Compass Points - Size Matters
Preparing to fight a peer adversary.
Compass Points - Size Matters
Preparing to fight a peer adversary.
August 16, 2024
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If the United States is going to stay out of a shooting war with China, we must deter China every day with a massive show of force around the globe and particularly in the Pacific.
A few small, lightly armed Marine units on islands in the Pacific? No, that will not deter.
We need a massive show of force, like RIMPAC.
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The 2024 iteration of RIMPAC, a biennial event that has been deemed the world’s largest international maritime exercise, ran from June 27 to Aug. 1 near Hawaii. It included participation from 29 nations, 40 surface ships, three submarines, 14 national land forces, more than 150 aircraft, and 25,000 personnel, according to the Pentagon.
. . . This summer’s massive, multinational Rim of the Pacific military exercise served as a large-scale testbed for technologies connected to the U.S. Navy’s secretive Project Overmatch — a key element of the service’s future warfighting capability that puts a premium on software-defined networks.
Overmatch is part of the Navy’s contribution to the Pentagon’s Combined Joint All-Domain Command and Control (CJADC2) effort to better connect the U.S. military’s sensors, shooters, platforms and personnel across the services and with key allies. Service leaders have described it as the bedrock for the joint tactical network of the future.
-- Defense Scoop
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RIMPAC was a tremendous exercise and a strong deterrent to China. But massive deterrence in the Pacific can never stop, because China never stops.
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MANILA, Philippines — A significant number of Chinese maritime vessels were spotted in the West Philippine Sea in six days, according to the Armed Forces of the Philippines.
The military’s data released on Tuesday said that there are a total of 92 Chinese maritime vessels spotted in different parts of the West Philippine Sea from August 6 to August 12.
The latest number of ships was lower than the 122 vessels recorded from July 30 to August 5.
The following are the number of vessels depending on their classification:
Chinese Coast Guard: 13
Peoples Liberation Army-Navy: 9
Chinese Maritime Militia: 68
-- PhilStar
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Every week, China is sailing roughly 100 ships off the Philippine coast. Obviously, not all the ships are warships, but China keeps the pressure on all day, every day. Pacific nations must ask themselves every day whether they should buckle under to China or move closer to the US.
To trust the US, Pacific nations need to see the US Navy and Marines on constant patrol in the Pacific. Pacific nations want to see the US Navy and Marine Corps ARG/MEU. We need more ARG/MEUs. We need to use more non-traditional amphibs like the Expeditionary Fast Transports that are built and ready for use today. And we need to build more amphibs as fast as we can.
In some good news, USNI News is reporting about a new agreement.
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The Navy is preparing to award an estimated $11.5 billion multi-ship deal to build four amphibious warships, according to a copy of a Tuesday Navy notification to Congress reviewed by USNI News.
According to the Aug. 14 notification, the Department of the Navy will purchase three San Antonio class Flight II amphibious warships and a Flight I America-class big deck amphibious warship starting in Fiscal Year 2025 to 2027 as part of a “multi-ship procurement,” authorized as part of the FY 2023 National Defense Authorization Act.
“The ships procured as part of this contract will support amphibious assault, special operations, and expeditionary warfare missions of U.S. Marines, moving Marines into theater and supporting humanitarian and contingency missions on short notice,” reads the notification from Secretary of the Navy Carlos Del Toro.
“This amphibious MSP award demonstrates the Navy’s commitment to maintaining 31 amphibious warfare ships and prudence with taxpayer funds.”
-- USNI News
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If the United States is going to stay out of a shooting war with China, size matters. We must deter China every day with a massive show of force around the globe and particularly in the Pacific. It would be best if we could have a large RIMPAC every day in the Pacific. Unfortunately, we cannot do that. We must find a way to at least patrol the Pacific every day with one or more combined arms, crisis response Navy and Marine Corps ARG/MEUs. When the ARG/MEU arrives at some disputed shoal, the Chinese vessels take a step back. That is the way it should be.
Compass Points salutes all those working every day to deter China in the Pacific and around the world.
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Defense Scoop - 08/15/2924
Navy’s Project Overmatch steams ahead at RIMPAC
By Jon Harper
https://defensescoop.com/2024/08/15/navy-project-overmatch-rimpac-2024-steams-ahead/
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PhilStar - 08/16/2024
AFP: 92 Chinese vessels spotted in West Philippine Sea in 6 days
By Ian Laqui - Philstar.com
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USNI News - 08/15/2024
Navy Notifies Congress of Pending $11.5B, 4-Ship Amphibious Warship Deal
By Sam LaGrone
The Flt ll LPDs are gold plated in cost as is the LHA. The same total amount of money could build five (possibly 6) LHDs. The LHD projects more aviation combat power capability than the the LPD with more cube for embark. If cube is an issue, in-stream support with a maritime prepositioned ship is an option. Two LHDs would be suficient for each MEU thus reducing the total amphibious assault ship total required even further for a 2 MEF requirement. As the prevalence of drone warfare enters the defense and offense considerations of the MEU, a greater aviation capability for MEU support should be a requirement. The LHD vice LPD does this. Finally, reducing the various types of amphibious assault ships is cost effective for new ship buys and their subsequent maintenance. PS: At least the LSM isnt mentioned in the buy.
Re-Thinking the Taiwan Invasion
I recently read a “study” “Stopping a Taiwan Invasion” completed by a committee of senior military leaders in 2022. At only 82 pages it makes for a quick read and it makes 34 clear recommendations to deter the CCP from invading Taiwan. The first two recommendations that raised questions in my mind are: “31. The Marine Corps, using long range fires and operating independently or with local partners can help close off key straits (‘maneuver” spaces) to the immediate north and south of Taiwan in which PLA forces intend to operate in the event of an assault on Taiwan.” And “24. The Army’s relatively new Multi-Domain Forces are designed to synchronize precision effects and precision fires in all domains against adversary anti-precision fires in all domains against adversary anti-access/area denial (A2AD) networks. They provide unique opportunities for shaping during competition such as the Multi-Domain Effects Battalion’s ability to exploit space and cyber while the “doors are still open” prior to crisis.”
The US Army is developing, enhancing, and planning to field their Multi-Domain Task Force in the 2025 – 2040 timeframe and the “Multi-Domain” mission includes the Maritime Domain. https://www.tradoc.army.mil/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/MDB_Evolutionfor21st.pdf The Marine Corps is developing long range anti-ship missiles for the MLR’s in order to close the ocean gaps both north and south of Taiwan . My money is on the US Army to not only win the land based long range anti-ship missile competition but also the design and fielding of “synchronize precision effects and precision fires in all domains against adversary anti-precision fires in all domains against adversary anti-access/area denial (A2AD) networks.” Land based missiles is a US Army expertise and not a specialty of the Marines.
The other recommendation that got me thinking is “5. To deter China from invading Taiwan and defeating them, if they should attempt any such invasion, the number one priority is to be able to gain, maintain, and sustain air superiority over both Taiwan and the Taiwan Straits.” If the CCP invades Taiwan they are not only going to need air superiority but also they need to isolate Taiwan from their SLOCs. Doesn’t that mean the CCP needs to control those Japanese and Philippine “gap” Islands? The situation on the southern Taiwan side would be especially concerning if the CCP closes the Bashi Strait. If the CCP gets A2AD missiles on those Islands first how and who is going to get them back? This is basically the US Marine Corps MLR strategy in reverse.
If an air superiority operation is number one priority, the air campaign for Taiwan, like Desert Storm, is going to take a period of time. What is the best US military service to provide “911” combat forces to Taiwan during the initial air campaign?
Taiwan’s island defense is based on its mountains on the east side of the island. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NARE4PdYXIY&t=191s The last time the CCP fired their missiles over and near Taiwan they also dropped a few missiles east of Taiwan. https://www.graphicnews.com/index.php/en/pages/43067/military-china-fires-missiles-over-taiwan There is a group of five sizeable Japanese islands west of Taiwan. If the CCP occupies these islands Taiwan is completely isolated.
The CCP has a history of amphibious operations, primarily seizing coastal islands in 1949 and 1950 in order to secure their mainland ports. In each case, the Communist first seize the nearby islands to isolate their objective and then destroy and capture the Nationalist Chinese Army Units. The current defensive strategy for Taiwan is based on the assumption that the CCP shows their hand before the invasion and we (US and allies) heed the early warning signs. But what happens if the CCP does something we don’t expect, like penetration the First Island Chain by seizing and controlling the islands we plan to use to close the gaps?