As one who has travelled extensively by boats and ships in the regions from Malaysia to Korea I have a few observations. The numbers and diversity of the ships and boats that ply these waters is hard to imagine. Those ships and boats range the entire spectrum from size to speed. The sea states in that far ranging geography cover the entire spectrum. What I cannot attest to is the Chinese ability to identify, target and hit those craft with discretion and accuracy.
Sadly, the Corps rolled out the EABO concept with no good idea how to get to the remote terrain to shoot from, how to resupply it, to medically evacuate Marines, how to keep it concealed, how to defend against missiles, aircraft, enemy Marines, unconventional forces or a rudimentary infantry force, how to keep locals from reporting on it, or how to position vehicles, radars and crew in the restrictive and varied terrains. Perhaps most critical, it focused on missiles with a very short range and has yet, after five years been able to meld it all together to detect, identify, engage and sink a moving warship. It has failed to lay out a template on how to achieve an overlapping and continues belt stretching the distance of the first island chain or redeploy forces to adjust for the maneuver options available to Chinese ships if you wish to herd them into kill zones.
I was recently told that a sense of frustration and even panic has set into planning process much like the gambler in Las Vegas who is running out of money and options.
The mostly submersible ship concept seems to confirm that.
In the 2012-2018 time frame smuggling Marijuana across the US Mexican border in the greater El Paso region had become increasingly difficult. Dealers decided to motorize hang glider type RPVs carrying a bale or two, flying at low level, and crashing them into the wide expanses of Ft Bliss and White Sands Missile Range where confederates in four wheel pick up trucks cut across ranges and impact areas to retrieve a bale or two, at night, provided they could find them while monitoring the Range Control net to determine where units were training, maneuvering or shooting from. The effort ultimately failed. Need I explain the similarities?
Professionals must be hard cold realists who reduce the potential for failure with sober analysis. More visionaries shatter on the collisions with reality than we bother to document. As the Corps decided to create a way forward by first cutting off the ability to retrench, it now finds itself unable to move back if for no other reason than cost and cannot forge ahead for innumerable reasons, not the least of which is cost. To the amateur chess player “Checkmate!” Comes as a surprise. The experienced player sees the checkmate coming many moves in advance as his option narrow and is forced into the defense. The panic in the planners is that they are aware that the options are running out. It is time to rebuild the MAGTF based on the realities of what we are seeing in Ukraine and Israel.
Narco semi-submersibles, eighteen to thirty plus Landing Ship Mediums which have not been built, when does this madness end? The CMC keeps doubling down, and going down the rabbit hole. The whole program should have been thoroughly thought out before implementation. It seems like they are making this up as they go. End this madness, and let the Marine Corps do what it does best: naval expeditionary warfare.
Professionals would have solved the logistical issues before selling the farm. Rational thinkers would not double down on FD and advocate full steam ahead while the logistical issues remain unresolved and known show stoppers. Sad, very sad
During the WW2 Guadalcanal Campaign the Japanese were hard pressed to keep their troops supplied. They attempted and resorted to two resupply techniques using submarines and fast destroyers. Neither could carry the supplies needed to sustain their forces. They even attempted slashing and linking lines of loaded 55-gallon drums that were then dropped off by destroyers near the shore. It didn't work.
If our US Coast Guard can detect and intercept semi-submersibles loaded with drugs, then the CCP Navy, Coast Guard, Naval Militia and their 15,000 + fishing boat fleet can do the same to semi-submersibles loaded with sustainment. In addition, the cargo space for a load of drugs is going to be very different than the required cargo space for military sustainment. Neither the Japanese nor MacArthur could get the sustainment they needed when they did not have control of the SLOCs. War with the CCP needs to focus on control of the GLOBAL SLOCS.
FD2030 has ruined our MAGTF capabilities and rendered our beloved Corps impotent and irrelevant to the other 95% of real world threats aside from the obsession with fighting the CHICOMs on remote Pacific islands...
So if we have “boats” that can run semi submerged without personnel to rapidly resupply Marines on the islands, will these units use GPS? Did Israel not report some interference with GPS just this week- with no reasonable reason? Sounds as if the thinkers need a rethink.
The Japanese not only resupplied but also evacuated an entire army unit off an Aleutian island via subs just before a joint force landed to eliminate them. Aleutian weather enabled that evacuation operation, and weather that bad and consistent is not found in many places on the globe.
As one who has travelled extensively by boats and ships in the regions from Malaysia to Korea I have a few observations. The numbers and diversity of the ships and boats that ply these waters is hard to imagine. Those ships and boats range the entire spectrum from size to speed. The sea states in that far ranging geography cover the entire spectrum. What I cannot attest to is the Chinese ability to identify, target and hit those craft with discretion and accuracy.
Sadly, the Corps rolled out the EABO concept with no good idea how to get to the remote terrain to shoot from, how to resupply it, to medically evacuate Marines, how to keep it concealed, how to defend against missiles, aircraft, enemy Marines, unconventional forces or a rudimentary infantry force, how to keep locals from reporting on it, or how to position vehicles, radars and crew in the restrictive and varied terrains. Perhaps most critical, it focused on missiles with a very short range and has yet, after five years been able to meld it all together to detect, identify, engage and sink a moving warship. It has failed to lay out a template on how to achieve an overlapping and continues belt stretching the distance of the first island chain or redeploy forces to adjust for the maneuver options available to Chinese ships if you wish to herd them into kill zones.
I was recently told that a sense of frustration and even panic has set into planning process much like the gambler in Las Vegas who is running out of money and options.
The mostly submersible ship concept seems to confirm that.
In the 2012-2018 time frame smuggling Marijuana across the US Mexican border in the greater El Paso region had become increasingly difficult. Dealers decided to motorize hang glider type RPVs carrying a bale or two, flying at low level, and crashing them into the wide expanses of Ft Bliss and White Sands Missile Range where confederates in four wheel pick up trucks cut across ranges and impact areas to retrieve a bale or two, at night, provided they could find them while monitoring the Range Control net to determine where units were training, maneuvering or shooting from. The effort ultimately failed. Need I explain the similarities?
Professionals must be hard cold realists who reduce the potential for failure with sober analysis. More visionaries shatter on the collisions with reality than we bother to document. As the Corps decided to create a way forward by first cutting off the ability to retrench, it now finds itself unable to move back if for no other reason than cost and cannot forge ahead for innumerable reasons, not the least of which is cost. To the amateur chess player “Checkmate!” Comes as a surprise. The experienced player sees the checkmate coming many moves in advance as his option narrow and is forced into the defense. The panic in the planners is that they are aware that the options are running out. It is time to rebuild the MAGTF based on the realities of what we are seeing in Ukraine and Israel.
A very insightful and sobering commentary, Doug. Thanks for this briefing.
Narco semi-submersibles, eighteen to thirty plus Landing Ship Mediums which have not been built, when does this madness end? The CMC keeps doubling down, and going down the rabbit hole. The whole program should have been thoroughly thought out before implementation. It seems like they are making this up as they go. End this madness, and let the Marine Corps do what it does best: naval expeditionary warfare.
Professionals would have solved the logistical issues before selling the farm. Rational thinkers would not double down on FD and advocate full steam ahead while the logistical issues remain unresolved and known show stoppers. Sad, very sad
During the WW2 Guadalcanal Campaign the Japanese were hard pressed to keep their troops supplied. They attempted and resorted to two resupply techniques using submarines and fast destroyers. Neither could carry the supplies needed to sustain their forces. They even attempted slashing and linking lines of loaded 55-gallon drums that were then dropped off by destroyers near the shore. It didn't work.
When General MacArthur was hard pressed in the Philippines at the beginning of the war, he also attempted re-supply by submarine (and blockade runners). Read this article: https://www.wearethemighty.com/mighty-history/how-macarthur-tried-supply-philippines/
If our US Coast Guard can detect and intercept semi-submersibles loaded with drugs, then the CCP Navy, Coast Guard, Naval Militia and their 15,000 + fishing boat fleet can do the same to semi-submersibles loaded with sustainment. In addition, the cargo space for a load of drugs is going to be very different than the required cargo space for military sustainment. Neither the Japanese nor MacArthur could get the sustainment they needed when they did not have control of the SLOCs. War with the CCP needs to focus on control of the GLOBAL SLOCS.
What has happened to our CORPS? Where are our leaders?
It looks like the current leadership lost its way!
FD2030 has ruined our MAGTF capabilities and rendered our beloved Corps impotent and irrelevant to the other 95% of real world threats aside from the obsession with fighting the CHICOMs on remote Pacific islands...
So if we have “boats” that can run semi submerged without personnel to rapidly resupply Marines on the islands, will these units use GPS? Did Israel not report some interference with GPS just this week- with no reasonable reason? Sounds as if the thinkers need a rethink.
The Japanese not only resupplied but also evacuated an entire army unit off an Aleutian island via subs just before a joint force landed to eliminate them. Aleutian weather enabled that evacuation operation, and weather that bad and consistent is not found in many places on the globe.