Compass Points - Murphy's Last Stand
The unwanted future.
Compass Points - Murphy's Last Stand
The unwanted future.
September 14, 2025
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Sunday is a good day for reflection.
This Sunday is a good day to reflect on the challenges of the future. Marines take on hard challenges around the globe. That is what the Marine Corps has always done to serve the Nation. Hard challenges are not a surprise to Marines. Hard challenges are expected. The Marine Corps has always been a magnet for those seeking challenge. While most people avoid the challenge, Marines embrace it.
The sacred service of Marines, the willingness of Marines to risk all, however, must never be wasted, never squandered, never sacrificed due to poor planning or misguided leadership.
All the Nation ever needs do is to point Marines at the crisis and Marines will fight their way in and fight their way out. With the right tools and the right leadership, Marines can accomplish anything.
Author and Marine, Gary Anderson, in his creative story, "Murphy's Last Stand" asks whether Marines today have the tools and the leadership they need.
Over the last week, Compass Points readers have generated online and off a cornucopia of comments, insights, and analysis. Compass Points appreciates all readers who in their own ways are continuing to build the discussion about a stronger Marine Corps, and particularly thanks Gary Anderson and all our readers who served as seminar leaders this week by providing topics, articles, and comments. Many thanks!
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Murphy's Last Stand
By Gary Anderson
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Dear Mom and Dad,
I'm sitting in class at the Basic School. It is 1300, the death hour for instructors. As you know Dad, the Lieutenants tend to fall asleep after lunch and wake up with the instructor standing over them yelling, "if you can't stay awake Lieutenant, get up and stand in back."
Today's class is on the Navy letter format, you know, "From, To, Subj." I think I can safely take a moment and write to you. The class is really boring though and it has been a long week. This room is so stuffy. The instructor is talking about how to write a good subject line. If I could only get some sleep.
I haven't been sleeping very well. Every time I fall asleep, I have the same dream -- the same nightmare really. I dream I am in combat and I am writing home to you.
The letter in my dream always starts the same way.
2nd Lieutenant Brian Murphy, USMC
3d Littoral Combat Regiment
FPO/APO San Francisco
14 September 2029
Dear Mom and Dad,
This may be the last letter you get from me. Due to censorship, I can't tell you exactly where I am, suffice to to say it is a small islet in the South China Sea. We were deployed here several weeks ago as the potential for a China-Philippine conflict arose. I am part of the headquarters staff of a small missile-based Marine Corps unit called a Stand-in-Force.
Our wartime mission was supposed to be to fire our NMESIS anti-ship missiles at any Chinese warships that came within range which is about 120 miles. We were tasked to fire a NMESIS volley and then to displace to another island and repeat the process. This was called an Expeditionary Advance Force Operation under a Marine Corps concept called Force Design.
When war broke out, things did not go as planned The first Chinese warship (a destroyer) came into range, we fired a volley of NMESIS. The missiles never made in to within fifty miles of the target before being destroyed. The NMESIS is subsonic (slower than sound). Whatever that got them was supersonic. We haven't determined if it was an anti-aircraft missile or a laser weapon.
We immediately attempted to redeploy to the next island aboard some commercial shallow draft ships, but the Chinese targeted us before we could get them aboard the rental vessels that the Navy had procured. The Landing Ship Medium that we were supposed to use is hopelessly behind schedule. We were supposed to get the first one in a month, but the war broke out.
Now, our launchers, radars, and ships are wreckage on the beach and we are stuck here with many dead and several dozen wounded. I was lucky not to be on the beach as I am in the command post. Yesterday, a Chinese flotilla showed up and demanded our surrender. Our commanding officer declined. The Chinese appear to have several large amphibious ships and destroyers. The Chinese gave us until three this afternoon to evacuate our dead and wounded by CH53K helicopter. It is now 1300 in the afternoon. My unit Gunnery Sergeant arranged for the evacuation helicopter to carry out the mail.
It is no secret around the Corps, that many officers thought that Force Design was and is a terrible idea. I didn't know what to think. To me, it seemed like it had some problems, but being junior, I figured leaders more senior than me had the answers. It is looking like I was too trusting. As you know, I wanted to go to Dad's old outfit, the Fifth Marines, but I got stuck here because there were not enough volunteers for the 3d Littoral Regiment and I got "volen-told."
As you can imagine, morale at this point is pretty low. We are in a situation like what happened years ago to the Marines at Wake Island. Those Marines were left hanging when the reinforcement ships that were supposed to relieve them ended up at the bottom of Pearl Harbor. In this case, our potential reinforcement has been tied up in the wider war over Taiwan. We are on our own.
The Gunny has a whole theory about what has happened. He says this whole foul-up was conceived by some commandant a decade ago, and he suspects the guy may now now be in cahoots with the company that produces the NMESIS. Gunny says he is sending out a strong letter to the Marine Corps Gazette on the chopper. He doesn't think it will ever get published as the current Marine Corps leadership doesn't like criticism of their brilliant ideas. I don't encourage the Gunny, but he may be right.
Since the Chinese force is overwhelming and we only have small arms and crew-served weapons, it is likely that it will be a short battle. Our CO has told us to fight until our ammo runs out. I have no intention of surrendering. I have heard what the Chinese did to American POWs in Korea. I still have my K-Bar and intend to use it.
The Gunny is coming to pick up the mail.
Give my love to Sis and may God bless all of you.
I hope to see you all on the other side.
Semper Fi Dad,
Love, Brian.
Suddenly, the Lieutenant next to me elbows me and my arm slips off the table. I wake up with the Instructor standing over me, yelling, "if you can't stay awake Lieutenant, get up and stand in back."
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Compass Points salutes author and Marine, Gary Anderson, for his creative story, “Murphy’s Last Stand.” Gary Anderson retired as the Chief of Staff of the Marine Corps Warfighting Lab. He served as a Special Advisor to the Deputy Secretary of Defense. He writes widely on defense topics. See links below for examples.
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American Spectator
Competing With China in the Gray Zone
In the gray area between peace and war, the US must remain present and active in the Oceania and Indo-Pacific regions.
By Gary Anderson
https://spectator.org/competing-with-china-in-the-gray-zone/
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American Spectator
Getting the Marine Corps Out of the Chinese Finger Cuffs
There are interim remedies to increase the Marine Corps’ capabilities in the Indo-Pacific region, but it will take a decade to fully repair.
By Gary Anderson
https://spectator.org/getting-the-marine-corps-out-of-the-chinese-finger-cuffs/
Gary Anderson paints one of a number of terrible outcomes that are totally predictable. The length of the South China Sea is around 3000 miles depending on how you measure it. The number of Islands is surely in the thousands. How many 100 mile subsonic missiles would you need to bottle up the Chinese Fleet over that distance. What is to even suggest they would want to come out from under their own missile and air craft umbrella anyway? I’d suggest some computer simulations on a Chinese fleet selective breakout and how many islands would need Marine Units to spot, target and shoot and resupply? It does not take a Naval Strategist to see how the Chinese would destroy those units and leave the rest to wither on the vine. Have the Senior leaders forgotten the Pacific Island hopping Campaigns? I would suggest that the Chinese would simply bypass the few Marine Missile units as they run their version of the “Scharnhorst Channel Dash” and destroy others at will.
A 9th grade class with a large map, the Chinese ships and the Marine missile units could play a game by placing the pieces on the map. The exercise would be worth it just to grasp the scale of what we are talking about. Take it from there.
Early morning thought & question over a cuppa: To what extent may ideations of FD2030 - & their implementation - be a result of influence on the Corps’ leadership by industry plots/plans/& intended business end states? I’m not suggesting unethical/criminal behavior. But, instead, just trying to figure out what the source of our calamity may be given the secret modality of process that got us here. Offered as food for thought.