Compass Points - Missile Mistake

The threat of precision munitions

Compass Points - Missile Mistake

The threat of precision munitions

October 4, 2024

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Perhaps it was all a missile mistake. Perhaps when Iran this week fired 181 ballistic missiles into Israel, Iran made a big mistake, a missile mistake. Iran's most recent direct missile attack on Israel gives Israel a reason to respond with a devastating strike of their own. Israel may destroy Iran's oil and gas infrastructure, or command and control facilities, or Iran's nuclear facilities. Or Israel may destroy all three and even more.

Only time will tell how Israel responds to Iran's missile mistake.

In a much different way, over the last several years, the US Marine Corps has become sidetracked by its own missile mistake. The Marine Corps did not fire 181 ballistic missiles. It was not that kind of mistake. But beginning back in 2019, the Marine Corps over-reacted to the proliferation of advanced missile technologies. Some Marine Corps leaders came to the conclusion that missiles would soon be so powerful that traditional offensive operations would no longer be possible. The Marine Corps concluded that missiles and other precision munitions would force the Marine Corps to turn from offense to defense, from a global combined arms force, to small, defensive regional units on Pacific islands.

Beginning with the Commandant’s Planning Guidance of 2019, Marine Corps senior leaders asserted that because of advanced missiles, Navy ships and Marine MAGTFs could no longer survive within a hostile enemy's missile range, often called the WEZ, weapons engagement zone. Since traditional forces could no longer survive within missile range, the Marine Corps needed to send small, rudimentary "stand-in forces" onto Pacific islands to sit and wait.

The Commandant’s Planning Guidance of 2019, expressed a fear of long range precision weapons.

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. . .  enemy long-range precision fires threaten maneuver by traditional large-signature naval platforms.

. . . stand-in force capability to persist inside an adversary’s weapon systems threat range . . .

. . . our forces currently forward deployed lack the requisite capabilities to deter our adversaries and persist in a contested space to facilitate sea denial.  

— 2019 Commandant's Planning Guidance, pp 2-3

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If it were true, that the proliferation of missiles makes it impossible for Navy ships and Marine MAGTFs to "persist in a contested space" and if it were true that long range fires "threaten maneuver by traditional large-signature naval platforms," no wonder some senior Marine leaders thought it best to get off ships and get onto islands.

Some Marine leaders became convinced that long range missiles made it impossible for Navy ships and Marine MAGTFs to maneuver, to conduct offensive operations, or even to survive within the range of enemy missiles. The thinking of these leaders was that missiles make traditional military operations impossible and thus everything must change. Marine Corps operations must be completely upended. Is there any sense in this thinking? There might be some sense in all this except for one small detail. None of it is true. World events have proven it to be false. It is nothing but a Marine Corps missile mistake.

What do world events show about the claim that, a military force cannot maneuver or operate inside the range of enemy missiles? Over the last 12 months, the nation of Israel, entirely within the WEZ of several hostile nations, has been fired upon by tens of thousands of rockets, mortars, drones, missiles, ballistic missiles, and hypersonic ballistic missiles. Just this week, Iran fired 181 ballistic missiles at Israel.

Through it all, the Israeli Defense Forces continue to maneuver, conduct offensive operations, and survive. Israel has not withdrawn from offensive operations. Israel is conducting offensive operations on four fronts. Israel has been conducting combined arms, ground combat operations in Gaza for a year. Israel has started new combined arms, ground combat operations in Lebanon. Recently Israel used manned aircraft to conduct a long-distance offensive air strike against Houthi forces and facilities in Yemen.

In addition, during the last 12 months, the crews of US Navy ships in the region have helped defend both their own ships and the state of Israel by routinely destroying incoming precision munitions.

World events have shown and are showing every day that missiles and other precision munitions DO NOT make large offensive operations on land and at sea impossible. Missiles are simply one of many threats that US air, ground, and sea forces must prepare for.

The foundation of the Marine Corps' island stand-in units is the mis-guided theory that precision munitions make it impossible to do anything but hunker down on defense. Despite the overheated claims of island force advocates, it is clear that neither the Israeli military nor US Navy ships in the Middle East are paralyzed by rockets, drones, or missiles

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US Navy ships operating in the Red Sea shot down a number of Houthi missiles and drones on Friday. A Pentagon spokesperson described the incident as a "complex attack."

-- Business Insider

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For every new technology, scientists and engineers, rapidly develop counter technologies. New technologies to counter rockets, drones, and missiles are in use today and even more advanced counters are being developed for use tomorrow.

In 2024 Iran made a big missile mistake when it directly fired ballistic missiles at Israel. Iran will pay for their mistake.

In a very different way, starting back in 2019 the Marine Corps made a big missile mistake of its own. Back in 2019, some senior Marine leaders convinced themselves that new missiles made it impossible for Navy ships and Marine MAGTFs to operate successfully on the modern battlefield. These leaders feared that advances in missiles and other precision munitions forced the Marine Corps to turn from offense to defense, from a global combined arms force, to small, defensive regional units on Pacific islands.

Marine leaders need to put aside their paralyzing fear of missiles and get back to work making Marine Corps combined arms, crisis response more advanced, more flexible, and more powerful than ever. Missiles are just another threat on the battlefield. Missiles are dangerous and missiles are here to stay. The good news is the global, flexible, expandable, combined arms MAGTF is also dangerous and also here to stay.

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Business Insider - 09/27/2024

US Navy warships fought off a 'complex' missile and drone attack in the Red Sea

By Jake Epstein

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-warships-fought-complex-missile-drone-attack-red-sea-2024-9?op=1