Compass Points - Simple Solution
Need an easy way to win.
April 29, 2024
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What is needed is a quick, easy, and simple solution.
The Institute for the Study of War reports on the fighting in Ukraine:
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Recent Russian gains northwest of Avdiivka have prompted Ukrainian forces to withdraw from other limited tactical positions along the frontline west of Avdiivka, although these withdrawals have yet to facilitate rapid Russian tactical gains. Russian forces remain unlikely to achieve a deeper operationally significant penetration in the area in the near term. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi reported on April 28 that Ukrainian forces withdrew from Berdychi (northwest of Avdiivka) and Semenivka (west of Avdiivka) to positions further west in order to preserve Ukrainian personnel.[1]
Syrskyi acknowledged that Russian forces are making tactical advances northwest of Avdiivka, and Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces have deployed up to four brigades to their tactical penetration in the Ocheretyne (northwest of Avdiivka) area.[2] Russian forces have committed roughly a reinforced division’s worth of combat power (comprised mainly of four Central Military District [CMD] brigades) to the frontline northwest of Avdiivka to stabilize a small salient in the area and pursue a wider penetration of the Ukrainian defense along the frontline west of Avdiivka.[3]
Russian forces have not made relatively rapid tactical gains west of Ocheretyne, Solovyove (northwest of Avdiivka), Berdychi, and Semenivka following Ukrainian withdrawals from limited tactical positions in the area, however, suggesting that Ukrainian forces maintain positions and capabilities in the area that are slowing further westward Russian advances for the moment. Russian forces will likely continue to make tactical gains in the Avdiivka direction in the coming weeks, and Ukrainian commanders may decide to conduct additional withdrawals if Russian forces threaten other Ukrainian tactical positions in the area.[4]
The next line of defensible settlements in the area is some distance from the Ukrainian defensive line that Russian forces have been attacking since the seizure of Avdiivka in mid-February 2024, although Ukrainian forces may be able to use defensible windbreaks in fields immediately west of the current frontline to slow future Russian attacks.[5] The complete Ukrainian withdrawal to reportedly fortified positions further west of Avdiivka would likely allow Russian forces to make relatively rapid advances through these fields, although the advances would likely be rapid only if Ukrainian forces do not try to hold positions in the fields.
-- ISW
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At the same time of the very difficult fighting in Ukraine, Israel is embroiled in a very difficult campaign in Gaza. What is needed in Ukraine, in Gaza, and in conflicts and crises around the globe is a quick, easy, and simple solution.
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What is the quick, easy, simple solution. Cyber? Electronic warfare? Drones and missiles? Artificial Intelligence?
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Cyber cannot solve Ukraine or Gaza. Electronic warfare cannot solve Ukraine or Gaza. Neither can drones and missiles. And AI is no solution either. All these tools are powerful and necessary tools in warfare today, but none of them, either alone or together, is a quick, easy, and simple solution.
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There is no quick, easy, simple solution.
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The US faces ongoing threats, conflicts, and crises around the globe today. Tomorrow will bring even more.
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The very fact that threats, conflicts, and crises will always be erupting somewhere around the world is what has made amphibious ships, loaded with combined arms Marines, such a necessary part of US global crisis response. Marines are not a quick, easy, simple solution, but Marines are a powerful tool for US policy makers. A Marine Expeditionary Unit of combined arms Marines can arrive at the scene of a crisis quickly and can wait offshore providing deterrence. If deterrence fails, Marines can go in and assist, rescue, evacuate, reinforce, advise, and fight.
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Where around the globe will the next dangerous and difficult crisis erupt? No-one knows. What is known is the next crisis will be complex and messy. It will not have a simple solution. To meet the next challenge, the US will need a powerful, flexible crisis response force already in the area. The US will need Marines. To accomplish the mission, no matter how difficult, Marines will need not only the latest in cyber and technology, but the oldest in courage and fidelity.
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ISW Press
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 28, 2024
By Riley Bailey, Angelica Evans, Nicole Wolkov, Grace Mappes, and Frederick W. Kagan
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-28-2024
Simple
Someone once said: “there is always a well-known and simple solution to every problem; neat, plausible and wrong!”
A Ukraine solution ain”t going to be simple. No amount of artillery shells is going to end the war. A World War 1 French general, when asked what would end the war, stated “Shells, Shells, and more Shells!”, and that answer didn’t work. What is the difference in trench warfare in WW1 France and the trenches in Ukraine?
The simplistic move of a JLOTS pier for Gaza is not going to help without a distribution system inside Gaza (and not controlled by Hamas). Hamas is already dropping mortar rounds on the Gaza reception area. Well someone at the US State Department please take a look at the 1992 Restore Hope Operation in Somalia.
I have said this before; US senior military leadership is responsible to explain to our political leaders that a rigorous war, makes for a short war, and a short war is a merciful war. If they could get that idea across to our politician’s maybe, just maybe, the US would stop losing forever wars strategically with our warriors bleeding to win them tactically. Especially, when strategy trumps tactics every time. Committing our warriors to a conflict must be for decisive results. Our warriors don’t sacrifice their lives, they have to be taken by an enemy. For that reason alone military leaders need to be held accountable.
Semper Fi
Correction second sentence should have read “is failing because economic ..and.