Credibility is fragile. Two conditions apply. The first is to have the capacity to act. Second is the intent to act.
Over the past 50 years the US has had the capability to act but came up short on intent. That lack of intent is perceived as a lack of resolve, cowardice or organizational confusion. Our adversaries double down on that by their agents and proxies in our country who warn of escalation, unwinnable circumstances, fear of innocent lives lost, compassion and the supposed legitimate complaints of the enemy. We often cave only to provide time to enemies to get stronger, more lethal and more confident.
We have now entered a new stage where our lack of resolve is now matched by our lack of capability. It is not a given that we could win a conflict over Taiwan. With each passing day China grows stronger while we grow weaker. We watched N Korea become a nuclear power. Iran is on the cusp of becoming one. Pakistan became a nuclear power with hardly an objection. We put significant pressure on Ukraine to give up their nuclear weapons with our security assurances and so as not to provoke Russia. We did nothing when Russia grabbed Crimea. We trickled in support to Ukraine — 31 Tanks and insufficient Artillery ammunition. We fled Afghanistan and gave more to the Taliban.
Even in DoD our mindset is defensive and we structured the entire Marine Corps into a coastal defense force with scant offensive capability. Do we think any adversary is concerned about the USMC any more?
The world is a jungle. Most of our adversaries can smell weakness like Hyenas can smell a kill. Cowardly Lions can’t hang on to being the Alphas in the food chain if they do not instill fear and cannot protect their food.
Our adversaries correctly gaged our lack of resolve. Now they are calculating our reduced capabilities and future looks bright for them.
A tragic failed rescue attempt that resulted in US loss of life and equipment... the writer is CORRECT in that a MEU (SOC) could've successfully completed this mission and saved the lives and foreign policy embarrassment, had such been available in 1979... thank YHWH for CMC Gen Gray and his immediate implementation of the MEU (SOC) capabilities beginning in 1987! I was blessed to be a part of that ORIGINAL one... I was with Command Element 26th MEU (SOC) Comm Plt and served as the designated C/E Comm Plt PSC3A Satcom operator for the MSPF in 1989... I served with 26th MEU (SOC) from 1987-90...
Unfortunately, FD2030 has rendered our MAGTF capabilities to respond to the designated missions for such in any "clime and place" around the globe...
It would seem that nothing in foreign policy happens by chance. Rather a set of events that set off a further set of events or a chain reaction. As Douglas Rape so rightly points out weak state craft leads to weak responses which actually lead to larger and generally worse outcomes.
Case in point we are still dealing (abet poorly) with the consequences of the Ayatollah Khomeini returning to Iran. When the gates of the US Embassy were stormed on or around 18-20 February 1979, 2/2 was the air contingency force. The Alpha increment or elements of it were ordered to head to Teheran. Likely to support the MSG there in maintaining a secure post. For whatever reasons President Carter changed his mind and that lead element of Marines made it to Cyprus and was halted. The rest is history. Bad history.
More to the point most here see that the DoD and the senior military officers, (read that as flag officers)
are now quasi politician diplomats and like many hybrids not very good at either required skill and not all interested in their professional skills as military officers. The Marines Corps is currently a case in point, senior management has said screw Title X, we won't comply, when queried on why they have chosen the current course of action we are all told to S1 and S2. Intellectual curiosity a hallmark of Marines from the youngest Marine graduate of recruit training to the oldest sages among us, is openly discouraged. Our Navy is in abysmal condition, so even if we want to get somewhere and or have a MEU on station it is damn near a work of God to get it to happen. When it does happen an important asset runs aground and has to head for port for repairs, thus damaging the offensive and defensive posture of a CVN Task Force in a contentious region. You can't make it up. As Douglas Rape also points out our adversaries around the globe are watching. They see feckless civilian and military "leadership" and are not concerned in the least, and in fact as we have seen emboldened. Ships and men go to rot in port. Politicians and senior military leaders/managers who fail to execute and are allowed to just hang around, are similar. The rot is now pervasive in the puzzle palace, the rot spreads throughout the good ship lollypop like a very bad cold.
One thing is for sure, it cannot continue, what happens when a serious point of inflection is met remains to be seen, but at the moment it doesn't look too good. That said, Marines are still Marines; with the right and best leadership (and there is a lot of it still left in our Corps) things get turned around fast. General Wilson in his day, General Gray and those that followed in their day show just how fast we can turn it around. Now, all we need is the chance, the opening and then exploit that opening. The other sister services green with envy will follow.
Nothing shakes up a bunch of dictators around the globe more than one ARG/MEU sailing over the horizon line, it may not be coming for them, but they know no better friend and no worse foe is on those ships at sea, sharpening stones at work on Kabars to relieve the boredom. Cheer up Marines! Our Birthday is coming, shine that brass and tidy up that blue blouse, awards and decorations to be double checked, there is celebrating to be done. They have been trying to kill us off since that first kegger at Tun Tavern we don't die easy.
1. We do not want to send any MC unit to do HR/DA in Gaza/ Isreal. That is completely out of our league.
2. A MEU/SOC, as good as they are/ were could never have done successfully a HR/DA in Iran for our US hostages.
3. Iran is a terrorist state, Hezbollah is one of the most murderous, yet capable terrorist organization globally. That is an IS fight to include with Iran. The US should pull the current THAAD unit out, as it is now a tgt, and we are now complicit with the attack on a Sovereign nation state. My view only. M2
Credibility is fragile. Two conditions apply. The first is to have the capacity to act. Second is the intent to act.
Over the past 50 years the US has had the capability to act but came up short on intent. That lack of intent is perceived as a lack of resolve, cowardice or organizational confusion. Our adversaries double down on that by their agents and proxies in our country who warn of escalation, unwinnable circumstances, fear of innocent lives lost, compassion and the supposed legitimate complaints of the enemy. We often cave only to provide time to enemies to get stronger, more lethal and more confident.
We have now entered a new stage where our lack of resolve is now matched by our lack of capability. It is not a given that we could win a conflict over Taiwan. With each passing day China grows stronger while we grow weaker. We watched N Korea become a nuclear power. Iran is on the cusp of becoming one. Pakistan became a nuclear power with hardly an objection. We put significant pressure on Ukraine to give up their nuclear weapons with our security assurances and so as not to provoke Russia. We did nothing when Russia grabbed Crimea. We trickled in support to Ukraine — 31 Tanks and insufficient Artillery ammunition. We fled Afghanistan and gave more to the Taliban.
Even in DoD our mindset is defensive and we structured the entire Marine Corps into a coastal defense force with scant offensive capability. Do we think any adversary is concerned about the USMC any more?
The world is a jungle. Most of our adversaries can smell weakness like Hyenas can smell a kill. Cowardly Lions can’t hang on to being the Alphas in the food chain if they do not instill fear and cannot protect their food.
Our adversaries correctly gaged our lack of resolve. Now they are calculating our reduced capabilities and future looks bright for them.
Amen! Semper Fi!
A tragic failed rescue attempt that resulted in US loss of life and equipment... the writer is CORRECT in that a MEU (SOC) could've successfully completed this mission and saved the lives and foreign policy embarrassment, had such been available in 1979... thank YHWH for CMC Gen Gray and his immediate implementation of the MEU (SOC) capabilities beginning in 1987! I was blessed to be a part of that ORIGINAL one... I was with Command Element 26th MEU (SOC) Comm Plt and served as the designated C/E Comm Plt PSC3A Satcom operator for the MSPF in 1989... I served with 26th MEU (SOC) from 1987-90...
Unfortunately, FD2030 has rendered our MAGTF capabilities to respond to the designated missions for such in any "clime and place" around the globe...
Semper Fidelis!
Joel "Big Country" Bowling, SGT USMC 1985-91; CWO2 (ret) NCARNG 1991-2013
It would seem that nothing in foreign policy happens by chance. Rather a set of events that set off a further set of events or a chain reaction. As Douglas Rape so rightly points out weak state craft leads to weak responses which actually lead to larger and generally worse outcomes.
Case in point we are still dealing (abet poorly) with the consequences of the Ayatollah Khomeini returning to Iran. When the gates of the US Embassy were stormed on or around 18-20 February 1979, 2/2 was the air contingency force. The Alpha increment or elements of it were ordered to head to Teheran. Likely to support the MSG there in maintaining a secure post. For whatever reasons President Carter changed his mind and that lead element of Marines made it to Cyprus and was halted. The rest is history. Bad history.
More to the point most here see that the DoD and the senior military officers, (read that as flag officers)
are now quasi politician diplomats and like many hybrids not very good at either required skill and not all interested in their professional skills as military officers. The Marines Corps is currently a case in point, senior management has said screw Title X, we won't comply, when queried on why they have chosen the current course of action we are all told to S1 and S2. Intellectual curiosity a hallmark of Marines from the youngest Marine graduate of recruit training to the oldest sages among us, is openly discouraged. Our Navy is in abysmal condition, so even if we want to get somewhere and or have a MEU on station it is damn near a work of God to get it to happen. When it does happen an important asset runs aground and has to head for port for repairs, thus damaging the offensive and defensive posture of a CVN Task Force in a contentious region. You can't make it up. As Douglas Rape also points out our adversaries around the globe are watching. They see feckless civilian and military "leadership" and are not concerned in the least, and in fact as we have seen emboldened. Ships and men go to rot in port. Politicians and senior military leaders/managers who fail to execute and are allowed to just hang around, are similar. The rot is now pervasive in the puzzle palace, the rot spreads throughout the good ship lollypop like a very bad cold.
One thing is for sure, it cannot continue, what happens when a serious point of inflection is met remains to be seen, but at the moment it doesn't look too good. That said, Marines are still Marines; with the right and best leadership (and there is a lot of it still left in our Corps) things get turned around fast. General Wilson in his day, General Gray and those that followed in their day show just how fast we can turn it around. Now, all we need is the chance, the opening and then exploit that opening. The other sister services green with envy will follow.
Nothing shakes up a bunch of dictators around the globe more than one ARG/MEU sailing over the horizon line, it may not be coming for them, but they know no better friend and no worse foe is on those ships at sea, sharpening stones at work on Kabars to relieve the boredom. Cheer up Marines! Our Birthday is coming, shine that brass and tidy up that blue blouse, awards and decorations to be double checked, there is celebrating to be done. They have been trying to kill us off since that first kegger at Tun Tavern we don't die easy.
I disagree agree here on a few points.
1. We do not want to send any MC unit to do HR/DA in Gaza/ Isreal. That is completely out of our league.
2. A MEU/SOC, as good as they are/ were could never have done successfully a HR/DA in Iran for our US hostages.
3. Iran is a terrorist state, Hezbollah is one of the most murderous, yet capable terrorist organization globally. That is an IS fight to include with Iran. The US should pull the current THAAD unit out, as it is now a tgt, and we are now complicit with the attack on a Sovereign nation state. My view only. M2