One of the best things I have seen is the attached link. Lays out 6 scenarios for China and Taiwan. Until this, I had no idea that there were Taiwanese islands literally within 5 miles of the mainland coast of China.
It is becoming increasingly clear that sooner or later the USMC will have to RETAKE Chinese conquests in the Western Pacific by amphibious assault. Taiwan will be the first of China's acquisitions, not the last.
Marines … Listen to this man. Huber. He has been a colleague for the past 21 years. He says an awful lot in few words. He may be the intellectually toughest man I know. Very clear sighted, and knows that of which he speaks.
Warning! Warning, Will Robinson! (From the TV Show, Lost in Space)
When discussing the China’s Plan we cannot assume that the CCP does not know how to conduct an amphibious assault. As Mao’s Armies completed the securing of China’s mainland, Mao turned his attention to the need to secure China’s littorals islands in order to keep access of China’s ports open to the needed SLOCs. Mao would task his Communist Army Generals, who possessed no naval or amphibious warfare experience to conduct littoral amphibious campaigns as follows:
- Zhoushan Islands campaign, August – November 1949 (protect Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Ningbo)
- Xiamen and Jinmen (Kinmen) Island campaign, October 1949 (protect Nanjing and Shanghai)
- Hainan Island campaign, March – May 1950 (Hainan comparable in size to Taiwan and second in strategic importance to Taiwan)
- Pishan Island campaign, July 1950 (protect Taizhou)
- Wanshan Islands campaign, May - August 1950 ( isolate Hong Kong)
I should note that the Jinmen (Kinmen) Island amphibious assault was a disaster for the Communist Army. Lack of good intelligence, rushed planning, bad weather, lack of shipping, a lack of knowledge of tides and local currents, and a bad deception plan all contributed to the debacle. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Guningtou However, Mao immediately order the responsible generals to conduct a lessons learned study and they quickly established and took corrective actions. The Communist generals demonstrated the amazing ability to adapt, change and establish amphibious doctrine based on those lessons learned.
The gap between the China mainland and Hainan Island is 15 miles. On 16 April, the PLA amphibious assault landed over 100,000 (in 24 hours) taking 4000 casualties from the ROC air force and naval actions. The communist troops crossed using 318 “junks”. By 23 April, Hainan Island amphibious operation as complete and the island secured. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Hainan_Island
Impressive!
Reference: Mao’s Army Goes to Sea; The Island Campaigns and the Founding of China’s Navy by Toshi Yoshihara; Georgetown University Press, Washington DC, 2022.
I know it’s an unpopular viewpoint and this may be the last place to express it. But, why defend Taiwan at all? It isn’t about the chip industry. China already manufactures the bulk of what we use. Seems to be, with its extremely underpaid working class dominated by elites, purchased by multi-national corporations - whose assets they want us to defend - would be no worse off. And, Formosa/Taiwan was part of China when Chiang kai-Shek fled there with the Chinese national treasury in 1949.
I love the Marine Corps and I don’t want one American life in harm’s way, not one dollar spent to protect those assets. World stages ane not all potential war zones.
At the risk of making a 'Prussian' of myself, I'll quote Frederick the Great. "Everything which the enemy least expects will succeed the best."
Taiwan is the obvious target, and clearly expected. However, the US could spend a great deal of effort/resources preparing to defend Taiwan, only to find the attack comes elsewhere. If so, defending islands with fixed installations might not be the right strategy. Also, at the rate China is developing its chip and related industries, there might be little to be gained by attacking Taiwan, especially if those industries are decimated by war, and Taiwan's best engineers and scientists flee elsewhere.
One of the best things I have seen is the attached link. Lays out 6 scenarios for China and Taiwan. Until this, I had no idea that there were Taiwanese islands literally within 5 miles of the mainland coast of China.
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/taiwan-china-wargames/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=EBB%2011.08.2021&utm_term=Editorial%20-%20Early%20Bird%20Brief
It is becoming increasingly clear that sooner or later the USMC will have to RETAKE Chinese conquests in the Western Pacific by amphibious assault. Taiwan will be the first of China's acquisitions, not the last.
Marines … Listen to this man. Huber. He has been a colleague for the past 21 years. He says an awful lot in few words. He may be the intellectually toughest man I know. Very clear sighted, and knows that of which he speaks.
Warning! Warning, Will Robinson! (From the TV Show, Lost in Space)
When discussing the China’s Plan we cannot assume that the CCP does not know how to conduct an amphibious assault. As Mao’s Armies completed the securing of China’s mainland, Mao turned his attention to the need to secure China’s littorals islands in order to keep access of China’s ports open to the needed SLOCs. Mao would task his Communist Army Generals, who possessed no naval or amphibious warfare experience to conduct littoral amphibious campaigns as follows:
- Zhoushan Islands campaign, August – November 1949 (protect Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Ningbo)
- Xiamen and Jinmen (Kinmen) Island campaign, October 1949 (protect Nanjing and Shanghai)
- Hainan Island campaign, March – May 1950 (Hainan comparable in size to Taiwan and second in strategic importance to Taiwan)
- Pishan Island campaign, July 1950 (protect Taizhou)
- Wanshan Islands campaign, May - August 1950 ( isolate Hong Kong)
I should note that the Jinmen (Kinmen) Island amphibious assault was a disaster for the Communist Army. Lack of good intelligence, rushed planning, bad weather, lack of shipping, a lack of knowledge of tides and local currents, and a bad deception plan all contributed to the debacle. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Guningtou However, Mao immediately order the responsible generals to conduct a lessons learned study and they quickly established and took corrective actions. The Communist generals demonstrated the amazing ability to adapt, change and establish amphibious doctrine based on those lessons learned.
The gap between the China mainland and Hainan Island is 15 miles. On 16 April, the PLA amphibious assault landed over 100,000 (in 24 hours) taking 4000 casualties from the ROC air force and naval actions. The communist troops crossed using 318 “junks”. By 23 April, Hainan Island amphibious operation as complete and the island secured. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Hainan_Island
Impressive!
Reference: Mao’s Army Goes to Sea; The Island Campaigns and the Founding of China’s Navy by Toshi Yoshihara; Georgetown University Press, Washington DC, 2022.
I know it’s an unpopular viewpoint and this may be the last place to express it. But, why defend Taiwan at all? It isn’t about the chip industry. China already manufactures the bulk of what we use. Seems to be, with its extremely underpaid working class dominated by elites, purchased by multi-national corporations - whose assets they want us to defend - would be no worse off. And, Formosa/Taiwan was part of China when Chiang kai-Shek fled there with the Chinese national treasury in 1949.
I love the Marine Corps and I don’t want one American life in harm’s way, not one dollar spent to protect those assets. World stages ane not all potential war zones.
At the risk of making a 'Prussian' of myself, I'll quote Frederick the Great. "Everything which the enemy least expects will succeed the best."
Taiwan is the obvious target, and clearly expected. However, the US could spend a great deal of effort/resources preparing to defend Taiwan, only to find the attack comes elsewhere. If so, defending islands with fixed installations might not be the right strategy. Also, at the rate China is developing its chip and related industries, there might be little to be gained by attacking Taiwan, especially if those industries are decimated by war, and Taiwan's best engineers and scientists flee elsewhere.
So, what would be least expected?
Well, once it was Hawaii?