This is almost laughable... comical... except that our nation's Corps and its ability to perform its missions is now hindered and rendered nearly impossible by this FD2030 insanity! To brag about this, as various USMC media outlets have done, is shameful and shows the absolute disconnect that former CMC Gen Berger and his successor CMC Gen Smith and cohorts have with real world threats and even the reality of tensions in the Pacific theatre! And the littoral regiment ain't even stood up nor a single island missile unit ready to fire anti ship missiles at would-be CHICOM naval threats in the AO...
This FD2030 insanity is borderline CRIMINAL in its immediate effect and catastrophic consequences for our Corps and its time-tested, combat-proven MAGTF capabilities and the culprits of this mess must be held accountable, fired, and VISION2035 must be implemented immediately to reverse the scourge and curse of FD2030 and restore our Corps' MAGTF lethality and capabilities!
"dependent on technology maturation" - just like my time machine. Anyway, looks great for the Battle of Irisuna island. On a serious note, a review of the slides does reveal some points of light, as well as questions. Some of the equipment and portions of the concept/organization look valuable and practical, despite concerns about the MLR Approach. Still, as Compass Points noted, it looks a little like the USMC is trying to whistle past the graveyard...
Exactly WHAT will prompt the deployment of these units? How will it be accomplished, supported, and withdrawn? And, on whose orders?
I still can’t believe that the Corps is still rushing down this rabbit hole. Such half assed nonsense is not typical of a Marine Corps that the Country has to depend on. Semper Fi
From what I have read (I am not in the III MEF) I was under the impression that the Philippines did not want US missiles to be permanently stationed in the Philippines. If my statement is incorrect, I stand corrected.
That's a reasonable answer under normal conditions. Here though, the "it's in the classified OPLAN" falls flat because of reasonable questions and concerns over capability that have gone unaddressed. Further, the USMC leaned hard on the original LAW concept and any discussion of other, currently available capabilities has not been made in any detail. In fact, it seems the logistical component is often fairy dusted or treated notionally in any discussion of wargames and exercises (exercises also occasionally using current equipment either (a) as stand ins for future proposed concepts and capabilities or (b) practical reality).
The other factor to "it's classified" is that we can usually read between the lines with respect to reasonably inferring that there is something concrete on the high side. There is nothing concrete on the high side with respect to some magic hidden capability. I'll believe the "Pelican Dropship" connector exists when....no, I don't believe it's out there based on all indicators. And please don't start with 'zero day' theories or "Assassin's Maces" as a hypothetical solution.
Here's what I think is the highest probability of what the appropriate level OPLAN(s) says (unclass'd appropriate), if it isn't just left as "TBP'd (To Be Planned with future assets) hopium and copium". They'll use currently available amphibs and aviation to get the MLR (-/+) where it needs to be and support it, based on the operational priority the MLR gets. JLTV's can be slung, air transported or air dropped (I don't know about MADIS - but I assume it has normal JLTV capability though that turret may cause some headaches). That means an LHA / LPD / Army Watercraft etc supporting Ops over the shore, and maintaining the Support/Service Support to those units. It's not going to be the Low Silhouette ninja ships moving like a mirage between islands at this level of operations. (yes, I know, narco subs plus cots USV delivery vehicles are in the plan. What are they launching from?). This all is not to insinuate that we should not pursue testing and developing new concepts, capabilities, and equipment...provided we stay grounded in practical reality.
Exactly.I don’t believe that any of those issues were asked/answered prior to the implementation of Force Design…Nor do I believe they have been hashed out today.
But I like to point out that fairy dusting log during wargames and exercises is not unique to FD2030, as I'm sure you know. Every single real-world and planning exercise and wargame I've ever participated in fairy dusted log planning to include EWS, CSC, and even AXLOG (of all places). Completely infuriating. If anything, I'd argue that flaws with FD2030 are a result of this culture, not the cause.
I have ranted about how commanders got whatever they wanted, whenever they wanted it while sitting in climate controlled COCs for 20 years of GWOT. Now they're in charge and the muscles needed to solve hard sustainment and mobility issues atrophied. We're trying to sprint up-hill after skipping leg day for two decades.
On occasion, I served as a controller operating from the computer van during our large scale exercises at Pendleton and 29 Palms. We examined, tracked, recorded and notated on computer generated tactical maps, every aspect of the movements, activities and performance of each unit. The critiques and the end were necessarily brutal…I can’t remember a single instance of anyone making excuses. But this was in 1975/6. Semper Fi
I vaguely remember the US Navy having serious problems with a certain torpedo in the first half of the Pacific campaign. Many did not detonate. This was hushed up by the Navy until it was eventually corrected. I fear we are looking at a similar situation with either mechanical or method of employment problems.
Compass Points’ March 14 article, “NMESIS Flaw,” cuts to the bone—3rd MLR’s HIMARS test on LCU-1635, March 8, sank a mock target. FD2030 touts it—600 km range, 12 knots. China’s DF-26—4,000 km—laughs. Slow, short, vulnerable—NMESIS is a weak finger in FD2030’s scattered hand
Even if one could wave magic fairy dust and large numbers of LSMs and missiles appeared, that would still not make the concept of "Wake Island" defense units viable. I'm not sure which is a bigger fantasy, transgender Marines or FD2030. If they called it FD1930, at least it would be honest.
With the divesting of armor and artillery, its a good thing we have not needed the capabilities of the NMESIS, the 12th MLR, or the SIF so far. If so, we would have been caught with our pants down, so to speak. The 12th MLR is a unit without its primary weapons system. In the Military.com article, Lt. Col. Eric Flanagan, the spokesman for Marine Corps Combat Development and Integration, said the NMESIS has not arrived yet, but they will arrive eventually. That to me, does not inspire much confidence in the development of the system. The infantry battalion of the regiment is nothing more than three rifle companies. I will surmise that their heaviest weapon is the company 60mm mortar, in each of the three rifle companies. There is no weapons company for the battalion. So, in a close fight the battalion will just have the mortars. After 4-5 years of this nonsense, I say call it a day and return to the the pre-FD Marine Division. Add a HIMARS battalion (or at least a battery) to each of the traditional artillery regiments and have the Precision Strike Missile for the long-range anti-ship capability. Thus Marine Corps can once again be a robust combined arms naval expeditionary force, with the addition of an anti-missile capability.
This reminds me of an Acquisition Course I took while at the Air Force Institute of Technology at Dayton, OH. The instructor was giving examples of programs gone awry and showed pictures of a production aircraft that was undergoing a sample inspection. During the inspection, the inspector noted that the cockpit had cardboard cutouts that represented the instrumentation. I guess that was the 1% sample that failed production.
"The Washington Post was the first to report the story last year, based on a confidential report on the effectiveness of weapons in combat. The verdict was damning: After the initial success and hype, HIMARS was now deemed “completely ineffective” at the hands of Russian jamming by the Ukrainians using them along the front line."
"Multiple rocket launcher systems such as HIMARS rely on clear GPS data to operate effectively. For one, the vehicle must be able to detect precisely where it located in order to determine its relative position to the target. "
Didn't the Corps just get rid of a lot of M777 155mm artillery and buy into HIMARS? Does anyone really think that our adversaries will allow us unfettered access to the GPS network?
What other weapons systems rely on GPS for targeting? JDAMs? RAP rounds? Missiles?
That MLR Capabilities presentation has got to be the worst set of briefing slides I’ve ever seen. Totally incomprehensible. No wonder Force Design is such a mess.
Well well we are back to the black magic and BS of FD2030, lots of hand waving and don’t ask don’t tell, only in this case don’t ask where the missiles are and why we don’t have them, and don’t tell, just shut up and accept that progress with the MLR and SIF have been made, and for sure don’t adjust the maneuver scheme to fit the new reality. Why do that, Raytheon is on our side. Who needs ships anyway? Well you are not getting the ships anyway, so go open a c-rat can of apricots. (Aren’t “cots” bad luck?) If we were in a barn yard we would hear chickens clucking and donkeys braying. Taking all this a step further, it seems clear that some analysis of the entire structure of our national defense posture might be in order. Do we really need 11 Combatant Commands? How much redundancy is there and how large the staffs? Oh and this writers favorite “Joint Commands!” Lots of Generals and Admirals, (anyone get the latest “Proceedings” and see how many Flag officers we have in the Department of the Navy?) In another venue a retired Marine Officer was being interviewed, he had served with the then BLT that sailed to and stood off the coast of Lebanon in 1958. The mere presence of what we now call the ARG/MEU just offshore and the mere possibility that a MAGTF capable force of the day could come ashore, and settle things down, brought the locals to come to reason and knock off their nonsense. If the larger national defense picture reduced the global commitments to something less big than currently in place, what force would still provide versatility and presence at relative low cost? Well don’t rush to answer, but we wouldn’t be waiting for Raytheon to hand over the rockets and fireworks. It’s on the tip of the writers tongue…MA…MAG…MAG..something MAGT…MAGTMLR?? Nope, MAGTF! ARG/MEU! Equally, either there is a Title X mandate and it is met or there is failure to do so. Until Title X is met or the mandate is changed, the current mission is not being accomplished. We can pass all the financial audits we want, but NMESIS is a great example of time and energy spent to NOT meet the statutory requirements laid out by congress. Time to move. Time for some senior management change. Time to revert to basics and meet the mission.
This is almost laughable... comical... except that our nation's Corps and its ability to perform its missions is now hindered and rendered nearly impossible by this FD2030 insanity! To brag about this, as various USMC media outlets have done, is shameful and shows the absolute disconnect that former CMC Gen Berger and his successor CMC Gen Smith and cohorts have with real world threats and even the reality of tensions in the Pacific theatre! And the littoral regiment ain't even stood up nor a single island missile unit ready to fire anti ship missiles at would-be CHICOM naval threats in the AO...
This FD2030 insanity is borderline CRIMINAL in its immediate effect and catastrophic consequences for our Corps and its time-tested, combat-proven MAGTF capabilities and the culprits of this mess must be held accountable, fired, and VISION2035 must be implemented immediately to reverse the scourge and curse of FD2030 and restore our Corps' MAGTF lethality and capabilities!
Semper Fidelis!
The basic problem here is a glaring and gross lack of integrity. How can these “leaders” continue to serve? It is just a damn shame.
"dependent on technology maturation" - just like my time machine. Anyway, looks great for the Battle of Irisuna island. On a serious note, a review of the slides does reveal some points of light, as well as questions. Some of the equipment and portions of the concept/organization look valuable and practical, despite concerns about the MLR Approach. Still, as Compass Points noted, it looks a little like the USMC is trying to whistle past the graveyard...
Exactly WHAT will prompt the deployment of these units? How will it be accomplished, supported, and withdrawn? And, on whose orders?
I still can’t believe that the Corps is still rushing down this rabbit hole. Such half assed nonsense is not typical of a Marine Corps that the Country has to depend on. Semper Fi
Not to mention the fact that some nations, such as the Philippines, will not allow the stationing of the SIF in their country.
This is not true. You are clearly not in III MEF or MARFORPAC or you would know that your statement it an outright fallacy.
From what I have read (I am not in the III MEF) I was under the impression that the Philippines did not want US missiles to be permanently stationed in the Philippines. If my statement is incorrect, I stand corrected.
To be fair, you're asking OPLAN level questions that you shouldn't get the answers to for good reason.
That's a reasonable answer under normal conditions. Here though, the "it's in the classified OPLAN" falls flat because of reasonable questions and concerns over capability that have gone unaddressed. Further, the USMC leaned hard on the original LAW concept and any discussion of other, currently available capabilities has not been made in any detail. In fact, it seems the logistical component is often fairy dusted or treated notionally in any discussion of wargames and exercises (exercises also occasionally using current equipment either (a) as stand ins for future proposed concepts and capabilities or (b) practical reality).
The other factor to "it's classified" is that we can usually read between the lines with respect to reasonably inferring that there is something concrete on the high side. There is nothing concrete on the high side with respect to some magic hidden capability. I'll believe the "Pelican Dropship" connector exists when....no, I don't believe it's out there based on all indicators. And please don't start with 'zero day' theories or "Assassin's Maces" as a hypothetical solution.
Here's what I think is the highest probability of what the appropriate level OPLAN(s) says (unclass'd appropriate), if it isn't just left as "TBP'd (To Be Planned with future assets) hopium and copium". They'll use currently available amphibs and aviation to get the MLR (-/+) where it needs to be and support it, based on the operational priority the MLR gets. JLTV's can be slung, air transported or air dropped (I don't know about MADIS - but I assume it has normal JLTV capability though that turret may cause some headaches). That means an LHA / LPD / Army Watercraft etc supporting Ops over the shore, and maintaining the Support/Service Support to those units. It's not going to be the Low Silhouette ninja ships moving like a mirage between islands at this level of operations. (yes, I know, narco subs plus cots USV delivery vehicles are in the plan. What are they launching from?). This all is not to insinuate that we should not pursue testing and developing new concepts, capabilities, and equipment...provided we stay grounded in practical reality.
Exactly.I don’t believe that any of those issues were asked/answered prior to the implementation of Force Design…Nor do I believe they have been hashed out today.
I agree with all that.
But I like to point out that fairy dusting log during wargames and exercises is not unique to FD2030, as I'm sure you know. Every single real-world and planning exercise and wargame I've ever participated in fairy dusted log planning to include EWS, CSC, and even AXLOG (of all places). Completely infuriating. If anything, I'd argue that flaws with FD2030 are a result of this culture, not the cause.
I have ranted about how commanders got whatever they wanted, whenever they wanted it while sitting in climate controlled COCs for 20 years of GWOT. Now they're in charge and the muscles needed to solve hard sustainment and mobility issues atrophied. We're trying to sprint up-hill after skipping leg day for two decades.
On occasion, I served as a controller operating from the computer van during our large scale exercises at Pendleton and 29 Palms. We examined, tracked, recorded and notated on computer generated tactical maps, every aspect of the movements, activities and performance of each unit. The critiques and the end were necessarily brutal…I can’t remember a single instance of anyone making excuses. But this was in 1975/6. Semper Fi
I vaguely remember the US Navy having serious problems with a certain torpedo in the first half of the Pacific campaign. Many did not detonate. This was hushed up by the Navy until it was eventually corrected. I fear we are looking at a similar situation with either mechanical or method of employment problems.
To be paid for in life & limb by young Sailors & Marines. I hope that statement is not prophetic … but, “Hope Is Not A Method”, Is it?
NMESIS Exposed
Compass Points’ March 14 article, “NMESIS Flaw,” cuts to the bone—3rd MLR’s HIMARS test on LCU-1635, March 8, sank a mock target. FD2030 touts it—600 km range, 12 knots. China’s DF-26—4,000 km—laughs. Slow, short, vulnerable—NMESIS is a weak finger in FD2030’s scattered hand
Even if one could wave magic fairy dust and large numbers of LSMs and missiles appeared, that would still not make the concept of "Wake Island" defense units viable. I'm not sure which is a bigger fantasy, transgender Marines or FD2030. If they called it FD1930, at least it would be honest.
With the divesting of armor and artillery, its a good thing we have not needed the capabilities of the NMESIS, the 12th MLR, or the SIF so far. If so, we would have been caught with our pants down, so to speak. The 12th MLR is a unit without its primary weapons system. In the Military.com article, Lt. Col. Eric Flanagan, the spokesman for Marine Corps Combat Development and Integration, said the NMESIS has not arrived yet, but they will arrive eventually. That to me, does not inspire much confidence in the development of the system. The infantry battalion of the regiment is nothing more than three rifle companies. I will surmise that their heaviest weapon is the company 60mm mortar, in each of the three rifle companies. There is no weapons company for the battalion. So, in a close fight the battalion will just have the mortars. After 4-5 years of this nonsense, I say call it a day and return to the the pre-FD Marine Division. Add a HIMARS battalion (or at least a battery) to each of the traditional artillery regiments and have the Precision Strike Missile for the long-range anti-ship capability. Thus Marine Corps can once again be a robust combined arms naval expeditionary force, with the addition of an anti-missile capability.
This reminds me of an Acquisition Course I took while at the Air Force Institute of Technology at Dayton, OH. The instructor was giving examples of programs gone awry and showed pictures of a production aircraft that was undergoing a sample inspection. During the inspection, the inspector noted that the cockpit had cardboard cutouts that represented the instrumentation. I guess that was the 1% sample that failed production.
One more "HOW" to add to the list....HOW is the missile targeting the target? J
Just read a very interesting article:
https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2025/03/13/us-allies-rush-to-refit-their-big-guns-with-gps-protections/?utm_source=sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=dfn-dnr
"The Washington Post was the first to report the story last year, based on a confidential report on the effectiveness of weapons in combat. The verdict was damning: After the initial success and hype, HIMARS was now deemed “completely ineffective” at the hands of Russian jamming by the Ukrainians using them along the front line."
"Multiple rocket launcher systems such as HIMARS rely on clear GPS data to operate effectively. For one, the vehicle must be able to detect precisely where it located in order to determine its relative position to the target. "
Didn't the Corps just get rid of a lot of M777 155mm artillery and buy into HIMARS? Does anyone really think that our adversaries will allow us unfettered access to the GPS network?
What other weapons systems rely on GPS for targeting? JDAMs? RAP rounds? Missiles?
That MLR Capabilities presentation has got to be the worst set of briefing slides I’ve ever seen. Totally incomprehensible. No wonder Force Design is such a mess.
Well well we are back to the black magic and BS of FD2030, lots of hand waving and don’t ask don’t tell, only in this case don’t ask where the missiles are and why we don’t have them, and don’t tell, just shut up and accept that progress with the MLR and SIF have been made, and for sure don’t adjust the maneuver scheme to fit the new reality. Why do that, Raytheon is on our side. Who needs ships anyway? Well you are not getting the ships anyway, so go open a c-rat can of apricots. (Aren’t “cots” bad luck?) If we were in a barn yard we would hear chickens clucking and donkeys braying. Taking all this a step further, it seems clear that some analysis of the entire structure of our national defense posture might be in order. Do we really need 11 Combatant Commands? How much redundancy is there and how large the staffs? Oh and this writers favorite “Joint Commands!” Lots of Generals and Admirals, (anyone get the latest “Proceedings” and see how many Flag officers we have in the Department of the Navy?) In another venue a retired Marine Officer was being interviewed, he had served with the then BLT that sailed to and stood off the coast of Lebanon in 1958. The mere presence of what we now call the ARG/MEU just offshore and the mere possibility that a MAGTF capable force of the day could come ashore, and settle things down, brought the locals to come to reason and knock off their nonsense. If the larger national defense picture reduced the global commitments to something less big than currently in place, what force would still provide versatility and presence at relative low cost? Well don’t rush to answer, but we wouldn’t be waiting for Raytheon to hand over the rockets and fireworks. It’s on the tip of the writers tongue…MA…MAG…MAG..something MAGT…MAGTMLR?? Nope, MAGTF! ARG/MEU! Equally, either there is a Title X mandate and it is met or there is failure to do so. Until Title X is met or the mandate is changed, the current mission is not being accomplished. We can pass all the financial audits we want, but NMESIS is a great example of time and energy spent to NOT meet the statutory requirements laid out by congress. Time to move. Time for some senior management change. Time to revert to basics and meet the mission.