Compass Points - China's Plan
How China might attack
Compass Points - China's Plan
How China might attack
August 8, 2024
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How would China invade Taiwan? Most commentators who have studied the question have come to believe a part of the answer would be an amphibious landing by the China marines. For example, in his book, "World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the 21st Century" author Dmitri Alperovitch speculates:
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Achieving the invasion’s main political objective—the rapid assault and capture of key government installations in Taipei, including the Presidential Office Building and the Ministry of National Defense—relied on assault forces delivered by dozens of fast Type 726 Yuyi-class air-cushioned landing craft (LCAC) racing up the Tamsui River. The wide but relatively shallow river snakes through the mountains that separate the beaches on Taiwan’s western shore from the center of the city and empties into the strait in the Bali district right next to the Port of Taipei; its tributaries pass near most of the key government installations in the city.
That geography meant that the LCACs—deployed from the Yushen amphibious ships sitting at the mouth of the Tamsui and powered by large gas turbines and capable of achieving speeds of 80 knots—could deliver a battalion of marines and armored vehicles directly into the heart of Taipei’s government district in under 15 minutes. The one-two punch of the fast boats advancing up the river while airborne troops landed via rotor and fixed-wing aviation at the Taipei Songshan Airport would allow the PLA to rapidly bring the fight to Taiwan’s seat of government.
While the PLAN marines captured Taipei’s government and communications centers, the armored and infantry divisions would arrive on the island’s northwestern coast, unload at the port and nearby airport on the other side of the mountains from Taipei city center, and then drive onto the highways that encircle Taiwan, racing toward the key population centers and military bases and hoping to overwhelm defenses. Having exercised each element of the plan for years, including simulated fast LCAC-boat city assaults on the Pearl River near Hong Kong, Xi Jinping’s military generals assured him that the plan would achieve a rapid conquest of Taiwan before the rest of the world, especially the United States, had a chance to intervene to save the island.
-- World on the Brink
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Author and Marine Grant Newsham, who has his own book, "When China Attacks: A Warning to America" has recently warned that the danger of China attacking Taiwan remains very real.
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Communist China always telegraphs its punches—even if you don’t quite know when they’re coming.
Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leader Xi Jinping told U.S. President Joe Biden last November in San Francisco that talking about Taiwan is well and good, but he won’t wait forever.
Before Taiwan’s election in January, Beijing warned that it was a choice between peace and prosperity or war and decline. So vote for the KMT. But most Taiwanese didn’t.
The People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA’s) Joint Sword-2024A exercises in May were intended to “punish” Taiwan for the voters’ temerity in choosing their own destiny—and more are reportedly coming.
China’s defense minister was uncompromising at the recent Shangri-La Dialogue regarding Taiwan (and everything else). He wasn’t winging it.
Commentators offer a range of scenarios for what the punches might look like, including the Chinese regime blockading Taiwan, blustering, squeezing, and isolating until Taiwan folds, seizing Taiwan’s off-shore islands, or an all-out kinetic assault to take all of Taiwan.
There are arguments for all of these.
But it’s prudent to plan for the worst.
What Did the PLA Demonstrate in Recent Drills?
The PLA is exercising all “muscle groups” and will do more with Joint Sword exercise phases B, C, and D, which are said to be planned.
The Chinese military is honing skills for joint/combined operations and practicing specific capabilities: rockets, naval, air, ground, logistics, cyber, electronic, intelligence collections, targeting, etc. The PLA is tightening operational (and psychological) pressure on Taiwan and gauging Taipei’s and, most importantly, Washington’s reactions.
The PLA is at a point where it can move from exercise to “the real thing” in relatively short order—if the political decision is made to do so.
-- Grant Newsham
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The Marine Corps has spent the last five years creating new Marine Littoral Regiments that aim to put Marine Stand-in-Forces on Pacific islands. What effect would these units have in the case of an attack by China? On answer comes from, "When China Attacks, A Warning to America."
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In the Philippines, U.S. Marines rush several of their new "littoral units" into position on Northern Luzon and the islands in the Bashi Channel between the Philippines and Taiwan. The New People's Army guerrillas and their Chinese advisors are waiting for the Americans, who never get the chance to deploy their anti-ship missiles against Chinese ships. There are pockets of bravery, but that is all.
-- When China Attacks, A Warning to America
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In the same way, a series of wargames by the think-tank, CSIS, that studied an invasion of Taiwan, found that the Marine island Stand-in-Forces would be mostly out of place and ineffective among the heavy losses suffered by the US, Taiwan, and Japan.
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What was once unthinkable—direct conflict between the United States and China—has now become a commonplace discussion in the national security community. Although Chinese plans are unclear, a military invasion is not out of the question and would constitute China’s most dangerous solution to its “Taiwan problem.”
This CSIS project designed a wargame to model a Chinese amphibious invasion of Taiwan in 2026 and ran it 24 times in a variety of scenarios. Although Taiwan survived as an autonomous entity in most scenarios, losses to the United States, Taiwan, and Japan were heavy.
-- CSIS, The First Battle of the Next War
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Some observers believe that war has moved beyond infantry battles. Some observers believe commanders need to focus only on cyber, satellites, precision munitions, and A.I. But such observers are wrong. Technology can upgrade and enhance mobile infantry, but technology can never replace it. To take Taiwan, China must use mobile infantry. China will have to land infantry on Taiwan, by planes and by ships, take physical possession of the island, and force the residents to surrender. There is no cyber strategy, no satellite strategy, no precision munitions strategy, and not even any A.I strategy that by itself can conquer Taiwan. It takes infantry on the ground to win.
For more than 100 years, the Marine Corps has provided the US with global, flexible, highly trained, combined arms forces, always on patrol around the world, ready to arrive offshore of any crisis to deter, assist, or fight. The world is a dangerous place. There is no end to the challenges and threats facing the United States. Policy makers will continue to need the power and flexibility of amphibious ships loaded with Marines. With so many worldwide dangers, the Marine Corps must end its drift toward a defensive, sit and sense Marine Corps and return the focus to America's global 911 Force -- the Marines!
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Wired - 06/19/2024
This Is What Would Happen if China Invaded Taiwan
The new book, 'World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the 21st Century' lays out what might actually happen if China were to invade Taiwan in 2028.
By Dmitri Alperovitch
https://www.wired.com/story/this-is-what-would-happen-if-china-invaded-taiwan/
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The Epoch Times - 06/13/2024
China and Taiwan: The ‘Punch’ Is Coming Sooner Rather Than Later
By Grant Newsham
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CSIS - 01/09/2023
Report Launch―The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan
By Mark Cancian, et al.
https://www.csis.org/events/report-launch-first-battle-next-war-wargaming-chinese-invasion-taiwan
One of the best things I have seen is the attached link. Lays out 6 scenarios for China and Taiwan. Until this, I had no idea that there were Taiwanese islands literally within 5 miles of the mainland coast of China.
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/taiwan-china-wargames/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=EBB%2011.08.2021&utm_term=Editorial%20-%20Early%20Bird%20Brief
It is becoming increasingly clear that sooner or later the USMC will have to RETAKE Chinese conquests in the Western Pacific by amphibious assault. Taiwan will be the first of China's acquisitions, not the last.