The primary lesson being learned from the U.S. Navy's Red Sea operations and Iran's recent attack on Israel is that subsonic drones and cruise missiles and supersonic ballistic missiles can be easily acquired and destroyed before reaching their target. The jury is still out on hypersonic weapons, which is why the U.S. Navy, Army, and Air Force are aggressively pursuing them. Only the Marine Corps is content to stay with subsonic NSMs and TLAMs. If the Marines are serious about sinking PLAN warships, the Commandant should pivot from subsonic missiles (and even supersonic missiles) and invest in hypersonic weapons.
A secondary lesson being RELEARNED is that for every new capability a counter capability can be developed and fielded. The assumption that long range precision weapons have rendered offensive operations obsolete is neither based on history nor unfolding events in the Middle East. Long range missiles (even hypersonic) cannot remain immune from the genius of research and development.
In many ways, the Services, as force providers, can be seen as investment portfolio managers. Peter Lynch was one of the best. He observed:
"There's no shame in losing money on a stock. Everybody does it. What is shameful is to hold on to a stock, or worse, to buy more of it when the fundamentals are deteriorating."
An important book "The Logic of Failure: Recognizing and Avoiding Error in Complex Situations" by Dietrich Dorner (German scientist: General and Theoretical Psychology/Recipient of Leibniz Prize (highest honor awarded in German research) presents research results of individuals granted full power over complex systems.
Key finding: When their "brilliant" plan started going awry, many intelligent test subjects were unable to stop, re-assess (re-orient), and make a new plan. Rather, they "doubled down" on the original plan and literally drove the system they intended to improve to complete destruction.
Developing constructive interventions in complex matters is tough. But, certain disciplines/processes and team mates can help manage innate human cognitive behaviors. From the outside, it appears that General Berger failed to develop/use time-tested disciplines (combat development process!). Worse, as the issues with FD2030 started becoming apparent, he chose ignore or demean those who were striving to help. And, of course, like so many in Dorner's book, he chose to accelerate interventions, destroying many combat-proven capabilities, and worse, much Marine ethos and culture.
The challenge for the current Commandant: Does he have what it takes to stop, re-assess/re-orient, and adapt to a highly dynamic world, or will he (and his team mates) continue to be captured by the "logic of failure" and add yet another case study of destroying the very organization they intended to improve.
Let’s keep it simple. FD 2030 was based on believing Chinese missiles could sink anything in the S China Sea. At the time I asked: Can anyone show me a Chinese Hypersonic missile hitting a moving ship? There was silence. FD-2030 countered by claiming subsonic missiles fired from fixed positions could sink Chinese ships. The last few days seem to reveal that ships are perfectly capable of defending themselves.
So, the FD-2030 coastal defense rocketry mission appears to be DOA. Of course the castrated MC can’t prevail on the Ukrainian battlefield either. Can’t seem to keep a MEU on station. So what exactly can the USMC do that this point. The threats were exaggerated, the capabilities exaggerated and reality was dismissed. Irrelevant seems more germane every day….
It would be very wise for the Marine Corps leadership to do a full stop on FD and retool the Marine Corps back to its original force makeup. We don’t need Marines to do what Naval, Army and Air Forces are capable of doing. Watching what unfolded this weekend in Middle East ought to be a wake up call to the Corps leadership. Let’s retool before it’s too late.
Yep, General Berger guessed wrong and definitely took the wrong approach trading combat power for experimentation. His decision to trade tube artillery to develop HIMARS anti-ship missiles was a mistake. This effort is still in development along with the Marine Lattorial Regiment (MLR). In actuality he tried to copy the CCP Area Denial strategy of placing missiles on islands in the South China Sea. Definitely not forward thinking. If you believe the news reports the Iranians fired 300-500 missiles and drones at Israel last Saturday. The Iron Dome performance, based on the enhanced Patriot Missile System, was outstanding. In addition, two US Air Force Squadrons, shot down at least 70 of the drones (and missiles?). https://www.airandspaceforces.com/usaf-fighters-shoot-down-iranian-drones-in-defense-of-israel/ For months, Arleigh-Burk Destroyers have been knocking down drones and missiles over the Red Sea. Where was the MLR? Experimenting with the development of anti-ship missile HIMARS and hiding them on Pacific Islands. Where the Commandant should of focused was supporting the Combatant Commanders with amphibious shipping (i.e. Marine amphibious MEU/MAGTFs). The US Navy can't figure out how to build and maintain their amphibious ships ON SCHEDULE. When questioned about this issue, the SECNAV and the new Commandant replies; we will do a study. IMHO that is a political equivocation and not a solution. Now the "new" Commandant issues a FRAG-O stating: "The “primacy of the MEF” is an established concept. From the MEF, flowed amphibious brigades, MPF brigades, MEUs, SPMAGTFs, JTFs, and any other task-organized forces designed to meet mission needs. Each of these were extensions of the larger force and were viewed as “forward elements” of the MEF. This concept was built on several pillars...". After four years of criticism from highly regarded and proven Marine General Officers (Ret.), James Webb and other Retired Marines the new Commandant issues not a FRAG-O but a political retreat Order. Semper Fi
The results of Iranian and Houthi missile attacks do not bode well for FD. It's time for the Marine Corps to do what it does best and no other military force does: combined arms naval expeditionary warfare. This is America's 911 Force. It is interesting that in the Commandant's FRAG, he doubled down on FD and yet said we would still be an expeditionary force. Alfred Karam is correct in saying let the Army, Air Force, and Navy do missile work. Only the Marine Corps does what it does.
This is 3 years old ….does anyone know the current status? “Maritime Prepositioning Ships - T-AK, T-AKR and T-AOT
Last updated: 13 Oct 2021
Description
The Navy's 14 Maritime Prepositioning Ships (MPS) are part of Military Sealift Command's Prepositioning Program. These ships preposition U.S. Marine Corps vehicles, equipment and ammunition throughout the world.
Features
The MPS are assigned to three Maritime Prepositioning Ship squadrons located in the Mediterranean, the Indian Ocean at Diego Garcia and the Western Pacific at Guam and Saipan. The MPS ships in each squadron have sufficient equipment, supplies and ammunition to support a Marine Expeditionary Brigade of about 17,000 personnel for 30 days. The MPS ships are self-sustaining, having cranes which enable them to unload their own cargo. Beginning in 2000 with the delivery of USNS 1st Lt. Harry L. Martin, three additional ships were added to the Maritime Prepositioning Force, adding the capacity to carry expeditionary airfields, Seabee construction equipment and field hospital cargo.
Background
The Sgt. Matej Kocak-class was converted before entering service with MSC. The ships gained 157 feet amidships and a helicopter landing platform after conversion. These ships, delivered to MSC in the mid-1980s, are National Steel and Shipbuilding, San Diego, conversion ships owned and operated by Waterman Steamship Corp.
USNS 2nd Lt. John P. Bobo-class ships are new construction ships delivered to MSC in the mid-1980s from General Dynamics, Quincy, Mass. In January 2006, MSC purchased MV 1st Lt. Jack Lummus, MV 1st Lt. Baldomero Lopez and MV Pfc. Dewayne T. Williams. MV 2nd Lt. John P. Bobo was purchased in January 2007. SS Sgt. Matej Kocak, SS Maj. Stephen W. Pless and MC Sgt. William R. Button were purchased in January 2009.
USNS 1st Lt. Harry L. Martin was modified in 1999 and delivered to MSC in 2000.
USNS Gunnery Sgt. Fred W. Stockham (ex-Soderman) was modified in 2000 and delivered to MSC in 2001.
USNS Lance Cpl. Roy M. Wheat began modifications in 1999, including a 118-foot mid-body insertion plug and was delivered to MSC in 2003.
USNS Dahl, a large, medium, speed, roll-on/roll-off ship, moved into the Maritime Prepositioning Ships fleet April 1, 2009, from another part of the Prepositioning Program.
Government-owned tanker USNS Lawrence H. Gianella began serving the Prepositioning Program July 1, 2009. It was formerly in Military Sealift Command's Sealift Program.
I doubt that this will occur on schedule. I understand that the IDF has already opened several supply points in the N and that those inhabitants of Gaza are moving N which should leave the residual Hamas elements vulnerable to a IDF Combined Arms operation in the S.
Shifting to logistics. Our Broken Biden Navy, which will miss its recruiting goals by 6700, can not deliver supplies, parts or personnel. Navy Transport With Equipment, Personnel for Gaza Pier Back Home After Engine Fire
HEATHER MONGILIO
APRIL 17, 2024 5:37 PM
Pentagon Press Secretary U.S. Air Force Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder conducts a press briefing at the Pentagon, Washington, D.C., March 8, 2024. Department of Defense PhotoS
A Navy ship on its way to Gaza with parts for the temporary pier returned home after experiencing a fire, the Navy said Wednesday.
USNS 2nd Lt. John P. Bobo (T-AK-3008) experienced a fire in its engine room on Thursday, April 11, while it was on its way to the Eastern Mediterranean Sea with equipment and personnel for the humanitarian efforts planned via a temporary pier in Gaza, a Navy spokesperson said in a statement to USNI News.
The crew extinguished the fire, and no injuries were reported. The ship returned to Jacksonville, Fla., on Wednesday for an assessment. The fire is under investigation, according to the statement.
Bobo is one of three transport ships that left for the Mediterranean starting in March as part of the Army-led Joint Logistics Over-the-Shore mission to create a temporary pier to allow more humanitarian aid into Gaza, which Israel has largely closed off since the Hamas attacks on Oct. 7.
Military Sealift Command ships Bobo and USNS 1st Lt. Baldomero Lopez (T-AK-3010) departed earlier this month with Army and Navy personnel and equipment that can build the roll-on, roll-off discharge facility. The U.S. sent ready Maritime Administration ready reserve ship MV Roy P. Benavidez (T-AKR-306) with Army pier infrastructure last month.
The Navy statement did not indicate if there would be a delay to the floating pier as a result of Bobo’s delay. A defense official told USNI News the Navy was assessing how quickly it could repair Bobo and if it would need another ship to transport the Navy gear.
As of Tuesday, the pier is expected to be operational in late April, early May, Pentagon spokesman Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder told reporters. Components of the pier are expected to be assembled in the next two to three weeks, he said.
The date of initial operating capacity seems to have shifted with the Department of Defense saying mid-April at first and now late April or early May. Ryder denied a shift when pressed.
“What we said when we announced it was that it would be operational within 60 days, and we’re still on track for that,” he said during the Tuesday news conference.
The primary lesson being learned from the U.S. Navy's Red Sea operations and Iran's recent attack on Israel is that subsonic drones and cruise missiles and supersonic ballistic missiles can be easily acquired and destroyed before reaching their target. The jury is still out on hypersonic weapons, which is why the U.S. Navy, Army, and Air Force are aggressively pursuing them. Only the Marine Corps is content to stay with subsonic NSMs and TLAMs. If the Marines are serious about sinking PLAN warships, the Commandant should pivot from subsonic missiles (and even supersonic missiles) and invest in hypersonic weapons.
A secondary lesson being RELEARNED is that for every new capability a counter capability can be developed and fielded. The assumption that long range precision weapons have rendered offensive operations obsolete is neither based on history nor unfolding events in the Middle East. Long range missiles (even hypersonic) cannot remain immune from the genius of research and development.
Cognitive Behaviors II
In many ways, the Services, as force providers, can be seen as investment portfolio managers. Peter Lynch was one of the best. He observed:
"There's no shame in losing money on a stock. Everybody does it. What is shameful is to hold on to a stock, or worse, to buy more of it when the fundamentals are deteriorating."
Key issue: Cognitive Behaviors.
An important book "The Logic of Failure: Recognizing and Avoiding Error in Complex Situations" by Dietrich Dorner (German scientist: General and Theoretical Psychology/Recipient of Leibniz Prize (highest honor awarded in German research) presents research results of individuals granted full power over complex systems.
Key finding: When their "brilliant" plan started going awry, many intelligent test subjects were unable to stop, re-assess (re-orient), and make a new plan. Rather, they "doubled down" on the original plan and literally drove the system they intended to improve to complete destruction.
Developing constructive interventions in complex matters is tough. But, certain disciplines/processes and team mates can help manage innate human cognitive behaviors. From the outside, it appears that General Berger failed to develop/use time-tested disciplines (combat development process!). Worse, as the issues with FD2030 started becoming apparent, he chose ignore or demean those who were striving to help. And, of course, like so many in Dorner's book, he chose to accelerate interventions, destroying many combat-proven capabilities, and worse, much Marine ethos and culture.
The challenge for the current Commandant: Does he have what it takes to stop, re-assess/re-orient, and adapt to a highly dynamic world, or will he (and his team mates) continue to be captured by the "logic of failure" and add yet another case study of destroying the very organization they intended to improve.
Let’s keep it simple. FD 2030 was based on believing Chinese missiles could sink anything in the S China Sea. At the time I asked: Can anyone show me a Chinese Hypersonic missile hitting a moving ship? There was silence. FD-2030 countered by claiming subsonic missiles fired from fixed positions could sink Chinese ships. The last few days seem to reveal that ships are perfectly capable of defending themselves.
So, the FD-2030 coastal defense rocketry mission appears to be DOA. Of course the castrated MC can’t prevail on the Ukrainian battlefield either. Can’t seem to keep a MEU on station. So what exactly can the USMC do that this point. The threats were exaggerated, the capabilities exaggerated and reality was dismissed. Irrelevant seems more germane every day….
It would be very wise for the Marine Corps leadership to do a full stop on FD and retool the Marine Corps back to its original force makeup. We don’t need Marines to do what Naval, Army and Air Forces are capable of doing. Watching what unfolded this weekend in Middle East ought to be a wake up call to the Corps leadership. Let’s retool before it’s too late.
Watching the other services act on their core competencies isn't the key red flag.
The key red flags will be the sister services' and Socom continuing to respond to the Cocoms on what were previously the USMC's core competencies.
Yep, General Berger guessed wrong and definitely took the wrong approach trading combat power for experimentation. His decision to trade tube artillery to develop HIMARS anti-ship missiles was a mistake. This effort is still in development along with the Marine Lattorial Regiment (MLR). In actuality he tried to copy the CCP Area Denial strategy of placing missiles on islands in the South China Sea. Definitely not forward thinking. If you believe the news reports the Iranians fired 300-500 missiles and drones at Israel last Saturday. The Iron Dome performance, based on the enhanced Patriot Missile System, was outstanding. In addition, two US Air Force Squadrons, shot down at least 70 of the drones (and missiles?). https://www.airandspaceforces.com/usaf-fighters-shoot-down-iranian-drones-in-defense-of-israel/ For months, Arleigh-Burk Destroyers have been knocking down drones and missiles over the Red Sea. Where was the MLR? Experimenting with the development of anti-ship missile HIMARS and hiding them on Pacific Islands. Where the Commandant should of focused was supporting the Combatant Commanders with amphibious shipping (i.e. Marine amphibious MEU/MAGTFs). The US Navy can't figure out how to build and maintain their amphibious ships ON SCHEDULE. When questioned about this issue, the SECNAV and the new Commandant replies; we will do a study. IMHO that is a political equivocation and not a solution. Now the "new" Commandant issues a FRAG-O stating: "The “primacy of the MEF” is an established concept. From the MEF, flowed amphibious brigades, MPF brigades, MEUs, SPMAGTFs, JTFs, and any other task-organized forces designed to meet mission needs. Each of these were extensions of the larger force and were viewed as “forward elements” of the MEF. This concept was built on several pillars...". After four years of criticism from highly regarded and proven Marine General Officers (Ret.), James Webb and other Retired Marines the new Commandant issues not a FRAG-O but a political retreat Order. Semper Fi
The results of Iranian and Houthi missile attacks do not bode well for FD. It's time for the Marine Corps to do what it does best and no other military force does: combined arms naval expeditionary warfare. This is America's 911 Force. It is interesting that in the Commandant's FRAG, he doubled down on FD and yet said we would still be an expeditionary force. Alfred Karam is correct in saying let the Army, Air Force, and Navy do missile work. Only the Marine Corps does what it does.
This is 3 years old ….does anyone know the current status? “Maritime Prepositioning Ships - T-AK, T-AKR and T-AOT
Last updated: 13 Oct 2021
Description
The Navy's 14 Maritime Prepositioning Ships (MPS) are part of Military Sealift Command's Prepositioning Program. These ships preposition U.S. Marine Corps vehicles, equipment and ammunition throughout the world.
Features
The MPS are assigned to three Maritime Prepositioning Ship squadrons located in the Mediterranean, the Indian Ocean at Diego Garcia and the Western Pacific at Guam and Saipan. The MPS ships in each squadron have sufficient equipment, supplies and ammunition to support a Marine Expeditionary Brigade of about 17,000 personnel for 30 days. The MPS ships are self-sustaining, having cranes which enable them to unload their own cargo. Beginning in 2000 with the delivery of USNS 1st Lt. Harry L. Martin, three additional ships were added to the Maritime Prepositioning Force, adding the capacity to carry expeditionary airfields, Seabee construction equipment and field hospital cargo.
Background
The Sgt. Matej Kocak-class was converted before entering service with MSC. The ships gained 157 feet amidships and a helicopter landing platform after conversion. These ships, delivered to MSC in the mid-1980s, are National Steel and Shipbuilding, San Diego, conversion ships owned and operated by Waterman Steamship Corp.
USNS 2nd Lt. John P. Bobo-class ships are new construction ships delivered to MSC in the mid-1980s from General Dynamics, Quincy, Mass. In January 2006, MSC purchased MV 1st Lt. Jack Lummus, MV 1st Lt. Baldomero Lopez and MV Pfc. Dewayne T. Williams. MV 2nd Lt. John P. Bobo was purchased in January 2007. SS Sgt. Matej Kocak, SS Maj. Stephen W. Pless and MC Sgt. William R. Button were purchased in January 2009.
USNS 1st Lt. Harry L. Martin was modified in 1999 and delivered to MSC in 2000.
USNS Gunnery Sgt. Fred W. Stockham (ex-Soderman) was modified in 2000 and delivered to MSC in 2001.
USNS Lance Cpl. Roy M. Wheat began modifications in 1999, including a 118-foot mid-body insertion plug and was delivered to MSC in 2003.
USNS Dahl, a large, medium, speed, roll-on/roll-off ship, moved into the Maritime Prepositioning Ships fleet April 1, 2009, from another part of the Prepositioning Program.
Government-owned tanker USNS Lawrence H. Gianella began serving the Prepositioning Program July 1, 2009. It was formerly in Military Sealift Command's Sealift Program.
General Characteristics, Sgt. Matej Kocak Class
Builder: Pennsylvania SB Company, Chester, Pennsylvania
Propulsion: Two boilers; two GE turbines; 30,000 horsepower; 1 shaft
Length: 821 feet (250.41 meters)
Beam: 105.6 feet (32.21 meters)
Displacement: 48,754 tons(49,534.06 metric tons) full load
Speed: 20 knots (23.02 mph)
Crew: 34 civilians, 10 technicians
Load: Containers, 532; ro-ro, 152,236 SF; JP-5 bbls, 20,290; DF-2 bbls, 12,355; Mogas bbls, 3,717; stable water, 2,189; cranes, 2 twin 50 ton and 1-30 ton gantry
Aircraft: Helicopter platform only
Homeport: No homeport assigned
Ships:
USNS Sgt. Matej Kocak (T-AK 3005), formerly the SS John B. Waterman
SS PFC Eugene A. Obregon (T-AK 3006), formerly the SS Thomas Heywood
USNS Maj. Stephen W. Pless (T-AK 3007), formerly the SS Charles Carroll
General Characteristics, 2nd Lt. John P. Bobo Class
Builder: General Dynamics, Quincy
Propulsion: 2 Stork-Wartsilia Werkspoor 16TM410 diesels; 27,000 horsepower sustained; 1 shaft, bow thruster; 1,000 horsepower
Length: 675.2 feet (205.94 meters)
Beam: 105.5 feet (32.18 meters)
Displacement: 44,330 tons (45,039.28 metric tons) full load
Speed: 18 knots (20.71 mph)
Crew: 38 civilians, 10 technicians
Load: Containers, 530; ro-ro, 152,185 SF; JP-5 bbles, 20,776; DF-2 bbls, 13,334; Mogas bbls, 4,880; stable water, 2,357; cranes, one single and two twin 39 ton
Aircraft: Helicopter platform only
Homeport: No homeport assigned
Ships:
USNS 2nd Lt. John P. Bobo (T-AK 3008)
USNS PFC Dewayne T. Williams (T-AK 3009)
USNS 1st Lt. Baldomero Lopez (T-AK 3010)
USNS 1st Lt. Jack Lummus (T-AK 3011)
USNS Sgt. William R. Button (T-AK 3012)….”
I doubt that this will occur on schedule. I understand that the IDF has already opened several supply points in the N and that those inhabitants of Gaza are moving N which should leave the residual Hamas elements vulnerable to a IDF Combined Arms operation in the S.
Shifting to logistics. Our Broken Biden Navy, which will miss its recruiting goals by 6700, can not deliver supplies, parts or personnel. Navy Transport With Equipment, Personnel for Gaza Pier Back Home After Engine Fire
HEATHER MONGILIO
APRIL 17, 2024 5:37 PM
Pentagon Press Secretary U.S. Air Force Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder conducts a press briefing at the Pentagon, Washington, D.C., March 8, 2024. Department of Defense PhotoS
A Navy ship on its way to Gaza with parts for the temporary pier returned home after experiencing a fire, the Navy said Wednesday.
USNS 2nd Lt. John P. Bobo (T-AK-3008) experienced a fire in its engine room on Thursday, April 11, while it was on its way to the Eastern Mediterranean Sea with equipment and personnel for the humanitarian efforts planned via a temporary pier in Gaza, a Navy spokesperson said in a statement to USNI News.
The crew extinguished the fire, and no injuries were reported. The ship returned to Jacksonville, Fla., on Wednesday for an assessment. The fire is under investigation, according to the statement.
Bobo is one of three transport ships that left for the Mediterranean starting in March as part of the Army-led Joint Logistics Over-the-Shore mission to create a temporary pier to allow more humanitarian aid into Gaza, which Israel has largely closed off since the Hamas attacks on Oct. 7.
Military Sealift Command ships Bobo and USNS 1st Lt. Baldomero Lopez (T-AK-3010) departed earlier this month with Army and Navy personnel and equipment that can build the roll-on, roll-off discharge facility. The U.S. sent ready Maritime Administration ready reserve ship MV Roy P. Benavidez (T-AKR-306) with Army pier infrastructure last month.
The Navy statement did not indicate if there would be a delay to the floating pier as a result of Bobo’s delay. A defense official told USNI News the Navy was assessing how quickly it could repair Bobo and if it would need another ship to transport the Navy gear.
As of Tuesday, the pier is expected to be operational in late April, early May, Pentagon spokesman Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder told reporters. Components of the pier are expected to be assembled in the next two to three weeks, he said.
The date of initial operating capacity seems to have shifted with the Department of Defense saying mid-April at first and now late April or early May. Ryder denied a shift when pressed.
“What we said when we announced it was that it would be operational within 60 days, and we’re still on track for that,” he said during the Tuesday news conference.