Here's to the brave Philippine Marines manning station on the BRP Sierra Madre. An unpleasant but necessary mission to offset Chinese operations and expansion after the seizure of Mischief Reef; they are what SIF looks like in practice in the grey zone of conflict. This isn't expeditionary, this is Homeland Defense for the PI.
If the Marine Corps was again a true naval expeditionary force, like it was prior to FD2030, and armed with a drone capability, it would be a strong offensive force. The hedge force capabilities could be used in the maritime choke points, and the traditional expeditionary force could be used to threaten Chinese (or whoever's) worldwide holdings. The original Advance Base Force of the 1920s, if I'm not mistaken had an expeditionary component as well as a defensive component. I believe we can do both and not be a "one trick pony."
Re what is Biden going to say, it’s really what will his handlers let him say and what cocktail of drugs he has ingested. When we go down the CCP Owns the Biden Crime family all we need to do for starters is read the Sworn Congressional Testimony of Former Naval Officer Bobulinski and or the transcripts of Representative Comer and or Jordan’s Committee hearings. Add to this the Lies of 51 Former Senior Intelligence Officers regarding the veracity of the Hunter Biden Laptop and the alleged reality that Secretary of State Blinken, Director of Debacle of Kabul organizer and who coordinated their Letter of Lies. Kirby, another insidious prevaricator who sees little from his perch has no integrity on any issue whatsoever in my opinion. This is the administration that has facilitated funding what is arguably Our biggest enemy Iran.
a few days before our President has a telephone conference with Xi Jinping. What is POTUS going to say: Mr Jinping you need to honor the Hong Kong Agreement; or your need to stop the
confrontation with the Philippines and start honoring International Maritime Law; or stop the confrontations with India, or stop supporting the military junta in Myanmar, or etc, etc, etc.
One more thought. It is not easy to clear sea mines. It would slow any Chinese invasion by sea. Easier to sink ships that are clearing mines or slowed by mine fields.
BRI came to be seen as a form of Colonialism in SE Asia and Africa. I would not call it a financial crisis nor is their demographic situation a crisis. It is an adjustment they must accommodate.
Global trade remains crucial to U.S. prosperity but not the one way situation we have been in with China for 30 plus years
China has one of the five fastest-aging workforces in human history. They had a 70% drop in their birth rate in the last five years, and some believe even those statistics are wrong – that they overcounted the population by 100 million people.
“China is not in demographic decay, it’s in the advanced stages of demographic collapse,” Zeihan said. “The best-case scenario for the People’s Republic of China is that they will dissolve, as an industrial nation-state, within 10 years. Plan accordingly.”
In China’s situation, one of accelerating decline, governance is important, Zeihan said. “Having a system that can accumulate information, come up with a plan, implement it at scale – that’s what allows countries to deal with these situations, and that is not what we have in China,” he said.
Chairman Xi Jinping has established himself as the sole decisionmaker, but because he has criminalized information exchange, he wasn’t immediately aware of this demographic problem, Zeihan said. Once he was aware, it still took another seven months for the government to come up with a policy to address it, he added; Jinping was also unaware of the rolling blackouts in Beijing in early 2021 and the spy balloon that appeared over Montana until after it had been shot down by the U.S.
“On a good day, the Chinese system, the part that is viable, looks like a badly run Enron,” Zeihan joked. “Count on nothing from the Chinese – they’re going away. Everything they manufactured is going away, and we need to prepare for that.” “The End of the World is just the Beginning, Mapping the collapse of Globalization “ Peter Zeihan. George Friedman, Geopolitical Political Futures has similar analysis. I am not a Zeihan Fanatic but, he called the Russian Invasion of Ukraine. George Friedman did not think Putin would invade. Zeihan constantly pumps out You Tube products.
If anything highlights our impotence in conventional war-fighting capabilities it is our inability to defend Taiwan at a cost that would not become a very costly victory. Most certainly, we do not have the industrial capacity to expand our Navy let alone replace significant losses. The defense of Taiwan is a Navy, Air Force and Space Force mission with very minor contributions by the Army let alone the USMC as currently organized. In all of our Post WW II proxy wars we have not attacked nuclear powers USSR/Russia or China on their home turf. If Taiwan wants a credible deterrent it should look to nuclear weapons. China will not trade Shanghai for Taipei.
Frankly, I doubt China will invade Taiwan. They are patient, see the US as an Empire in decline and only need to wait. No reason for the dragon to attack an aging and wounded Eagle.
CCP is in a financial and demographic crisis. This is a Geopolitical Futures piece on the first point, Peter Zeihan predicts it demise by the end of the decade because of its demographic time bomb. The Eagle is strong and we need no one globalization is dead. Corruption, delays and boondoggles are transforming the Belt and Road Initiative.
Geopolitical Futures By: Victoria Herczegh
Last week, the head of China's Central Commission for Discipline Inspection laid out the watchdog’s main goals for this year. His report focused on eliminating corruption and unhealthy practices associated with Beijing’s gargantuan, globe-spanning infrastructure development plan, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This follows President Xi Jinping’s declaration of a shift away from large-scale projects toward the “small but beautiful.” Once celebrated as a symbol of China’s rise as a global power, lately the BRI has been met with doubts about the integrity and viability of its projects. If implemented, Beijing’s new approach could reduce risk while improving the efficiency of its investments, but first China will need to address lingering problems associated with its previous approach.
Conceived more than a decade ago, at a time when China’s economic ascent seemed unstoppable, the BRI was initially meant to create an expanded, interdependent market for China and thus grow the country’s geoeconomic and geopolitical power. However, it has in some cases turned into a reputational hazard and financial risk for Beijing. Major recipients of Chinese investment such as Zambia and Sri Lanka have defaulted, giving substance to critics’ claims that Beijing is a predatory lender and that BRI loans are debt traps. Facing its own debt concerns at home, China has hesitated to forgive or restructure its foreign loans, while its secrecy regarding the size and terms of its loans has deterred other major lenders from offering assistance. It didn’t help Beijing’s reputation when the Associated Press reported last year that China requires borrowers to deposit funds in hidden escrow accounts to ensure that it gets paid first in a crisis.
Then there are the broken promises, which are most evident in Southeast Asia. According to a recent study by the Lowy Institute, out of 24 major regional projects worth a combined $77 billion, only about $25 billion has been delivered. Just a third of these projects are finished, while another third – mostly infrastructure megaprojects – either have been or are expected to be canceled. Similar shortcomings a (cont)
Very good points. I would welcome it, if it were true. Can they manage to still prosper with an older population and population decline? We might yet find out.
Considering the critical importance of reversing the destructive direction the Nation is currently headed, 2024 is absolutely a point in our History where the survival of the Republic is at stake. Moreover 4 years is not enough time to repair the damage. Thus the Conservative choice for the V.P. candidate is equally crucial to continue the rebuilding effort in 2028. IMHO candidates like Mike Pompeo will be key to that effort so the Republicans have to vet any candidates with that mission in mind to avoid selecting an un-electable figurehead versus a true leader.
Here's to the brave Philippine Marines manning station on the BRP Sierra Madre. An unpleasant but necessary mission to offset Chinese operations and expansion after the seizure of Mischief Reef; they are what SIF looks like in practice in the grey zone of conflict. This isn't expeditionary, this is Homeland Defense for the PI.
If the Marine Corps was again a true naval expeditionary force, like it was prior to FD2030, and armed with a drone capability, it would be a strong offensive force. The hedge force capabilities could be used in the maritime choke points, and the traditional expeditionary force could be used to threaten Chinese (or whoever's) worldwide holdings. The original Advance Base Force of the 1920s, if I'm not mistaken had an expeditionary component as well as a defensive component. I believe we can do both and not be a "one trick pony."
Re what is Biden going to say, it’s really what will his handlers let him say and what cocktail of drugs he has ingested. When we go down the CCP Owns the Biden Crime family all we need to do for starters is read the Sworn Congressional Testimony of Former Naval Officer Bobulinski and or the transcripts of Representative Comer and or Jordan’s Committee hearings. Add to this the Lies of 51 Former Senior Intelligence Officers regarding the veracity of the Hunter Biden Laptop and the alleged reality that Secretary of State Blinken, Director of Debacle of Kabul organizer and who coordinated their Letter of Lies. Kirby, another insidious prevaricator who sees little from his perch has no integrity on any issue whatsoever in my opinion. This is the administration that has facilitated funding what is arguably Our biggest enemy Iran.
and then we have this: https://www.nationalreview.com/news/kirby-says-u-s-doesnt-support-taiwan-independence-as-china-threatens-pelosi-ahead-of-expected-taiwan-trip/
a few days before our President has a telephone conference with Xi Jinping. What is POTUS going to say: Mr Jinping you need to honor the Hong Kong Agreement; or your need to stop the
confrontation with the Philippines and start honoring International Maritime Law; or stop the confrontations with India, or stop supporting the military junta in Myanmar, or etc, etc, etc.
One more thought. It is not easy to clear sea mines. It would slow any Chinese invasion by sea. Easier to sink ships that are clearing mines or slowed by mine fields.
We learned this the hard way when the USS Tripoli hit a mine during the Gulf War. Luckily the damage was repaired and she was soon back in service.
BRI came to be seen as a form of Colonialism in SE Asia and Africa. I would not call it a financial crisis nor is their demographic situation a crisis. It is an adjustment they must accommodate.
Global trade remains crucial to U.S. prosperity but not the one way situation we have been in with China for 30 plus years
Peter Zeihan…THE CHINA PROBLEM
China has one of the five fastest-aging workforces in human history. They had a 70% drop in their birth rate in the last five years, and some believe even those statistics are wrong – that they overcounted the population by 100 million people.
“China is not in demographic decay, it’s in the advanced stages of demographic collapse,” Zeihan said. “The best-case scenario for the People’s Republic of China is that they will dissolve, as an industrial nation-state, within 10 years. Plan accordingly.”
In China’s situation, one of accelerating decline, governance is important, Zeihan said. “Having a system that can accumulate information, come up with a plan, implement it at scale – that’s what allows countries to deal with these situations, and that is not what we have in China,” he said.
Chairman Xi Jinping has established himself as the sole decisionmaker, but because he has criminalized information exchange, he wasn’t immediately aware of this demographic problem, Zeihan said. Once he was aware, it still took another seven months for the government to come up with a policy to address it, he added; Jinping was also unaware of the rolling blackouts in Beijing in early 2021 and the spy balloon that appeared over Montana until after it had been shot down by the U.S.
“On a good day, the Chinese system, the part that is viable, looks like a badly run Enron,” Zeihan joked. “Count on nothing from the Chinese – they’re going away. Everything they manufactured is going away, and we need to prepare for that.” “The End of the World is just the Beginning, Mapping the collapse of Globalization “ Peter Zeihan. George Friedman, Geopolitical Political Futures has similar analysis. I am not a Zeihan Fanatic but, he called the Russian Invasion of Ukraine. George Friedman did not think Putin would invade. Zeihan constantly pumps out You Tube products.
If anything highlights our impotence in conventional war-fighting capabilities it is our inability to defend Taiwan at a cost that would not become a very costly victory. Most certainly, we do not have the industrial capacity to expand our Navy let alone replace significant losses. The defense of Taiwan is a Navy, Air Force and Space Force mission with very minor contributions by the Army let alone the USMC as currently organized. In all of our Post WW II proxy wars we have not attacked nuclear powers USSR/Russia or China on their home turf. If Taiwan wants a credible deterrent it should look to nuclear weapons. China will not trade Shanghai for Taipei.
Frankly, I doubt China will invade Taiwan. They are patient, see the US as an Empire in decline and only need to wait. No reason for the dragon to attack an aging and wounded Eagle.
CCP is in a financial and demographic crisis. This is a Geopolitical Futures piece on the first point, Peter Zeihan predicts it demise by the end of the decade because of its demographic time bomb. The Eagle is strong and we need no one globalization is dead. Corruption, delays and boondoggles are transforming the Belt and Road Initiative.
Geopolitical Futures By: Victoria Herczegh
Last week, the head of China's Central Commission for Discipline Inspection laid out the watchdog’s main goals for this year. His report focused on eliminating corruption and unhealthy practices associated with Beijing’s gargantuan, globe-spanning infrastructure development plan, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This follows President Xi Jinping’s declaration of a shift away from large-scale projects toward the “small but beautiful.” Once celebrated as a symbol of China’s rise as a global power, lately the BRI has been met with doubts about the integrity and viability of its projects. If implemented, Beijing’s new approach could reduce risk while improving the efficiency of its investments, but first China will need to address lingering problems associated with its previous approach.
Conceived more than a decade ago, at a time when China’s economic ascent seemed unstoppable, the BRI was initially meant to create an expanded, interdependent market for China and thus grow the country’s geoeconomic and geopolitical power. However, it has in some cases turned into a reputational hazard and financial risk for Beijing. Major recipients of Chinese investment such as Zambia and Sri Lanka have defaulted, giving substance to critics’ claims that Beijing is a predatory lender and that BRI loans are debt traps. Facing its own debt concerns at home, China has hesitated to forgive or restructure its foreign loans, while its secrecy regarding the size and terms of its loans has deterred other major lenders from offering assistance. It didn’t help Beijing’s reputation when the Associated Press reported last year that China requires borrowers to deposit funds in hidden escrow accounts to ensure that it gets paid first in a crisis.
Then there are the broken promises, which are most evident in Southeast Asia. According to a recent study by the Lowy Institute, out of 24 major regional projects worth a combined $77 billion, only about $25 billion has been delivered. Just a third of these projects are finished, while another third – mostly infrastructure megaprojects – either have been or are expected to be canceled. Similar shortcomings a (cont)
Very good points. I would welcome it, if it were true. Can they manage to still prosper with an older population and population decline? We might yet find out.
Considering the critical importance of reversing the destructive direction the Nation is currently headed, 2024 is absolutely a point in our History where the survival of the Republic is at stake. Moreover 4 years is not enough time to repair the damage. Thus the Conservative choice for the V.P. candidate is equally crucial to continue the rebuilding effort in 2028. IMHO candidates like Mike Pompeo will be key to that effort so the Republicans have to vet any candidates with that mission in mind to avoid selecting an un-electable figurehead versus a true leader.