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Douglas C Rapé's avatar

As one who has travelled extensively by boats and ships in the regions from Malaysia to Korea I have a few observations. The numbers and diversity of the ships and boats that ply these waters is hard to imagine. Those ships and boats range the entire spectrum from size to speed. The sea states in that far ranging geography cover the entire spectrum. What I cannot attest to is the Chinese ability to identify, target and hit those craft with discretion and accuracy.

Sadly, the Corps rolled out the EABO concept with no good idea how to get to the remote terrain to shoot from, how to resupply it, to medically evacuate Marines, how to keep it concealed, how to defend against missiles, aircraft, enemy Marines, unconventional forces or a rudimentary infantry force, how to keep locals from reporting on it, or how to position vehicles, radars and crew in the restrictive and varied terrains. Perhaps most critical, it focused on missiles with a very short range and has yet, after five years been able to meld it all together to detect, identify, engage and sink a moving warship. It has failed to lay out a template on how to achieve an overlapping and continues belt stretching the distance of the first island chain or redeploy forces to adjust for the maneuver options available to Chinese ships if you wish to herd them into kill zones.

I was recently told that a sense of frustration and even panic has set into planning process much like the gambler in Las Vegas who is running out of money and options.

The mostly submersible ship concept seems to confirm that.

In the 2012-2018 time frame smuggling Marijuana across the US Mexican border in the greater El Paso region had become increasingly difficult. Dealers decided to motorize hang glider type RPVs carrying a bale or two, flying at low level, and crashing them into the wide expanses of Ft Bliss and White Sands Missile Range where confederates in four wheel pick up trucks cut across ranges and impact areas to retrieve a bale or two, at night, provided they could find them while monitoring the Range Control net to determine where units were training, maneuvering or shooting from. The effort ultimately failed. Need I explain the similarities?

Professionals must be hard cold realists who reduce the potential for failure with sober analysis. More visionaries shatter on the collisions with reality than we bother to document. As the Corps decided to create a way forward by first cutting off the ability to retrench, it now finds itself unable to move back if for no other reason than cost and cannot forge ahead for innumerable reasons, not the least of which is cost. To the amateur chess player “Checkmate!” Comes as a surprise. The experienced player sees the checkmate coming many moves in advance as his option narrow and is forced into the defense. The panic in the planners is that they are aware that the options are running out. It is time to rebuild the MAGTF based on the realities of what we are seeing in Ukraine and Israel.

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Jerry McAbee's avatar

Professionals would have solved the logistical issues before selling the farm. Rational thinkers would not double down on FD and advocate full steam ahead while the logistical issues remain unresolved and known show stoppers. Sad, very sad

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