Compass Points - Better Decisions
How to make better decisions
Compass Points - Better Decisions
How to make better decisions
July 1, 2024
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"Good and evil both increase at compound interest. That is why the little decisions you and I make every day are of such infinite importance."
— C.S. Lewis
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How does a person make good decisions? How does an institution make good decisions? The United States made a decision to install a temporary pier at Gaza so humanitarian supplies could be transported from the Mediterranean, across the pier, and into Gaza for distribution. The pier has been battered by storms and waves and has had to be removed, repaired, replaced, and then removed again. Only a trickle of supplies has moved across the pier and even fewer supplies have actually been distributed. Now, the pier has been removed again and may be removed permanently. The Military Times is reporting, "US removes Gaza aid pier again due to weather and may not reinstall it."
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The pier built by the U.S. military to bring aid to Gaza has been removed due to weather to protect it, and the U.S. is considering not reinstalling it unless the aid begins flowing out into the population again, U.S. officials said Friday.
While the military has helped deliver desperately needed food through the pier, the vast majority of it is still sitting in the adjacent storage yard and that area is almost full. Aid agencies have had difficulty moving the food to areas further into Gaza where it is most needed because the humanitarian convoys have come under attack.
-- Military Times
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While the decision to install the pier was no doubt good-hearted, the pier has not accomplished the goal of providing substantial humanitarian supplies. Weather has interfered. Hamas has interfered. Yet all the problems were easily foreseeable. Both the weather and sea state of the Mediterranean Sea at Gaza are well known. The strength of the temporary pier was well known. The likelihood that Hamas would disrupt distribution was easy to predict. Yet the decision to install the pier has wasted millions of dollars and thousands of man hours. In addition, the spectacle of a unstable pier unable to accomplish a simple supply mission erodes the authority of the United States.
Still, the Gaza pier was only one small decision. The waste of time and money has been relatively small and the injury to reputation, like the pier, can be repaired. Beyond this one unsuccessful decision, how do institution make better decisions?
John Boyd the famous military theorist explained that for better rapid decision making in combat, decisions should be made using the OODA Loop - Observe, Orient, Decide, Act. Institutional decision making, however, proceeds at a speed much slower than combat decision making. How can institutions make better decisions? Specifically, how can the Marine Corps make better decisions?
In their article in Real Clear Defense, authors, Jerry McAbee, Stephen Baird, Michael Marletto, and Timothy Wells provide a brief overview of examples of successful Marine Corps decision making down through the decades. The authors conclude that for better decision making the Marine Corps needs to a full and open process.
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Military innovation and transformation are the products of the marriage of formal and informal processes. The Marine Corps’ formal process is the combat development process, managed by the Marine Corps Combat Development Command in Quantico, Va. The informal process is Corps-wide discussion and debate that helps frame and refine the concepts. The informal process is transparent, inclusive, and encouraged by leaders at all levels. In the words, of 29th Commandant, General Alfred Mason Gray, “if an idea can’t stand up to our own scrutiny, there must be something wrong with it.”
-- Real Clear Defense
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Marines are known for their boldness in combat. The Marine Corps, as an institution, has a history of institutional innovation. Compass Points salutes authors Jerry McAbee & Stephen Baird, Michael Marletto, and Timothy Wells for their fine article and all those who are helping the Marine Corps restore institutional innovation.
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Military Times - 06/30/2024
US removes Gaza aid pier again due to weather and may not reinstall it
By Tara Copp, AP and Lolita C. Baldor, The Associated Press
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Real Clear Defense - 06/20/2024
Vision 2035: Restoring Marine Corps Capabilities to Fight and Win
By Jerry McAbee, Stephen Baird, Michael Marletto, Timothy Wells
Brigadier General Jerry McAbee (USMC, ret.) is a career artillery officer. He served as the Chief of Staff for the Marine Corps Combat Development Command. His last assignment was Deputy Commander United States Marine Corps Forces Central Command during Operation Iraqi Freedom and Operation Enduring Freedom.
Colonel Stephen (Steve) Baird (USMC, ret.) is a career artillery officer. He served as the Chief of Staff for the 1st Marine Division followed by his last assignment as the Chief of Staff for U.S Marine Corps Forces Command during Operation Iraqi Freedom and Operation Enduring Freedom.
Colonel Michael (Mike) Marletto (USMC, ret.) is a career artillery officer. He served a wide variety of operational assignments, including command of a direct support artillery battalion, command of an artillery regiment (11th Marines) during the attack to Baghdad, and Assistant Chief of Staff G-3 Operations for I Marine Expeditionary Force (Forward) in Iraq.
Colonel Timothy (Tim) Wells (USMC, ret.) is a career infantry officer. He served as G-3 Operations for United States Marine Corps Forces Central Command during Operation Iraqi Freedom and Operation Enduring Freedom. His last assignment was Commanding Officer, Marine Corps Mountain Warfare Training Center.
In my opinion “The Pier” was a “political” decisions, which will eventually be revealed as counter to CentCom recommendations. It is another example of the rejection of sound military advice that resulted in Abbey Gate during the Afghanistan retreat. Read General McKensie’s “The Melting Point”.
One question that comes to mind regarding the Gaza pier is the nature of the mission. Again we see a humanitarian effort mixed with NGO’s, UN, USA civilian support and military support. Who is in charge? 8.5 Tons seems paltry in comparison to the apparent displaced and larger refugee numbers and urban war fighting going on around them.
If this was a MEU or MEB going ashore how would this be conducted, presumably once across the beach the Marine force would need a lot of tonnage to support ongoing operations. Is there intersectionality between the two kinds of operations that can be stitched together to make a better mousetrap because it seems this one ain’t working.
From jump knowing sea state, the beach topography and the area, couldn’t a couple of old freighters or tankers headed for the scrapper, be brought in and run up on the beach as far as possible and basically sunk in place and used as a break water for the pier? If you need four old ships to get it done sink four. At this point any issues about the environmental impacts seem moot.
Not to throw stones but if the MEU or larger had engineers they might have some ideas as well. If not our own engineers, surely the Seabees would have a handle on the effort.
All decisons have results and consequences. The pier is one grand example of decisons big and small having a larger impact.