Compass Points - Gray zone Marines
Marines can help in the gray zone.
Compass Points - Gray zone Marines
Marines can help in the gray zone.
August 12, 2024
.
China is a danger to the US and to US interests.
There is much more to the China threat, though, than only the danger of a full-scale military attack on Taiwan. China is a global power working to capture nations all over the world in a web of influence and domination. Even in the Pacific, China is relying less on direct military attacks and more on gray zone actions.
In his article, "How to Respond to China's Tactics in the South China Sea" Derek Grossman -- Rand senior defense analyst and adjunct professor at the University of Southern California, -- warns of China's actions in the gray zone
.
============
.
In fact, China has the Philippines in an ever-tightening stranglehold that is increasingly compromising the latter's sovereignty and territorial integrity at sea. If international law is to be upheld and borders are to remain inviolable, the United States must do more to help the Philippines. Yet neither Manila nor Washington seem to have a viable plan to counter Beijing's successful gray-zone tactics.
-- RAND, Derek Grossman
.
============
.
How serious is the danger from China?
.
============
.
The odds of armed conflict in the South China Sea are high and rising. China's relentless assertiveness against the Philippines—harassing ships inside Manila's internationally recognized Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), most notably at Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal—has led to a situation where war in the South China Sea now seems more likely than at any other Indo-Pacific flash point, including the Taiwan Strait and Korean Peninsula.
-- RAND, Derek Grossman
.
============
.
And it is not only the Philippines beefing up their military and taking states to defend against China. Vietnam is taking steps as well. A recent article in the Washington post details how Vietnam is, "Vietnam accelerates island building to challenge China’s maritime claims -- As tensions mount in the South China Sea, Vietnam is dredging and filling in land, fortifying barriers and erecting new structures to create hundreds of acres."
What can the US do to defend against China's growing actions in the gray zone? Author Grossman has his own ideas.
.
============
.
Another option is for the U.S. military to play a more direct role in the region. Asia security expert Blake Herzinger recently argued that one way of bolstering deterrence and repelling China's gray-zone tactics is to remove the Sierra Madre and replace it with a combined forward operating base used by both Philippine forces and the U.S. Marine Corps. Other researchers have argued for varying levels of U.S. involvement without establishing a base—such as combined naval or coast guard patrols—with the same aim of enhancing deterrence.
-- RAND, Derek Grossman
.
============
.
The Marine Corps can be a powerful deterrent against China in the gray zone. But any expert is mistaken to advocate landing and leaving Marines on the shoals. Marines should not be stuck on islands or shoals either. In the gray zone, Marines can deter best when Marines have the flexibility and power of amphibious ships. When Marines on amphibious ships arrive at the scene of a conflict near some tiny reef or atoll, the mere presence of Marines makes China ships and surrogates stop their aggressive actions. China's civilian fishing vessels and coast guard want no direct confrontation with Marines. All around the world, but particularly from Aleutians to Australia, more US Marines on more amphibious ships can play a powerful role today in deterring China's gray zone aggressions. Author Grossman worries that, "Yet neither Manila nor Washington seem to have a viable plan to counter Beijing's successful gray-zone tactics." Here is a very simple but viable plan for dealing with Beijing's gray zone tactics: Send in the Marines!
.
- - - - -
.
RAND - 06/03/2024
How to Respond to China's Tactics in the South China Sea
By Derek Grossman
Derek Grossman is a senior defense analyst at RAND, an adjunct professor at the University of Southern California, and a former daily intelligence briefer to the U.S. assistant secretary of defense for Asian and Pacific security affairs.
.
- - - - -
.
Washington Post - 08/09/2024
Vietnam accelerates island building to challenge China’s maritime claims
As tensions mount in the South China Sea, Vietnam is dredging and filling in land, fortifying barriers and erecting new structures to create hundreds of acres.
By Rebecca Tan and Laris Karklis
“China’s Maritime Gray Zone Operations”* are a major strategic issue. Of course, “gray zone” refers to operations between war and peace. I have heard the words “great power competition” (GPC) thrown around more times than I can count but the US does not seem to have a GPC strategy. A GPC main purpose is deterrence as in deter a war. History tells us that a GPC failure can result in a war. Historians are now telling us that one of the causes of WW1 was the failed GPC between England and Germany.
We need to understand that when it comes to naval power and doctrine the US counts Navy combatant and support ships, which we are not able to build and maintain at a competitive rate with the CCP. The CCP Naval Doctrine is based on the “people’s war” concept and includes the PLAN, China’s Coast Guard (CCG), the CCP Maritime Militia and a CCP’s massive fishing fleet. The CCP will and is using all these organizations in a coherent strategy to exploit operational, legal, and alliance GPC gaps.
A great power competition must address a wide range of different competitive area’s including diplomatic, economic, informational, and national defense. Understanding that our Defense Department is civilian led, it is not their responsibility to develop a US great power competition strategy, however, our senior military leaders can point out that an effective military strategy cannot be developed without exploiting “America’s Great-Power Opportunity”**.
A good Great Power Competition Strategy should lead to a Good Military Defense Strategy and maybe we can then figure out how the US Marine Corps can help with both.
*China’s Maritime Gray Zone Operations, edited by Andrew S. Erickson and Ryan D. Martinson; China Maritime Studies Institute and Nava Institute Press, 2019
** America’s Great-Power Opportunity: Revitalizing US Foreign Policy to Meet the Challenges of Strategic Competition by Ali Wyne; Policy Press, 2022
One way to counter China is to have a permanent presence of Philippine, Australian, Japanese, and US ships. I think LCS/frigates would be enough. Also and expeditionary fast transport with a reinforced Marine company should suffice.