What We Can Learn from a Red Team Victory
Military forces always seek new advantage over their opponents. This leads military forces to constantly devise and experiment with new theories, strategies, and concepts. Some new theories, strategies, and concepts have staying power. They prove themselves useful. They help military forces succeed in the real world. John Boyd's famous OODA Loop, for example, has proven itself to be extremely useful and powerful.
Unfortunately, most new theories, strategies, and concepts - once the shiny newness wears off - turn out to be only a distraction, a mistake, and sometimes, a disaster. The theory of fixed fortifications behind France's Maginot Line proved itself a disaster.
Years ago, long before FD 2030 had its hold on the Marine Corps, the Department of Defense was in the thrall of something called both, "The Revolution in Military Affairs," and "Military Transformation." To test the soundness of the concepts associated with Military Transformation, the DOD put together a massive $250 million war game and exercise called, Millennium Challenge - 02. This war game was not just a few officers in a conference room. It involved more than 13,000 civilians and military at sites around the world.
Instead of proving the revolutionary concepts, there was great consternation when the Red Team, led by Marine LtGen P.K. Van Riper, devised a way, early in the war game, to sink nearly the entire Blue Team fleet. With the Blue Fleet wiped out, the exercise was effectively over -- and so were the concepts of Military Transformation.
But it is hard to keep a bad concept down. So the fictitious Blue Fleet was refloated and the war game went on, staggering and stumbling to a scripted Blue victory.
Compass Points sat down with Lieutenant General Van Riper to discuss his experience with the famous war game and ask if there were any lessons for today.
Lieutenant General Van Riper said there were lessons for today, but not what people might think. Instead of highlighting the innovative methods he developed to lead the Red Team to unexpected victory, General Van Riper, instead, emphasized that the real issue was the flawed methods the former Joint Forces Command used to develop the operating concepts the $250 million exercise was designed to evaluate.
In short, General Van Riper said the real problem for the Blue Team was an unsound concept development process, which led to unsound concepts. The flawed concepts being tested in the exercise were mere assertions by a small group, with virtually no evidence and no signs of deep study. The small group claimed that a new method of planning called "effects-based operations" was superior to what was then the current joint and service standard built on mission-type orders.
General Van Riper noted that what he had observed in the runup to MC-02 was very similar to what he knew of the approach used to develop Force Design 2030. He stated his conclusion is that concept development must be done in the light of day, not by small teams hidden away and prevented from discussing their work by non-disclosure agreements.
Compass Points agrees. Military forces always seek new advantage over their opponents. Without a strong, robust, and transparent concept development process, however, what is developed and advertised as the latest and greatest new concept will turn out to be just another Maginot Line.
-- Compass Points
There are many versions of what happened at Millennium Challenge 02. See Malcolm Gladwell's book, Blink (Chapter 4), for one perspective. For another perspective, see the link below from the article by Micah Zinko at War on the Rocks, "Millennium Challenge: The Real Story of A Corrupted Military Exercise and Its Legacy."