Compass Points contributor, CFrog, provides a comment that is a fitting introduction to the upcoming series of three articles in the USNI Proceedings discussing unclassified war games related to FD 2030. See link below.
One of my main questions, and one I hope to see answered in the executive summaries of the war games due for release this month, is how the T/O & T/E for the war games were handled. So much experimentation on what a capability should look like (organization, LAW and other vessels, vehicles, logistics, etc) ex post facto of implementation naturally leads me and others to have doubts.
I’ve been in enough good and bad simulations and war games to know that “wargaming” itself is not enough; getting setup right is half the battle, or it affects the outcome. (Experimentation is valid in post implementation when it is refining capabilities and concepts…not continuing to determine what those should be) Right now, I see a plausibility gap between claims and reality. FD 2030 looks like some interesting ideas stitched together with a lot of “future development” fairy dust. — CFrog
USNI Proceedings (www.usni.org) November 2022
The ‘Agile’ Wargames that Can Test Force Design, Part 1
By Lieutenant Colonel Thomas Quinn, British Royal Marines; Major Adam Bunker, U.S. Air Force; and Major Tyler Quinn, U.S. Marine Corps
Editor’s note: This is the first of three articles discussing the utility of the unclassified wargame in the development of force design efforts.
. . . The efforts to develop, wargame, test, and refine Force Design 2030 are substantial, and the Marine Corps continues to communicate progress frequently and publicly. Still, many aspects necessarily remain classified, preventing much of the national security community from understanding the methods used to come to conclusions—conclusions that are often controversial. This can cause analysts to feel as though they can only see Force Design 2030 through a glass, darkly.
And yet, unclassified or publicly available information does provide an abundance of material through which independent assessments can be made. Anyone can look at a map, research military capabilities, calculate time-distance factors, and reach logical conclusions that are not beholden to the restrictions of classification. The more research and synthesis that is done to support these efforts, the more rigorous these conclusions become . . . .
https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2022/november/agile-wargames-can-test-force-design-part-1