Compass Points - Missile BDA
USMC theory badly damaged in attack.
Compass Points - Missile BDA
USMC theory badly damaged in attack.
April 15, 2024
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Iran launched a massive precision munition strike against Israel. While BDA, Battle Damage Assessment, is still underway, it looks like not much was hit inside Israel by the recent air attack. But it may be that something in the US was badly damaged.
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Many news sources including Reuters are reporting on the attack.
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Iran launched explosive drones and fired missiles at Israel late on Saturday in its first direct attack on Israeli territory, a retaliatory strike that raised the threat of a wider regional conflict, as the U.S pledged "ironclad" backing for Israel.
Sirens wailed and Reuters journalists in Israel heard distant heavy thuds and bangs from what local media called aerial interceptions of explosive drones.
. . . Israel's military spokesperson, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, said Iran launched dozens of ground-to-ground missiles at Israel, most of them intercepted outside Israeli borders. They included more than 10 cruise missiles, he said. The Iranian salvo of more than 200 drones and missiles caused light damage to one Israeli military facility, Hagari said.
-- Reuters
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Virtually none of the subsonic missiles and drones hit their targets; they were intercepted and destroyed. Other reports, including from CNN, indicate that United States naval vessels and fighter jets helped to repel the unprecedented barrage.
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Almost all the ballistic missiles and drones Iran launched at Israel in an unprecedented attack late Saturday were intercepted and failed to meet their mark, according to Israeli and American officials, highlighting the formidable, and multi-layered missile defense deployed by the two allied partners.
Most of the more than 300 Iranian munitions, the majority of which are believed to have been launched from inside of Iran’s territory during a five-hour attack, were intercepted before they got to Israel, more than 1,100 miles (1,770 kilometers) from their launch points.
Israel’s military said Sunday that “99%” of projectiles fired by Iran were intercepted by Israel and its partners, with only “a small number” of ballistic missiles reaching Israel.
In total, around 170 drones, more than 30 cruise missiles and more than 120 ballistic missiles were launched at Israel by Iran overnight Saturday, the military said.
. . . US officials said more than 70 drones and three ballistic missiles were intercepted by US Navy ships and military aircraft, without giving details of exactly what defenses were used to bring down the projectiles.
-- CNN
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In the aftermath of the massive attack, it may be that nearly the only thing badly damaged in the attack on Israel was the US Marine Corps' aging Force Design. When it began back in the summer of 2019, Force Design 2030 was presented as a leap ahead strategy. As the years have gone by, however, Force Design 2030 now seems less of a leap ahead and more of a costly detour. Even its most ardent supporters are conceding changes need to be made. The once new "Force Design 2030" has been renamed simply "Force Design." At least one key aviation unit, HMLA-269, that was eliminated by Force Design 2030 will be brought back this summer. More changes are being studied.
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If it hit nothing else, Iran’s air attack on Israel hit the very foundation of Force Design. The original theory of Force Design was that the threat of China's precision munitions made it impossible for US Navy ships to venture in the waters off China. If US Navy ships were unable to remain on patrol inside the so-called WEZ, Weapons Engagement Zone, one solution was for the Marines to withdraw from offense and take up positions on defense on isolated Pacific islands. These small units of missile Marines would sit and wait for passing Chinese ships.
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But the air attack by Iran on Israel shows that even actual attacks by precision munitions do not make it impossible for Navy ships to continue their patrols. US Navy ships in the Red Sea are routinely destroying attacks from precision munitions.
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The new precision munition weapons do not make it impossible for Navy ships to continue to patrol. Precision munitions are powerful new weapons, but world events are showing it is unnecessary for the Navy to retreat or the Marine Corps to divide itself into small, defensive, missile units. The better question for the Marine Corps is, how can the fully capable, forward deployed, Marine Air Ground Task Force best incorporate missile and drone technology? One recent article in Real Clear Defense authoritatively addresses the issue of missiles and the Marine Corps.
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In his March 28, 2023 statement before the Senate Appropriations Committee, the Commandant of the Marine Corps asked Congress for 14 medium-range missile batteries and 774 subsonic Naval Strike Missiles (NSM), with an unclassified range of about 115 nautical miles. The Commandant also asked Congress for three long-range missile batteries and 153 subsonic Tomahawk (Land Attack and Maritime Strike) missiles, with an unclassified range of approximately 1000 nautical miles. Only 4 of the 17 batteries will be permanently forward deployed in the Pacific. The remaining 13 batteries will be based in the continental United States to support rotational deployments and other missions.
As stated previously, the Marines need a balanced force, which includes some missiles that are best suited for the Corps’ global response mission and to protect against the threat posed by enemy long-range precision strike weapons. Moreover, long-range air and land (and soon, maritime) attack missiles are already in Army, Navy, and Air Force arsenals. Each of these services have developed highly sophisticated and comprehensive operating concepts employing state of the art warfighting platforms that operate globally. For example, just one of the Navy’s four Ohio-class SSGN submarines carries 154 Tomahawk missiles.
And these services are upgrading their current missile force and buying more. The Marine Corps cannot and should not try to compete with them in this realm.
-- Real Clear Defense
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The successful defense against Iran's massive air attack on Israel at the very least raises hard questions about the foundations of the US Marine Corps’ aging Force Design. Clearly even massive attacks with missiles and drones can be countered by Navy ships and Air Force fighters as well as defensive systems like Israel's Iron Dome. If military forces can defend themselves against precision missiles and drones, that means there is no need for the US Navy to withdraw from the Pacific, nor any need for Marines to withdraw from global, offensive, crisis response and sit on defense along a Pacific Maginot line.
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Some changes have been made with Force Design and more changes are needed. There seems to be some encouraging language in the Commandant's frag order, O1-2024. There are also several required reports coming on the fundamental flaws of Force Design. The most recent National Defense Authorization Act, (NDAA) requires a comprehensive review of what Force Design has done to Marine Corps capabilities. NDAA sections 1066 and 1076 require three types of reports. Section 1066 requires the Marine Corps to provide a written report to Congress about Force Design. Then it is required that the full written report is briefed in person to Congress. Apparently, both the Congressionally mandated report and brief are now overdue. There has been no announcement by Congress either that it has received the Marine Corps report or scheduled the Marine Corps brief.
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Additionally, in NDAA section 1076, the Congress mandates an independent review of Force Design by an FFRDC - Federally Funded Research and Development Center. FFRDCs are scientific, public-private partnerships that conduct research and development for the federal government. If it has not done so, it is time for the Marine Corps to complete their overdue Force Design report and then brief it to Congress. It is also time for the Marine Corps to cooperate fully with the investigation by the designated FFRDC. The selected FFRDC must be given the freedom to prepare a full and fair evaluation of Force Design. There is no need for further obfuscation or delay. Answers are needed now.
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Compass Points salutes Israeli and American military units for their skilled defense against Iran's massive air attack. Even if BDA indicates that not much was damaged inside Israel, still, one thing was badly damaged in the attack: the foundations of Force Design. Compass Points salutes all those in Congress and across the broad Marine community who are insisting that the hard questions about Marine Corps capabilities get answered now. Hard questions and no-nonsense answers will help the Marine Corps continue to be strong today and stronger tomorrow.
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Reuters - 04/14/2024
Iran launches retaliatory attack on Israel with hundreds of drones, missiles
By Dan Williams and Parisa Hafezi
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CNN - 04/14/2024
How Israel and allied defenses intercepted more than 300 Iranian missiles and drones
Analysis by Brad Lendon, CNN
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Real Clear Defense - 03/14/2024
Duplication and Obsolescence: The Marine Corps’ Missile Dilemma
By James Conway & Jerry McAbee
General Conway (USMC, ret.) is a career infantry officer. His last assignment was the 34th Commandant of the Marine Corps.
Brigadier General McAbee (USMC, ret.) is a career artillery officer. His last assignment was Deputy Commander, United States Marine Corps Forces Pacific, and Deputy Commander, United States Marine Corps Forces Central.
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PUBLIC LAW 118–31—DEC. 22, 2023
NATIONAL DEFENSE AUTHORIZATION ACT FOR FISCAL YEAR 2024
https://www.congress.gov/118/plaws/publ31/PLAW-118publ31.pdf
The primary lesson being learned from the U.S. Navy's Red Sea operations and Iran's recent attack on Israel is that subsonic drones and cruise missiles and supersonic ballistic missiles can be easily acquired and destroyed before reaching their target. The jury is still out on hypersonic weapons, which is why the U.S. Navy, Army, and Air Force are aggressively pursuing them. Only the Marine Corps is content to stay with subsonic NSMs and TLAMs. If the Marines are serious about sinking PLAN warships, the Commandant should pivot from subsonic missiles (and even supersonic missiles) and invest in hypersonic weapons.
A secondary lesson being RELEARNED is that for every new capability a counter capability can be developed and fielded. The assumption that long range precision weapons have rendered offensive operations obsolete is neither based on history nor unfolding events in the Middle East. Long range missiles (even hypersonic) cannot remain immune from the genius of research and development.
Cognitive Behaviors II
In many ways, the Services, as force providers, can be seen as investment portfolio managers. Peter Lynch was one of the best. He observed:
"There's no shame in losing money on a stock. Everybody does it. What is shameful is to hold on to a stock, or worse, to buy more of it when the fundamentals are deteriorating."