Compass Points - Resist China
Deter China in South China Sea
Compass Points - Resist China
Deter China in South China Sea
July 25, 2024
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How to resist China?
How to resist China's aggression today, particularly in the South China Sea, is a complex question with no simple answers. But the US and her allies in the Pacific must not simply stand and watch as China expands its influence. China is doing much more than sending coast guard vessels in and around the Spratly Islands. USNI News is reporting on actions by the Chinese navy.
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The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) and the Russian Navy launched a joint naval exercise on Sunday that will take place in the South China Sea. Also on Sunday, a separate joint naval patrol by the two navies also entered the South China Sea.
Joint Sea 2024 has been an ongoing event since 2012, according to a Russian Ministry of Defense release on the exercise. The MoD added that the first joint naval exercise of the Russian Navy and the PLA Navy was held in the Yellow Sea in 2005.
The exercise, launched from the southern Chinese city of Zhanjiang, which is also the headquarters of the PLAN South Sea Fleet, began its sea phase on Monday, with ships leaving the port to begin drills in the South China Sea.
. . . Chinese state media Xinhua reported that the patrol entered the South China Sea on Sunday. The patrol consists of Russian Navy corvette RFS Sovershenny (333) and PLAN destroyer CNS Yinchuan (175), frigate CNS Hengshui (572) and fleet oiler Weishanhu. Russia’s Defence Ministry stated that the joint patrol carried out simulated missile firing drills, actual gun firing practice and cross-deck landings while in the Philippine Sea along with a boarding and search exercise.
-- USNI News
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An opinion article in the New York Times recently argued that the US must stand up to China's advances in the South China Sea. The danger from China is not just all out war or an invasion of Taiwan, there is also the ongoing issue of China intimidating Pacific nations.
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I study Chinese military strength and strategy, and I’m convinced that if the United States were to take a more assertive stance in the South China Sea, Beijing would be likely to back down to avoid a war it knows it would lose.
. . . It’s telling that China has been careful to use Coast Guard and civilian vessels in its encounters with neighbors rather than hard military assets — the latter would signal an escalation that Beijing is not yet willing to embark on. But there is another very good reason China is unlikely to risk war with the United States: It doesn’t need to. Its brinkmanship and use of nonmilitary assets to intimidate its Asian neighbors has been more than enough to take China from almost no military presence in the South China Sea in the late 2000s to a significant force today.
America should call China’s bluff and press its military advantage. This could include escorting Philippine resupply vessels headed to Second Thomas Shoal or even conducting some supply missions itself or with allies like Australia and Japan. This would send China the powerful message that its intimidation will no longer go unchallenged, while allowing Manila to remain visibly in the lead but part of a more enduring coalition. To save face for China, Washington could present operations like these as exercises or training to minimize pressure on Beijing to respond.
. . . The United States can re-establish a favorable balance of power, but it must act now.
-- New York Times, "Call Beijing’s Bluff In The South China Sea"
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What US forces could be used to counter China's South China Sea aggression without starting a wider war? The Amphibious Ready Group - Marine Expeditionary Force provides the prefect answer. The ARG-MEU provides a ready, immediate force that can respond in a restrained and tailored way. Today’s MEUs need to quickly restore the full and robust combined arms capabilities they once had. In any complex situation, combined arms Marines on Navy ships – able to be rapidly augmented and enhanced through maritime pre-positioning ships and fly-in-echelons -- provide a powerful US presence and give US policy makers tremendous options.
In addition, Marine combined arms forces can be expanded, augmented and rapidly plugged into the fight should China start a wider war.
The ARG-MEU is flexible, available, and powerful. What about small isolated Marine missile units scattered among Pacific islands? Arguably, they are too small and poorly armed to be of much use in a wider war. And they are of little or no use in the influence campaign that China is prosecuting right now. The Marine Corps needs to stop its fascination with small Marine missile units and return its focus to worldwide crisis response.
The New York Times ended its opinion article, "Call Beijing’s Bluff In The South China Sea" with the words, "The United States can re-establish a favorable balance of power, but it must act now." In a similar way, the United States Marine Corps can re-establish a favorable balance of MAGTF focused, combined arms power, but it must act now.
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USNI News - 07/15/2024
Joint Chinese, Russian Naval Drills Start in South China Sea
By Dzirhan Mahadzir
https://news.usni.org/2024/07/15/joint-chinese-russian-naval-drills-start-in-south-china-sea
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New York Times - 07/25/2024
Call Beijing’s Bluff In The South China Sea
By Oriana Skylar Mastro
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/25/opinion/china-us-military-south-china-sea.html
Deterring Chinese adventurism in the region of the South China Sea is much, much more than a sail past, fly by strategy. It requires a nuts and bolts approach to stationing ships, squadrons, submarines and advanced bases across the region to work with allies. Deterrence does not come cheaply. Think of the US Army and US Air Force presence in Europe for almost 50 years which we, against all logic downsized. The results are obvious.
It is time to recreate SEATO with members Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, the Philippines, South Korea, Japan, Australia and the United States. ( I do not include New Zealand as their foreign policy is bankrupt and Canada has nothing to offer.) Future consideration for Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos.
One portion of this should be the permanent deployment of an Amphibious Ready Group and a Carrier Battle Group on station 365 days a year. The MEU must have teeth and be versatile enough for many missions. Their current configurations add little to give the Chinese any true concern.
Very little of this is possible with the current size and state of DoD. The Chinese do not look at budgets or research or personnel expenditures. They calculate by ships, planes, combat units, the logistics to support them and the training of those operational units.
Nothing in our posture will create concern.
Ultimately, the ability to keep China contained will fail if they remain our trading partner where profit trumps values. We are making them wealthier and stronger by the day as we complain about their expanding influence. The Chinese understand every aspect of the competition. We fail to understand most of them and are impotent relative to the rest.
The Corps doesn’t seem to do much of anything well today. Constant yammering about things to come with no focus on operational excellence.
The acceptance of the ACV and dumping tanks, artillery and engineering assets borders on criminality but is more likely laziness and unwillingness to accept the responsibility that goes with heavy, hard hitting weapons.
Special operations are not game changers and appeal to dilettantes, not serious Marine officers. Semper Fi