Time and apathy are our biggest enemies. Let’s be clear: war could erupt at any time and we are not prepared.
1. We do not have the infrastructure to build enough warships. We do not have the workers with the skills to build those ships. For now focus on building carriers and submarines and slowly transition to all ship’s types.
2. We have no plan or idea of how to recreate a commercial fleet. We can’t build it, can’t maintain it, can’t man it or operate it.
3. If the Navy were suddenly handed 600 ships it could not man them. It could not recruit and train the crews fast enough. It could not maintain those 600 ships.
How we got here is immaterial. We are there.
Solutions require some cold blooded decisions:
1. Buy ships from foreign sources while we build up shipyards, facilities and hire and train skilled work forces to build our own.
2. Ditto for a U.S. manned and flagged commercial fleet.
3. Expand US Navy recruiting to select, highly qualified individuals from foreign countries. I have estimated that up to 10% of the Navy’s end strength could be recruited with US citizenship offered after six years of service.
4. Manpower for the shipyards could also be manned by recruited immigrants. Shipyard production and maintenance must be long term contracts to prevent the feast or famine yo-yo effect.
5. Current Navy Operating bases cannot home port 600 ships. Open more ports and homeport a higher percentage overseas.
This needs to be a three phased plan stretching over the next 20 years.
Let me add that this is the tip of the iceberg. We do have the largest defense budget in the world but that does not translate to trained, equipped, deployable and ready operational units. Why?
Your comment 1 is what I have been yelling about for the last 5 years sitting in the ship repair business.
Your comment 2 is also valid...not just for commercial ships, but for Navy ships as well. All fine and well to want a 600 ship Navy...you have to be able to maintain it. And the LCS mentality of "I am an operator, not a maintainer" has infected the entire fleet. Absolutely ludicrous the work that is farmed out to contractors. Fully 30% of the work could be performed by the sailors....but there is no drive to make them do it. There are no more SIMAs or shore based Navy repair shops where Sailors learn advanced maintenance while on shore duty to take back to the ships when they rotate back to sea.
As a side note. I was stationed as CCO on a big deck amphib for almost 3 years. When I retired I started in the ship repair business. One of the first work items I had was to replace the dip tank in the motor rewind shop. Huh? The ship has one of those? Sure enough. LHDs have the capability of rewinding electric motors, dipping them and baking them. None of the ships crew knew how to do it, but the capability is there.
Solution 4: Yep, I am sure there are immigrants that would love to do the jobs that Americans do not want ot do. Lets face it, ship maintenance is a hot dirty job. But rules are rules. Only American citizens are allowed in the shipyards.
Doug all points are great points. Regarding our defense budget being the largest in the world. I think people forget, our military and our workers are paid higher than foreign workers and militaries. That could be an answer.
Superb outline. As to recruiting, many talented and able bodies could be found among those trying to enter the U. S. at the southern border. Hard working and capable people has been my recent experience with home improvement work completed.
The USNavy has over 220 admirals, or about one for every two ships, (Naval Vessel Report= 490 ships-active and reserve fleet)if the computer has the numbers right. About a third of those ships are in rehab of some manner. We are almost to the point of one flag rank per ship. Joke to follow: We need more “rowers” and fewer “steerers” it seems. Perhaps one of the admirals should be the one to keep his/her foot on the accelerator to ensure replacement/modification is keeping pace with world events, knowing that the lag time between concept and sea trails is a looong time! Our current situation has caught someone asleep at the switch or perhaps we weren’t loud enough at the table!
Compass Points is correct. The nation needs more amphibious ships. But it also needs the operational readiness of ships to dramatically improve beyond the current 30%-40%. The number of ships is not the right metric. The number of operationally ready ships is the right metric. And the Marines need a more robust and resilient inventory of combined arms to put aboard these ships. Amphibious ships loaded with anti-ship missiles; amphibious vehicles that can only transit calm surf conditions; infantry without armor, artillery, breaching, and bridging support; and the likelihood of only limited and degraded MPS support are virtually useless in the close and rear battles. Here again, the number of ships is not the right metric. The number of ships that can be loaded with the capabilities needed to fight and win across the range of military operations is the right metric.
Part of our problem here is that the US has no convertible maritime industry. Commercial blue-water ships, steel, machinery, instruments, computers, China makes all these in vast quantities and US production is emaciated by comparison. China produces over 50 percent of the world's maritime ships and the US practically none. So of steel. It is rapidly becoming true of cars, the premier convertible industry. Civilian industry is a kind of support system, and the matrix from which military industry and the military itself is drawn. PLAN can multiply the size of its ship inventory overnight with a few phone calls by converting civilian blue-water ship production. The US cannot answer because it has almost no civilian ship production to convert. This fact itself is destabilizing because it means China by escalating any naval conflict will surely win.
If the US is serious about protecting its interests in the Pacific, including the basic security and independence of its own Pacific coasts, it must reindustrialize and do so expeditiously. Start by building as much blue-water shipping as China does, and operating large-scale blue-water cargo lines, US owned and based, so that there is a large quickly convertible corps of merchant marines, not to mention the shipping itself available for support. This exercise in itself would nourish a large scale return of the US steel industry, meaning though that all the steel and other components would have to be US sourced.
Another attack in the Red Sea region, not unexpected but what was the Greek tanker’s distention? Well it turns out that the Greek tanker “Sounion” was traveling from the port of Basra, Iraq to Athens, Greece. Naturally, for some time now, all commercial sea traffic is avoiding the risk in and around the Red Sea. There is an exception and interestingly oil tankers headed for China are not attacked. My question now is has Iran and the Houthi's effectively establish a Red Sea blockade in their favor.
AI tells me that Yemen’s primary export is crude petroleum to China (CCP) to the tune of approximately $533 million in crude oil in 2022. In addition, China exports a variety of goods to Yemen and in 2022 those exports were valued at about $2.8 billion making the trade balance in favor of the CCP.
Seems to me that the US State Department and Military should be breaking out the rule books on Blockades that are regulated by international law and custom and require advance warning to neutral states and impartial application. A Blockade will require planning and diplomatic discussions but will be a real attention getting move for the Houthis, Iran and the CCP.
Simply put, we need more fully manned hulls in the water. I don't know much about naval construction, but first of all we should extend the decommissioning age of all ships by at least 5 years (10 would be better). The LCS should be rearmed with the longest range missiles they can carry. Use the LCS like the PT boats of WWII. We need to develop the industrial base ASAP. Finally, we need a coherent plan on the building of new ships. We can no longer waste money on programs which do not work. The Zumwalt DDs are a case in point. China sees we are stretched by our commitments in the Middle East, and are taking advantage of that in the South China Sea area. On a side note, in this months Proceedings is an article about the new Expeditionary Hospital ship. The question is: in light of today's missile environment, should the hospital ship have defensive armament? Hell, yes!
Time and apathy are our biggest enemies. Let’s be clear: war could erupt at any time and we are not prepared.
1. We do not have the infrastructure to build enough warships. We do not have the workers with the skills to build those ships. For now focus on building carriers and submarines and slowly transition to all ship’s types.
2. We have no plan or idea of how to recreate a commercial fleet. We can’t build it, can’t maintain it, can’t man it or operate it.
3. If the Navy were suddenly handed 600 ships it could not man them. It could not recruit and train the crews fast enough. It could not maintain those 600 ships.
How we got here is immaterial. We are there.
Solutions require some cold blooded decisions:
1. Buy ships from foreign sources while we build up shipyards, facilities and hire and train skilled work forces to build our own.
2. Ditto for a U.S. manned and flagged commercial fleet.
3. Expand US Navy recruiting to select, highly qualified individuals from foreign countries. I have estimated that up to 10% of the Navy’s end strength could be recruited with US citizenship offered after six years of service.
4. Manpower for the shipyards could also be manned by recruited immigrants. Shipyard production and maintenance must be long term contracts to prevent the feast or famine yo-yo effect.
5. Current Navy Operating bases cannot home port 600 ships. Open more ports and homeport a higher percentage overseas.
This needs to be a three phased plan stretching over the next 20 years.
Let me add that this is the tip of the iceberg. We do have the largest defense budget in the world but that does not translate to trained, equipped, deployable and ready operational units. Why?
Your comment 1 is what I have been yelling about for the last 5 years sitting in the ship repair business.
Your comment 2 is also valid...not just for commercial ships, but for Navy ships as well. All fine and well to want a 600 ship Navy...you have to be able to maintain it. And the LCS mentality of "I am an operator, not a maintainer" has infected the entire fleet. Absolutely ludicrous the work that is farmed out to contractors. Fully 30% of the work could be performed by the sailors....but there is no drive to make them do it. There are no more SIMAs or shore based Navy repair shops where Sailors learn advanced maintenance while on shore duty to take back to the ships when they rotate back to sea.
As a side note. I was stationed as CCO on a big deck amphib for almost 3 years. When I retired I started in the ship repair business. One of the first work items I had was to replace the dip tank in the motor rewind shop. Huh? The ship has one of those? Sure enough. LHDs have the capability of rewinding electric motors, dipping them and baking them. None of the ships crew knew how to do it, but the capability is there.
Solution 4: Yep, I am sure there are immigrants that would love to do the jobs that Americans do not want ot do. Lets face it, ship maintenance is a hot dirty job. But rules are rules. Only American citizens are allowed in the shipyards.
Doug all points are great points. Regarding our defense budget being the largest in the world. I think people forget, our military and our workers are paid higher than foreign workers and militaries. That could be an answer.
Superb outline. As to recruiting, many talented and able bodies could be found among those trying to enter the U. S. at the southern border. Hard working and capable people has been my recent experience with home improvement work completed.
The USNavy has over 220 admirals, or about one for every two ships, (Naval Vessel Report= 490 ships-active and reserve fleet)if the computer has the numbers right. About a third of those ships are in rehab of some manner. We are almost to the point of one flag rank per ship. Joke to follow: We need more “rowers” and fewer “steerers” it seems. Perhaps one of the admirals should be the one to keep his/her foot on the accelerator to ensure replacement/modification is keeping pace with world events, knowing that the lag time between concept and sea trails is a looong time! Our current situation has caught someone asleep at the switch or perhaps we weren’t loud enough at the table!
Compass Points is correct. The nation needs more amphibious ships. But it also needs the operational readiness of ships to dramatically improve beyond the current 30%-40%. The number of ships is not the right metric. The number of operationally ready ships is the right metric. And the Marines need a more robust and resilient inventory of combined arms to put aboard these ships. Amphibious ships loaded with anti-ship missiles; amphibious vehicles that can only transit calm surf conditions; infantry without armor, artillery, breaching, and bridging support; and the likelihood of only limited and degraded MPS support are virtually useless in the close and rear battles. Here again, the number of ships is not the right metric. The number of ships that can be loaded with the capabilities needed to fight and win across the range of military operations is the right metric.
Part of our problem here is that the US has no convertible maritime industry. Commercial blue-water ships, steel, machinery, instruments, computers, China makes all these in vast quantities and US production is emaciated by comparison. China produces over 50 percent of the world's maritime ships and the US practically none. So of steel. It is rapidly becoming true of cars, the premier convertible industry. Civilian industry is a kind of support system, and the matrix from which military industry and the military itself is drawn. PLAN can multiply the size of its ship inventory overnight with a few phone calls by converting civilian blue-water ship production. The US cannot answer because it has almost no civilian ship production to convert. This fact itself is destabilizing because it means China by escalating any naval conflict will surely win.
If the US is serious about protecting its interests in the Pacific, including the basic security and independence of its own Pacific coasts, it must reindustrialize and do so expeditiously. Start by building as much blue-water shipping as China does, and operating large-scale blue-water cargo lines, US owned and based, so that there is a large quickly convertible corps of merchant marines, not to mention the shipping itself available for support. This exercise in itself would nourish a large scale return of the US steel industry, meaning though that all the steel and other components would have to be US sourced.
“DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — A Greek-flagged oil tanker traveling through the Red Sea came under repeated attack Wednesday, leaving the vessel “not under command” and drifting ablaze after an assault suspected to have been carried out by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, the British military said.” https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2024/08/21/greek-tanker-drifting-ablaze-after-suspected-houthi-attacks-in-red-sea/?utm_source=sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=dfn-dnr
Another attack in the Red Sea region, not unexpected but what was the Greek tanker’s distention? Well it turns out that the Greek tanker “Sounion” was traveling from the port of Basra, Iraq to Athens, Greece. Naturally, for some time now, all commercial sea traffic is avoiding the risk in and around the Red Sea. There is an exception and interestingly oil tankers headed for China are not attacked. My question now is has Iran and the Houthi's effectively establish a Red Sea blockade in their favor.
AI tells me that Yemen’s primary export is crude petroleum to China (CCP) to the tune of approximately $533 million in crude oil in 2022. In addition, China exports a variety of goods to Yemen and in 2022 those exports were valued at about $2.8 billion making the trade balance in favor of the CCP.
Seems to me that the US State Department and Military should be breaking out the rule books on Blockades that are regulated by international law and custom and require advance warning to neutral states and impartial application. A Blockade will require planning and diplomatic discussions but will be a real attention getting move for the Houthis, Iran and the CCP.
Simply put, we need more fully manned hulls in the water. I don't know much about naval construction, but first of all we should extend the decommissioning age of all ships by at least 5 years (10 would be better). The LCS should be rearmed with the longest range missiles they can carry. Use the LCS like the PT boats of WWII. We need to develop the industrial base ASAP. Finally, we need a coherent plan on the building of new ships. We can no longer waste money on programs which do not work. The Zumwalt DDs are a case in point. China sees we are stretched by our commitments in the Middle East, and are taking advantage of that in the South China Sea area. On a side note, in this months Proceedings is an article about the new Expeditionary Hospital ship. The question is: in light of today's missile environment, should the hospital ship have defensive armament? Hell, yes!