PRC is engaging in gray zone operations. They are using ships with superior size, speed, and armament AND they are using superior numbers to contest littorals and sea spaces. Note also that they are using "information operations" (PRC "legal" claims to areas; "dangerous" and "provocative" acts by others, etc.) as cover for these gray zone operations.
The trend is toward both more gray zone operations and increasing aggressiveness.
Current Marine leadership’s continued advocacy for the LSM is an example of refusing to face the reality of PRC gray zone operations. PRC numbers, size of ships, and speed of ships provides dominant capability. The slow, small, lightly armed LSM operating in contested waters will face similar “muscle” operations. Results: 1) Muscled away from providing supplies to “contested” areas; 2) Injuries and capture similar to Pueblo; or 3) Escalation to armed conflict.
Current Marine Generals are advocating for a ship that is a problem now and failing to envision the trend line over the envisaged 20-year service life of LSM: More sovereign littorals and sea spaces will become “contested” as PRC continues gray zone “muscle” operations. The LSM is an incident waiting to happen during pre-war gray zone operations and is already billed by its supporters as a “run and hide” ship during war. A loser in both scenarios.
Apparently CMC does not read MCIA or IndoPacCom products , or the other 3 Letter Agency Products or participate in the Ford Island Study Group which has been in action for many years. FD is a total embarrassment. The amount of OSINT is voluminous.
With respect to the Philippines China will only understand one thing and that is strength. The US and the Philippines need to decide whether they want to vigorously counter this blatant aggression. If so then we need to show China that we can and will be forceful. China will never back down if there is only talk.....and more talk! Certainly, there are dangers but there is also a tremendous amount of danger with letting China continue to up the ante when it comes to the aforementioned.
With respect to Taiwan whether we want to admit it or not we sold them down the river years ago. When we broadcast to the world that Taiwan was in fact part of China, but they had a different form of government. We allowed Taiwan to be thrown out of the UN. Yes, we have supplied Taiwan with billions of $$$ worth of armaments which have made many in the military industrial complex very rich. Also, all of us have benefited by the tradeoff of allowing Taiwan to exist in a nonexistent space. To this day billions and billions of $$$ are being made by hundreds of American corporations as well as others from around the world. We sold our respective souls to the devil. So, if we agree that Taiwan is in fact part of China then when China decides to bring Taiwan back into its orbit and Taiwan resists then it can rightfully be said that it would be a civil war. An internal matter! As much as I love Taiwan and its people how on earth are we going to be able to square this circle unless we admit that we were wrong, and that Taiwan should be an independent nation!!!! Probably way too late for that at this juncture! We have been fooling ourselves that China would see it our way and leave Taiwan alone! Deluded thinking by many people of all political parties. Soon we will pay the price and the price will be enormous. We should have never ever permitted Taiwan to be delisted from the UN. We should have insisted that Taiwan is a separate and distinct nation from China. But we were overwhelmed with the prospect of opening China up and having many fat cats get fatter! We will pay a price for this and so will Taiwan.
I do hope SecDef, CJCS, SecNav, CNO, CMC, AND the C/S of our ARMY have read this piece by BGen Holcomb. I’d throw in that mix SecDoS. DirCIA, and other of like positions. Gen Holcomb has done the nation a big favor: he has laid out i. A direct manner & with current fact what happens to Naval shipping when it is in hot contest with shipping built for the purpose of fighting at sea - it loses, first, because it can not run fast enough from the fight, and, secondly, its fire power is next to nonexistent. The old adage applies, to wit: don’t take a knife to a gun fight. Other authors herein have been striking the same theme regarding this particular vessel. Moreover, it is a larger issue than just the USMC obvious need. We’re nuts if we believe we’re going anywhere to fight a peer/near peer foe without the USA located somewhere nearby. The Army will need effective transport & combat support! So, the CSA needs to be paying attention, weighing in with some sanity. Gen Holcomb has done his homework, and those of us who’ve been around for a while recognize his dry-eyed analysis has merit. I hope our current leaders are paying attention. Semper Fidelis!
In addition to the LSM, being “late” “behind in development” apparently by some 2 years and counting, billions spent and more to come, the vessel doesn’t meet the world we inhabit now and into the future. Best loss is the first loss. Cut the project from the budgets. Move on. Get ships and support for those ships along the lines that General Holcomb lays bare, bigger, faster, more fire power.
In all the discussion of Taiwan and CCP desire to add it into their balance sheet of the Middle Kingdom, the Party might ask itself what happens, if they and their Han Dynasty Shar Pei dog catch the Taiwan bus. Assume 23-25 million population of Taiwan, assume a small percentage are all for the merger, but a vast majority do not desire to be merged; geographically it isn’t Hong Kong, and the majority may just decide to make the mainland political party rather miserable. Presumptively the acquisition of Taiwan is partly cultural, political and mostly financial, insurgency can be waged in all manner of ways. How much of a HOT war is the United States prepared to wage with the Chinese mainland over the Island? Well how much do the Chinese and Taiwan economies support USA and global financial interests? How long does it take the States to manufacture that which those two entities currently provide? Point is, whether we have a peer to peer fight, which devastates the global economies, tend our two nations, or we don’t; but, we still need the amphibious lift and capability to support, MEU, MAB and MEF actions. We need a Navy that can bring sustained firepower to the fight, and defend itself, but the majority of the USMC operations, if history is any guide, will be the bread and butter fighting or support activity that the MAGTF has traditionally engaged in for coming on 250 years. The vessels need to be sustainable and flexible and accretive. No more divest to invest. If the Corps is looking for a new recruiting theme it might be brush and small forest fires are our business and oh and by the way we do humanitarian works too, hold the pickles, hold the lettuce, special orders don’t upset us.
What is really clear is how totally unaligned the Navy Department, Department of the Navy and Marine Corps are at the moment. While it is important to pin the tail on the Donkeys and we have have our share, it is not helping. Realignment is critical. Either we are going to live up to Title X or we are not. If it comes to a peer to peer fight it will be all services and the US economy on deck, the outcome uncertain. What is certain is the traditional role of the Corps aka Title X for the last several decades, is ongoing and needs support. This flexibility is so annoying to the sister services that they want us and our pesky “Ethos” removed from the defense budgetary process and put safely away where we can’t hurt anyone. Well we shall see what we shall see.
For video clips and additional detail of the confrontation between PRC Coast Guard and Philippine Military, see "Only Pirates Do This: China Wields Axes and Knives in South China Sea Fight" at https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/only-pirates-do-this-china-wields-axes-and-knives-in-south-china-sea-fight-c2467248?mod=hp_lead_pos9.
PRC is engaging in gray zone operations. They are using ships with superior size, speed, and armament AND they are using superior numbers to contest littorals and sea spaces. Note also that they are using "information operations" (PRC "legal" claims to areas; "dangerous" and "provocative" acts by others, etc.) as cover for these gray zone operations.
The trend is toward both more gray zone operations and increasing aggressiveness.
Current Marine leadership’s continued advocacy for the LSM is an example of refusing to face the reality of PRC gray zone operations. PRC numbers, size of ships, and speed of ships provides dominant capability. The slow, small, lightly armed LSM operating in contested waters will face similar “muscle” operations. Results: 1) Muscled away from providing supplies to “contested” areas; 2) Injuries and capture similar to Pueblo; or 3) Escalation to armed conflict.
Current Marine Generals are advocating for a ship that is a problem now and failing to envision the trend line over the envisaged 20-year service life of LSM: More sovereign littorals and sea spaces will become “contested” as PRC continues gray zone “muscle” operations. The LSM is an incident waiting to happen during pre-war gray zone operations and is already billed by its supporters as a “run and hide” ship during war. A loser in both scenarios.
Apparently CMC does not read MCIA or IndoPacCom products , or the other 3 Letter Agency Products or participate in the Ford Island Study Group which has been in action for many years. FD is a total embarrassment. The amount of OSINT is voluminous.
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With respect to the Philippines China will only understand one thing and that is strength. The US and the Philippines need to decide whether they want to vigorously counter this blatant aggression. If so then we need to show China that we can and will be forceful. China will never back down if there is only talk.....and more talk! Certainly, there are dangers but there is also a tremendous amount of danger with letting China continue to up the ante when it comes to the aforementioned.
With respect to Taiwan whether we want to admit it or not we sold them down the river years ago. When we broadcast to the world that Taiwan was in fact part of China, but they had a different form of government. We allowed Taiwan to be thrown out of the UN. Yes, we have supplied Taiwan with billions of $$$ worth of armaments which have made many in the military industrial complex very rich. Also, all of us have benefited by the tradeoff of allowing Taiwan to exist in a nonexistent space. To this day billions and billions of $$$ are being made by hundreds of American corporations as well as others from around the world. We sold our respective souls to the devil. So, if we agree that Taiwan is in fact part of China then when China decides to bring Taiwan back into its orbit and Taiwan resists then it can rightfully be said that it would be a civil war. An internal matter! As much as I love Taiwan and its people how on earth are we going to be able to square this circle unless we admit that we were wrong, and that Taiwan should be an independent nation!!!! Probably way too late for that at this juncture! We have been fooling ourselves that China would see it our way and leave Taiwan alone! Deluded thinking by many people of all political parties. Soon we will pay the price and the price will be enormous. We should have never ever permitted Taiwan to be delisted from the UN. We should have insisted that Taiwan is a separate and distinct nation from China. But we were overwhelmed with the prospect of opening China up and having many fat cats get fatter! We will pay a price for this and so will Taiwan.
You Tube “Task and Purpose “Channel has a detailed segment on the 3 elements of CCP PRC Naval Assets. It is massive.
I do hope SecDef, CJCS, SecNav, CNO, CMC, AND the C/S of our ARMY have read this piece by BGen Holcomb. I’d throw in that mix SecDoS. DirCIA, and other of like positions. Gen Holcomb has done the nation a big favor: he has laid out i. A direct manner & with current fact what happens to Naval shipping when it is in hot contest with shipping built for the purpose of fighting at sea - it loses, first, because it can not run fast enough from the fight, and, secondly, its fire power is next to nonexistent. The old adage applies, to wit: don’t take a knife to a gun fight. Other authors herein have been striking the same theme regarding this particular vessel. Moreover, it is a larger issue than just the USMC obvious need. We’re nuts if we believe we’re going anywhere to fight a peer/near peer foe without the USA located somewhere nearby. The Army will need effective transport & combat support! So, the CSA needs to be paying attention, weighing in with some sanity. Gen Holcomb has done his homework, and those of us who’ve been around for a while recognize his dry-eyed analysis has merit. I hope our current leaders are paying attention. Semper Fidelis!
In addition to the LSM, being “late” “behind in development” apparently by some 2 years and counting, billions spent and more to come, the vessel doesn’t meet the world we inhabit now and into the future. Best loss is the first loss. Cut the project from the budgets. Move on. Get ships and support for those ships along the lines that General Holcomb lays bare, bigger, faster, more fire power.
In all the discussion of Taiwan and CCP desire to add it into their balance sheet of the Middle Kingdom, the Party might ask itself what happens, if they and their Han Dynasty Shar Pei dog catch the Taiwan bus. Assume 23-25 million population of Taiwan, assume a small percentage are all for the merger, but a vast majority do not desire to be merged; geographically it isn’t Hong Kong, and the majority may just decide to make the mainland political party rather miserable. Presumptively the acquisition of Taiwan is partly cultural, political and mostly financial, insurgency can be waged in all manner of ways. How much of a HOT war is the United States prepared to wage with the Chinese mainland over the Island? Well how much do the Chinese and Taiwan economies support USA and global financial interests? How long does it take the States to manufacture that which those two entities currently provide? Point is, whether we have a peer to peer fight, which devastates the global economies, tend our two nations, or we don’t; but, we still need the amphibious lift and capability to support, MEU, MAB and MEF actions. We need a Navy that can bring sustained firepower to the fight, and defend itself, but the majority of the USMC operations, if history is any guide, will be the bread and butter fighting or support activity that the MAGTF has traditionally engaged in for coming on 250 years. The vessels need to be sustainable and flexible and accretive. No more divest to invest. If the Corps is looking for a new recruiting theme it might be brush and small forest fires are our business and oh and by the way we do humanitarian works too, hold the pickles, hold the lettuce, special orders don’t upset us.
What is really clear is how totally unaligned the Navy Department, Department of the Navy and Marine Corps are at the moment. While it is important to pin the tail on the Donkeys and we have have our share, it is not helping. Realignment is critical. Either we are going to live up to Title X or we are not. If it comes to a peer to peer fight it will be all services and the US economy on deck, the outcome uncertain. What is certain is the traditional role of the Corps aka Title X for the last several decades, is ongoing and needs support. This flexibility is so annoying to the sister services that they want us and our pesky “Ethos” removed from the defense budgetary process and put safely away where we can’t hurt anyone. Well we shall see what we shall see.