Compass Points - Wargame Consequences
Marines put in danger.
Compass Points - Wargame Consequences
Marines put in danger.
March 22, 2024
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There is a new article from the Marine Times, and it raises serious questions.
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When Marines conduct exercises and operations there is always an element of danger. Marines never run from danger. But Marine leaders also never multiply dangers. Planning helps reduce danger. In particular, logistics planning well in advance prevents problems later.
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One of the concerns many in the Marine community have about the so called Marine "Stand-in-Forces" is logistics. How will these small units of Marines on isolated Pacific islands be supported, supplied, reinforced, and evacuated? Over the years, the typical, official Marine Corps answer was that the plan for Force Design Stand-in-Forces had been "validated" by official Marine Corps wargames -- wargames that were often classified and always hidden behind walls of Non-Disclosure Agreements.
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As time went by, however, it became clear that the wargames had not validated anything. In fact, even if the wargames had been fairly and thoroughly conducted -- which they were not -- the wargames could not have validated Stand-in-Forces or anything else. That is not what wargames do. Instead, the Force Design wargames were carefully conducted to hide, obscure, and minimize the serious issues of logistics.
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Now, even the Marine Times is reporting concerns. A recent Marine Times article, "Marine wargames offer a look at the future — and fuel dissent" reveals that the wargames that supposedly provide the foundation and justification for Force Design were seriously flawed.
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But what if, some critics of Force Design have asked, those data points came from wargames that were fundamentally flawed?
Moore said the wargames he observed made too-optimistic assumptions, especially about logistics and mobility: that the Marines would be in the theater ready to fight when conflict broke out, that ship-to-shore vessels would come ashore without issues, that civilians would help Marines get food and supplies locally, that roads and bridges would be in good shape. He said the games also assumed uninterrupted command and control, sufficient air defenses and lack of detection by adversaries.
“Those were the assumptions that we never were allowed to test,” Moore said. “And those underpin the entire Force Design.”
A source who has firsthand knowledge of Marine Corps wargames and participated in some himself, and spoke on condition of anonymity, said he also had concerns about logistics being assumed away.
. . . A now-retired senior Marine officer recalled asking questions about logistics while getting briefed on the results of the Corps’ wargames. How would Marines and their equipment be moved to the fight? How would they be sustained? How would these logistics efforts evade the enemy’s notice?
-- Marine Times
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The Marine Times article quotes the current Commandant sayings there was not time to work out all the answers to logistics.
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Yet Gen. Eric Smith, who became the Marine commandant in September 2023, has said the Marine Corps shouldn’t wait until concepts are totally fleshed-out before implementing them.
-- Marine Times
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Other Marine Corps sources said there is nothing to worry about because the Marine Corps is working on the issue of logistics.
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Logistics “are gap areas that the Marine Corps has considered, continues to work on and is very alert to,”
-- Marine Times
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That is a strange thing to say. The Marine Corps is working on logistics issues now, long after equipment, units, and capabilities have been abruptly divested? Why not solve logistics issues in advance? It never makes sense to work on the logistics plan last.
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Before the concrete foundation is poured, before a single room is framed, every builder knows it is critical to start with a complete set of blueprints. Blueprints are the way to make sure that when the house is completed, the roof will not leak, the foundation will not crack, the doors and windows will open and close, and the house will have water, electricity, plumbing, and insulation. What do you call a house that begins with no blueprints? A pile of sticks.
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In the Marine Corps, the Combat Development Command at Quantico provides the blueprints that make sure an entire project will come together and function as planned. How could the Marine Corps cut equipment, units, and capabilities before having a full set of Combat Development Command blueprints to ensure success? Now, missing units, cut too quickly, are being added back. In addition, problems with a wide variety of staffing issues are degrading the Corps’ ability to operate effectively around the globe.
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How could the Marine Corps put a plan in motion to put Marines on isolated islands without knowing how those Marines would be supported, supplied, reinforced, and evacuated? More broadly, without the vital work of the Combat Development Command well it advance, it could be predicted that staffing problems would multiply. That is happening now.
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Throughout its distinguished history, the Marine Corps has been in a constant process of change, development, and re-development. The Marine Corps has always been enhancing its equipment, units, and capabilities. That process of updating the Corps is never ending. But in the past, the updating took place as part of a thorough Combat Development Process. Until recent years, the Marine Corps never cut current, proven capabilities before the anticipated, updated capabilities were ready for use. Never before has the Marine Corps left logistics to be considered last. The bigger the plan, the more important the change, the greater the need for solving logistics first.
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When Marines conduct exercises and operations there is always an element of danger. Marines never run from danger. But Marine leaders also never multiply dangers. Planning helps reduce danger. In particular, logistics planning well in advance prevents problems later. Compass Points salutes the Marine Times for investigating the issues surrounding the Force Design wargames. The author of the Marine Times article on the suspect wargames, Irene Loewenson, comes to a grave conclusion. Wargames -- including the logistics issues in wargames -- are not games at all. They are very serious. She concludes, "People live and die with the consequences."
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Marine Times - 03/21/2024
Marine wargames offer a look at the future — and fuel dissent
By Irene Loewenson
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Real Clear Defense (realcleardefense.com) 05/13/2023
The Radical Redesign and Restructuring of the United States Marine Corps
By Christopher Owens
Major General (Ret.) Christopher Owens was a career Marine Corps aviator. From 2012-2013, he commanded 1st Marine Aircraft Wing in the Western Pacific region.
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Compass Points - Wargame Timeline
No validation, no foundation
February 1, 2024
https://marinecorpscompasspoints.substack.com/p/compass-points-wargame-timeline
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Marine Corps Gazette (mca-marines.org) December 2022
Sustaining Stand-in Forces
Evaluating the logistical supportability for Expeditionary Advanced Base Operations
By Maj Daniel Katzman
. . . In a modern, high-end conflict, EABO is not logistically supportable given the need to persist and operate within the enemy’s weapons engagement zone at a significant distance from friendly support bases. EABs used for fires in support of sea control or forward arming and refueling points (FARP) provide the required sustainment scope to appreciate the logistics dilemma. When these EABs operate simultaneously to realize operations at scale, a logistics distribution challenge arises that is greater than the Marine Corps or joint force can support.
--Maj Katzman is a Logistics Officer, currently serving as Plans Officer, 1st MLG.
https://mca-marines.org/wp-content/uploads/Sustaining-Stand-in-Forces.pdf
That "logistics" thing always bothered me while on active duty. Here are some of my collected thoughts on that subject:
I don't know what the hell this logistics is that Marshall is always talking about, but I want some of it! ~Admiral Ernest J. King USN [WWII]
The Logistician
Unknown Author
Logisticians are a sad and embittered race of men who are very much in demand in war, and who sink resentfully into obscurity in peace. They deal only in facts, but must work for men who merchant in theories. They emerge during war because war is very much a fact. They disappear in peace because peace is mostly theory. The people who merchant in theories, and who employ logisticians in war and ignore them in peace, are generals.
Generals are a happy blessed race who radiate confidence and power. They feed only on ambrosia and drink only nectar. In peace, they stride confidently and can invade a world simply by sweeping their hands grandly over a map, point their fingers decisively up terrain corridors, and blocking defiles and obstacles with the sides of their hands. In war, they must stride more slowly because each general has a logistician riding on his back and he knows that, at any moment, the logistician may lean forward and whisper: "No, you can't do that." Generals fear logisticians in war and, in peace, generals try to forget logisticians.
Romping along beside generals are strategists and tacticians. Logisticians despise strategists and tacticians. Strategists and tacticians do not know about logisticians until they grow up to be generals—which they usually do.
Sometimes a logistician becomes a general. If he does, he must associate with generals whom he hates; he has a retinue of strategists and tacticians whom he despises; and, on his back, is a logistician whom he fears. This is why logisticians who become generals always have ulcers and cannot eat their ambrosia.
“Infantry wins battles, logistics wins wars.”
-Army General John J. Pershing
In the rush to divest and restructure many short cuts were taken and draconian measures applied. In short the commander’s intent might as well have read:
1. Prove that our strategy, tactics and equipment works.
2. Prove that what we discarded was not needed.
3. Marginalize anyone who asks questions.
4. Brand those who have questions as “resistant to change” or ignorant.
War Games was merely one of shortcuts. If you could really build in all of the variables the NFL would have cracked the code in football which is a million times easier to war game.
Today was a milestone. Someone in the Corps let the first ray of light in. A disbanded Cobra Squadron is going to be reactivated and reconstituted. The USMC is also going to acquire F-5 fighters from Switzerland to serve in Op For squadrons. Time to re-look more than that. War in the Ukraine is real. It is not a computer war game. Why did the autumn counter offensive fail? Certainly it was “tested” in a war game. It failed for a lack of Armor, Mechanized Infantry, infantry, engineer assets, Artillery and air support working as a synchronized team. The lesson is right in front of our face. Imagine ignoring tanks, artillery, CAS, fast moving infantry and airborne forces after the fall of France in WWII and stubbornly insisting that war games validated the Maginot line. Tell the men at Dunkirk.
I would be remiss if I did not point out that our moribund industrial base can’t produce the weaponry and ammunition while the Russians are mass producing tanks and ammunition in staggering numbers. Who war gamed that one wrong?
The USMC placed too many eggs in one basket by asking for a mix of anti ship missiles industry will not be able to build in sufficient numbers. No war game needed there. An 8th grader who can count enemy ships, aircraft and forces will quickly tell you when you are out of Schlitz while the enemy still has plenty. When you are only good for 3 rounds in a 15 round fight it gets pretty ugly very quickly.