Compass Points - Turn Around, Don't Drown
Sometimes it is necessary to turn around.
Compass Points - Turn Around, Don't Drown
Sometimes it is necessary to turn around.
June 10, 2025
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When the weather changes and heavy rains fall, electronic billboards and friendly weather reporters remind drivers not to drive into deep water, "Turn around. Don't drown."
It is not only drivers in storms who need to turn around.
A few years ago, the famous rental car company, Hertz, had a brand new CEO and the new CEO had an idea. His idea was to replace all of Hertz's gas powered rental cars with electric cars. Hertz would be the first all electric car rental company. With high hopes and great confidence, the CEO put his plan into effect immediately.
How did the big bet on technology work out? Road and Track tells the story in their report, "Hertz CEO Resigns After Big Bet on EVs Fails to Pay Off."
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In 2021, Hertz made a big splash when it announced plans to buy 100,000 Teslas and greatly expand its fleet of EVs. That deal, which came just half a year after a $4.2 billion restructuring saved the company from bankruptcy, moved the brand's stock price up 40 percent over two weeks. Two and a half years later, the brand is selling off many of those EVs at perilously low prices and the stock is trading at just 20 percent of its 2021 high. That is the sort of outcome that suggests a huge gamble did not pay off, and as a result, CEO Stephen Scherr is stepping down from his role.
-- Road and Track
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Senior leaders often bet on new technology. Sometimes those bets work out and sometimes they do not.
Beginning nearly six years ago, senior Marine Corps leaders bet on new sensor and missile technology. The senior leaders had the idea to change the focus of the Marine Corps from global, crisis response, to small, high tech, sensor and missile units acting as joint nodes on islands off China's coast. Just as with Hertz, after the initial enthusiasm, the years go by and results become clear.
For the Marine Corps, the results have included tremendous losses in worldwide, combined arms combat power. Marines have lost units, equipment, and capabilities in air, armor, infantry, artillery, engineering, snipers, and more. Some capabilities Marines had in abundance just a few years ago, the Marines do not have at all today.
Real world events have away of derailing previous plans. Marines in California have been put on alert to be prepared to assist with the dangerous and deteriorating situation in Los Angeles. If deployed into LA, the Marines would be under the command of a NorthCom Task Force.
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U.S. Northern Command stood up a formal task force on Sunday to coordinate the U.S. military’s deployments into Los Angeles County . . . . “As USNORTHCOM’s land component command, U.S. Army North stood up Task Force 51, with a two-star general, as the ground command and control element over the Title 10 forces,” NORTHCOM’s announcement said.
-- Task and Purpose
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With luck, the Marine Corps will not be deployed into LA, although it is looking more and more like they will. But what if the Marines were not on high alert for LA, but on high alert to deploy to some foreign urban area?
What if Marines were about to be plunged into urban riots in a city in Africa, Asia, or South America? Infantry in urban areas need many things and one of them is tanks. Unfortunately, due to the Marine Corps' big bet on missile units in the Pacific, Marines have no tanks for operations in foreign city streets.
Once all tanks were removed from the Marine Corps, the question became what would the Marines use for tanks when operations demanded tanks. The answer provided by Marine leaders was that the US Army would provide tanks. Will they? The Army is not putting any funds in its budget to support the Marines with tanks. Marines are not training with the Army to learn tank and infantry operations. Marines now have no tanks and no tank training. The missing equipment and capability, notwithstanding, Marines will still be sent into harms way. The call to go into to a chaotic foreign city could come tomorrow. The Marines, as always, will do great things, because they are Marines, but they will be forced to do great things without the equipment and training they need.
In their big bet on new technology, senior Marine leaders have caused the Marine Corps to lose crucial global combined arms units, equipment, and capabilities. Not only have all the tanks been lost, but also too much air, artillery, infantry, engineering, snipers and more
The CEO of Hertz learned that abrupt bets on new technology are not a good idea. He paid for his failed high tech plan with his job. When will senior Marine leaders learn that changing the focus of the Marine Corps from global crisis response, to small sensor and missile units off the coast of China has left Marines stripped of units, equipment, and capabilities needed for urgent operational missions around the world?
Turn around. Don't drown. Hertz turned around and they have recovered from their own misguided experiment. It is time for the Marine Corps to turn around and focus once again on restored and enhanced, worldwide, 9-1-1 crisis response.
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Road and Track
Hertz CEO Resigns After Big Bet on EVs Fails to Pay Off
By Fred Smith
https://www.roadandtrack.com/news/a60232041/hertz-ceo-resigns-after-big-bet-on-evs-fails-to-pay-off/
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Task and Purpose - 06/08/2025
US Northern Command Sets Up Task Force For Los Angeles Mission
By Nicholas Slayton
https://taskandpurpose.com/news/national-guard-los-angeles-task-force/
Change for the sake of change is a road to ruin. It is a double edged sword and the wise leader anticipates the unintended consequences. They are often totally predictable. The poor leader only sees the benefit he hopes for and dismisses the unintended consequences. In the military those unintended and ignored consequences later extract a terrible toll. The EABO concept was a terrible idea and recognized as such by experienced Marines right away. Nothing has changed except it is almost six years later and the first operational unit has yet to be fielded despite misleading statements to the contrary.
This is where human nature again raises its head as stubborn arrogance infuses leaders as they double down on the bad idea. Their own view is that they have tenacity. In reality they just keep charging off of the cliff like Lemmings and their ego simply cannot accept facts. Like a petulant child they stomp their feet and insist their flawed concept is wonderful. They believe they are the exceptional genius. Their ignorance is reinforced by their arrogance.
I hope they will be held accountable at some future date.
…and another recommended reading for General Smith and his staff. “Multi-Domain Battle in the Southwest Pacific Theater of World War II” by Christopher M. Rein (Combat Studies Institute Press, US Army Combined Arms Center, Fort Leavenworth, KS; published 29 July 2019.). It is available on Amazon.
I thought this analysis of Multi-Domain Warfare History was important enough to send a copy to General Eric M. Smith, Commandant of the Marine Corps, Headquarters, US Marine Corps, 3000 Marine Corps, Pentagon, Washington, DC 20350-3000 via Amazon. I will let CP know if I get a “Thank You Note”. If interested, I recommend you order a copy before, hopefully, the Commandant’s staff picks the shelf clean.
I feel that Mr. Rein’s analysis of WW2 multi-domain warfare is outstanding. He demonstrates the obvious, that control of the SLOC should be the strategic focus of any conflict in the Pacific Ocean. Securing the SLOC is essential for military operational communications and coordination, especially regarding amphibious operations.
Notable quote from Chapter 1 Single-Domain Battle: “Amphibious forces, under an umbrella of naval air cover, would first seize an air base, allowing land-based aircraft to be flown in and establish their own protective umbrella. Air raids from this new base could interdict the supplies flowing into the next target, thereby, weakening defenders and enabling subsequent amphibious assaults to succeed.”
The Japanese used this operational technique in their invasion of the Philippines. The Japanese, after neutralizing General MacArthur’s air force (and naval forces), conducted amphibious landing in Northern Luzon to seize airfields to support their main effort amphibious assault in the Lingayen Gulf. MacArthur was forced into fighting a losing single domain battle without reinforcement or sustainment against an enemy able to operate in all three domains.
Of the WW2 Pacific Theater domains, the air domain played the key role in combat operations to control SLOC. Today we have the additional domains of cyber, space and I would include the “seabed” domain because trans-ocean communications and power cables follow the globes major SLOC.
In a near future conflict with the CCP, the air domain will again play a key role in multi-domain battles. Missiles and drones will have a role, but aircraft will be the key weapon. Traditionally, shore-based artillery to attack targets at sea is the US Army’s responsibilities. The US Navy and Marine Corps Team (TFs and MAGTFs) will be responsible for gaining and maintaining the SLOC control and amphibious assaults will be essential in seizing and maintaining control. Mr. Rein’s book also demonstrates, in order to accomplish this mission, the Navy is going to need amphibious ships not only for the Marines but also for the US Army. Another reason that 31 or 33 amphibs misses the mark.
The Marine Corps, instead of focusing on land-based missiles should focus on the Marine Air Wings. Squadrons of 18 F35s are not going to be big enough. They need to be push to 24 aircraft (or increase the number of squadrons) with the associated ground equipment for each squadron to establish multiple disbursed FOBs and/or FARPs, especially for the V/STOL aircraft.
Let’s hope that Mr. Rein’s book is a good start for a “Turn Around”