Compass Points - China Rehearsal?
US criticizes China's actions.
Compass Points - China Rehearsal?
US criticizes China's actions.
June 20, 2024
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There is no letup in the confrontation between China and the Philippines in and around the Second Thomas Shoal. In the latest incident, a Philippine ship was rammed, and a Philippine sailor injured.
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U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Wednesday held a call with Philippine Foreign Secretary Enrique Manalo to discuss China's actions in the South China Sea, which Manila and Washington have called escalatory.
Britain, Canada and the United States have condemned China's actions, which occurred as Beijing's new coast guard rules allowing it to detain trespassers without trial took effect on June 15.
China claims almost the entire South China Sea, which includes the Second Thomas Shoal, where the Philippines maintains a warship, Sierra Madre, beached in 1999 to reinforce its sovereignty claims, with a small crew.
. . . A Philippine sailor suffered serious injury after what its military described as "intentional-high speed ramming" by the Chinese Coast Guard, aiming to disrupt a routine resupply mission on June 17. The Philippine military also said the incident damaged Manila's vessels.
China's Coast Guard disputed that, saying Manila's vessel deliberately and dangerously approached a Chinese ship in an unprofessional manner, forcing it to take control measures, including "boarding inspections and forced evictions".
-- US News / Reuters
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China is using its coast guard and other vessels to continually confront Philippine vessels near the Second Thomas Shoal. Some reports indicate the Chinese coast guard attacked in small boats with axes, long knives and spears. As bad as the incident was, it may be worse than it seems. China may be doing more, much more than just attacking one ship.
The Taiwan News is reporting on a recent study from the US think tank, CSIS. The CSIS study analyzes the three types of interventions China could use against Taiwan. First, starting with the most serious, China could stage an amphibious assault on Taiwan, invade, and take control of the island.
Next, a step down from a full invasion, would be a military blockade which would cut off Taiwan from exchanging goods with the rest of the world. Finally, the third option would be to quarantine Taiwan using, not the military, but using coast guard, police, and other more civilian water borne forces, to hinder and harass Taiwan ships.
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On June 5, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) released a paper asserting that China is more likely to impose a quarantine on Taiwan in the short term rather than a full blockade. Under this scheme, Beijing would publicly announce stricter customs regulations and deploy coast guard ships to target ports like Kaohsiung, boarding "non-compliant" ships, thus establishing a “new normal” in the Taiwan Strait.
-- Taiwan News
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How might a quarantine of Taiwan take place?
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Days or weeks before the quarantine begins, Beijing would mobilize its coast guard's maritime law enforcement units, some military forces, and nearby maritime militia fishing vessels.
China would publicly announce “enhanced customs inspection rules,” avoiding terms like "quarantine" or "blockade." All cargo ships and oil tankers entering Taiwan would need to submit customs declarations to Chinese authorities in advance. Chinese maritime law enforcement personnel would be authorized to board and inspect ships, question crews, and take punitive steps against non-compliant vessels.
The quarantine measures would commence within 48 hours of the announcement. Chinese authorities would not disclose specific inspection locations, but the plan would be to target Taiwan's busiest port, Kaohsiung.
-- Taiwan News
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Can the US put together any force that could help deter China in all three possible interventions:
1. Invasion
2. Blockade
3. Quarantine
Deterring a Chinese invasion of Taiwan obviously requires a massive, constant, and coordinated diplomatic, economic, and military deterrence. The power and flexibility of a forward deployed Marine Air Ground Task Force is an important part of that deterrence.
In the case of a blockade or quarantine, the value of Marine amphibious forces grows. One or more ARG-MEUs in the Taiwan Strait could conduct operations to help ensure freedom of navigation and freedom of commerce. An ARG-MEU could assist commercial ships attacked coming in and out of Taiwan's ports.
The Second Thomas Shoal is a submerged reef in the Spratly Islands of the South China Sea. It has no economic value. Yet, there is no end in sight for the constant confrontations between China and the Philippines near the Second Thomas Shoal. Many say the fighting over a reef is really about the South China Sea. But could it be something even bigger?
Is China preparing for a quarantine of Taiwan through the use of its confrontational quarantine of the Second Thomas Shoal? The CSIS study suggests China may be planning a quarantine of Taiwan. If China is planning to impose a quarantine on Taiwan, they might be practicing now in the Spratly Islands.
Three levels of danger: 1. Invasion; 2. Blockade; and 3. Quarantine. Is the Marine Corps ready for all three? The Nation needs a full strength, combined arms, global crisis response force that can arrive quickly and help with everything from humanitarian crises to armed conflict. In the Pacific and around the world, the need for a combined arms Marine Corps endures.
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US News / Reuters - 06/19/2024
Blinken Discusses China's Actions in South China Sea With Philippine Counterpart
By Reuters - Kanishka Singh
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Taiwan News - 06/10/2024
CSIS outlines China's possible quarantine of Taiwan
Beijing could deploy coast guard to impose 'customs inspections' on ports such as Kaohsiung, Keelung
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/news/5887170
For video clips and additional detail of the confrontation between PRC Coast Guard and Philippine Military, see "Only Pirates Do This: China Wields Axes and Knives in South China Sea Fight" at https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/only-pirates-do-this-china-wields-axes-and-knives-in-south-china-sea-fight-c2467248?mod=hp_lead_pos9.
PRC is engaging in gray zone operations. They are using ships with superior size, speed, and armament AND they are using superior numbers to contest littorals and sea spaces. Note also that they are using "information operations" (PRC "legal" claims to areas; "dangerous" and "provocative" acts by others, etc.) as cover for these gray zone operations.
The trend is toward both more gray zone operations and increasing aggressiveness.
Current Marine leadership’s continued advocacy for the LSM is an example of refusing to face the reality of PRC gray zone operations. PRC numbers, size of ships, and speed of ships provides dominant capability. The slow, small, lightly armed LSM operating in contested waters will face similar “muscle” operations. Results: 1) Muscled away from providing supplies to “contested” areas; 2) Injuries and capture similar to Pueblo; or 3) Escalation to armed conflict.
Current Marine Generals are advocating for a ship that is a problem now and failing to envision the trend line over the envisaged 20-year service life of LSM: More sovereign littorals and sea spaces will become “contested” as PRC continues gray zone “muscle” operations. The LSM is an incident waiting to happen during pre-war gray zone operations and is already billed by its supporters as a “run and hide” ship during war. A loser in both scenarios.
With respect to the Philippines China will only understand one thing and that is strength. The US and the Philippines need to decide whether they want to vigorously counter this blatant aggression. If so then we need to show China that we can and will be forceful. China will never back down if there is only talk.....and more talk! Certainly, there are dangers but there is also a tremendous amount of danger with letting China continue to up the ante when it comes to the aforementioned.
With respect to Taiwan whether we want to admit it or not we sold them down the river years ago. When we broadcast to the world that Taiwan was in fact part of China, but they had a different form of government. We allowed Taiwan to be thrown out of the UN. Yes, we have supplied Taiwan with billions of $$$ worth of armaments which have made many in the military industrial complex very rich. Also, all of us have benefited by the tradeoff of allowing Taiwan to exist in a nonexistent space. To this day billions and billions of $$$ are being made by hundreds of American corporations as well as others from around the world. We sold our respective souls to the devil. So, if we agree that Taiwan is in fact part of China then when China decides to bring Taiwan back into its orbit and Taiwan resists then it can rightfully be said that it would be a civil war. An internal matter! As much as I love Taiwan and its people how on earth are we going to be able to square this circle unless we admit that we were wrong, and that Taiwan should be an independent nation!!!! Probably way too late for that at this juncture! We have been fooling ourselves that China would see it our way and leave Taiwan alone! Deluded thinking by many people of all political parties. Soon we will pay the price and the price will be enormous. We should have never ever permitted Taiwan to be delisted from the UN. We should have insisted that Taiwan is a separate and distinct nation from China. But we were overwhelmed with the prospect of opening China up and having many fat cats get fatter! We will pay a price for this and so will Taiwan.