front in fighting in the Middle East.
The Israeli strikes killed at least four people and wounded 29, the Houthi-run Health Ministry said in a statement, and residents said the bombing had caused power outages in most parts of the port city of Hodeidah.
Israel's military said in a statement that dozens of aircraft, including fighter jets, had attacked power plants and a sea port in Hodeidah and the port of Ras Issa.
It was the second such Israeli attack on Yemen in just over two months. In July, Israeli warplanes struck Houthi military targets near Hodeidah after a Yemeni drone hit Tel Aviv and killed one man.
"Over the past year, the Houthis have been operating under the direction and funding of Iran, and in cooperation with Iraqi militias in order to attack the State of Israel, undermine regional stability, and disrupt global freedom of navigation," the military statement said.
-- Reuters
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The Israeli mission to fly jets and refuelers thousands of miles to strike targets in Yemen was not only intended to deter future attacks from the Houthis, but also to serve as a warning to Iran. Iran is less than 1,000 miles from Tel Aviv. By striking targets in Yemen, Israel sent a clear warning to Iran that it had the ability and the willingness to reach out and deliver harm not just to the Houthis but to Iran itself.
What can the Marine Corps learn from Israel? Like Israel, but on a much larger scale, the US is surrounded by enemies who wish to destroy the United States. The Marine Corps is tasked with helping to deter the enemies of the US and, should deterrence fail, to fight the enemies of the US. Is the Marine Corps doing all it can to deter the enemies of the United States? For decades the Marine Corps has used the Marine Air Ground Task Force (MAGTF) to deter the enemies of the US. Small MAGTFs on Navy amphibious ships patrolled the globe ready to arrive off shore of any troubled coast. The initial small MAGTF could be rapidly reinforced by larger and larger MAGTFs.
Over the last five years, the Marine Corps has turned its focus away from the flexible, capable, global MAGFT and instead put its focus on small missile units on islands in the Pacific. After the recent years and all the focus on these small missile units, are the Marine missile units deterring the enemies of the US?
For a deterrence to deter, it must be a robust, muscular deterrence. Genuine deterrence has two parts:
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1. Demonstrating a clear ability to reach out and harm an enemy.
2. Demonstrating a clear willingness to reach out and harm an enemy.
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The military forces of Israel are providing a continuous, robust, muscular deterrence for their country. Sometimes, even the strongest deterrence does not deter, but stronger deterrence always deters better than weak deterrence. The US Marine Corps' small island missiles are not demonstrating any clear ability to reach out and harm anyone. Not one country, not one military force anywhere in the Pacific is being deterred by the Marine Corps' mostly imaginary missile units. Why does the Marine Corps continue to lavish time, attention, and resources on small missiles that do not deter?
Compass Points condemns Iran's ballistic missile attack on Israel and celebrates the amazing success of the Israeli missile defense. Israel today is in a fight for its survival and and every Israeli military unit is doing all they can to help keep their nation safe and secure. In a similar way, the United States is fighting for its survival against global enemy forces. It is time for the Marine Corps to rethink the deterrence it could be and should be providing for the US.
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Wall Street Journal - 10/02/2024
Iran Opens The Door To Retaliation
Its nuclear and military assets are fair game after another attack on Israel.
By WSJ Editorial Board
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Reuters - 09/29/2024
Israel strikes Houthi targets in Yemen, killing at least four people
By Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-launches-strikes-yemeni-houthi-targets-2024-09-29/
I can’t help but compare Hezbollah’s Missile Units to those envisioned by FD. What good have the Hezbollah or for that matter, the Houthis and Iran’s missile I’m stopping the IDF from doing what it wants? The answer is a big fat nothing!
On the flip side; the IDF multi layered armed services (MAGTF style) have brought much destruction to their enemies and will continue to do so.
Marine Crops planners need to learn, in real time, that SIF will not work; not now and damn sure not in the future!
What can a FD Marine Corps contribute to a major conventional land battle? I think I would be correct in saying: two weak infantry divisions, maybe seven gun artillery batteries, some HIMARS rockets, and logistics units. Obviously the strong point would be Marine air. It could not provide the robust capabilities which were evident in the Gulf War or the War in Iraq. Would the Army then be correct in saying that if the Marine Corps cannot contribute to a major land conflict, why do we have them? They could also point out that the Marine budget would be better spent on additional Army forces. Plus they have their Multi-Domain Task Force, so the don't need the Marine Littoral Regiments or SIF. CMC Smith needs to take his blinders off and see reality.