Compass Points - Trust But Verify
Beware! Innovation Can Be Either Useful or Harmful
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DARPA, DOD's, Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, was established in 1958 by President Dwight Eisenhower in response to the Soviet Union’s surprise launch of Sputnik, the world’s first satellite. Designed to be “the initiator and not the victim of strategic technological surprises,” the agency has created such innovations as the internet, stealth technology, and autonomous vehicles.
DARPA's budget is more than $4.1 billion and they have done tremendous good, but DARPA does not bat 100%. Far from it. Like a big league hitter, by one estimate, more than 70% of DARPA's original investigations are dead ends or failures. DARPA spends as much time rejecting innovations that do not work, as they do developing worthwhile innovations.
Not just at DARPA, but in every organization, strangers arrive everyday proposing new ideas and new innovations. While it is good to hear of new ideas and new innovations, it is important to remember that not every new thing is beneficial. Some new ideas and innovations -- despite the best intentions -- can be destructive. New ideas and innovations must never be swallowed whole. They need to be vetted, examined, discussed, and critiqued. As DARPA has shown, harmful ideas and innovations must be rejected, so worthwhile innovations have room to grow.
The article “Marine Generals: ‘Trust but Verify’ Force Design 2030” by BGen Jerry McAbee and BGen Mike Hayes is particularly relevant to the ongoing innovations across the military services, especially within the Marine Corps. Citing specific examples, the authors expose dangerous flaws in the Marine Corps’ approach to modernization; flaws that pose a risk to national security. The authors argue that the Marine Corps urgently requires greater congressional oversight to make sure harmful innovations are rejected and better innovations can grow.
The authors warn,
. . . Both articles raise concerns about military innovation and transformation that should alarm the new Congress. Congressional oversight is needed, to include hearings where witnesses for and against ongoing transformations are asked hard, thoughtful questions about whether the services, especially the Marine Corps, are transforming in a manner that supports current and future U.S. national security objectives. The Congress cannot assume every prospective military innovation and transformation is necessarily good for the national defense simply because it offers seductive budgetary solutions and illusions of future “silver bullet” technologies. To paraphrase former President Ronald Reagan, our elected representatives can trust but they must verify.
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Compass Points salutes Generals McAbee and Hayes for their insightful article that makes clear the importance of strong Congressional oversight.
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The National Interest (nationalinterest.org) 03/26/2023
Marine Generals: ‘Trust But Verify’ Force Design 2030
Congress cannot assume every prospective military innovation and transformation is necessarily good for the national defense simply because it offers seductive budgetary solutions and illusions of future “silver bullet” technologies.
by Jerry McAbee and Mike Hayes
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Brigadier General Jerry McAbee (USMC, Ret) is a career artillery officer who served thirty-six years on active duty.
Brigadier General Mike Hayes (USMC, Ret.) is a career artillery officer who served thirty-three years on active duty.
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"My central claim is that innovation is more likely to weaken a service's effectiveness when growing security commitments outstrip shrinking resources. This wide commitment-resource gap exerts pressures to innovate in ways that cannibalize traditional capabilities before beliefs about the effectiveness of new ones are justified. When wartime comes, not only has the service lost proficiency in those older capabilities, but the new capability under delivers, " - Dangerous Changes: When Military Innovation Harms Combat Effectiveness by Kendrick Kuo
Mr. Kuo succinctly captures the problem with the FD2030 brand's version of innovation and change management.
Thank you to BGen Hayes and BGen McAbee for putting this in our field of view.