Compass Points - Still Wondering
Two topics pending.
Compass Points - Still Wondering
Two topics pending.
February 23, 2024
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Compass Points is still wondering about two topics.
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Earlier this month, Compass Points published two posts, "Wargame Timeline" and “Report Due."
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"Wargame Timeline" (and the following post, "Wargames 2") reported that Dr. Scott Moore the senior analyst and head of wargame analysis at the Marine Corps Wargaming Center from November 2016 to April 2021 revealed that the Force Design wargames did not provide support for the drastic changes of Force Design.
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First, the wargames assumed away the most challenging problems, such as logistics, forceable entry, opposing forces, and integrated communication networks. Each of these areas are potential showstoppers that are essentially unresolved today.
Second, the wargames were designed largely to validate predetermined decisions and support associated systems acquisition.
Third, the wargames did not support the radical redesign and restructuring of the Marine Corps, particularly the divestments of tanks, bridging, assault breaching, and law enforcement battalions and significant reductions in infantry, artillery, and aviation.
And fourth, when Army forces were included, the wargames concluded that Army Multi-Domain Task Force capabilities greatly exceeded those of the Marine Littoral Regiments.
-- Dr. Scott Moore, former head of wargame analysis, Marine Corps Wargaming Center.
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The comments by another Marine Corps wargaming expert reinforce the findings of Dr. Moore
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My perspective is informed by my experiences from 2018 to 2021, prior to my own retirement, as the officer responsible for Marine Corps wargaming… Berger in early summer, 2019 formed a small group of colonels and generals… They spent two months crafting Force Design 2030… After becoming Commandant, he spent two months in a cycle of reviews with his three-star generals before issuing a decision memorandum in September 2019 outlining the design. From there the design was handed over to the force development enterprise in Quantico. Given the shroud of secrecy that surrounded the effort up to that point, there were surprises in the scope of the restructuring and divestment decisions… The task sparked an immediate series of wargames, which I oversaw, to examine the divestments… He [the Commandant] handed the force development enterprise a single course of action, which dominated the analysis and wargaming in a way that left little room for a consideration of alternatives….
-- Colonel Tim Barrick, USMC (Ret) in War on the Rocks, “On Future Wars and the Marine Corps: Asking the Right Questions”
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While reporters from the national defense news have shown some interest in the story of the manipulation of the Force Design wargames, so far none has done an in-depth report. When will the national defense news turn their full spotlight on the suspect wargames?
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Congress is not sitting still. Congress is beginning to ask questions -- not just informally -- but as a matter of law.
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Congress is more than busy with crises at home and abroad. Nevertheless, Congress is beginning to take time and attention to ask questions about the health of the Marine Corps. In the most recent National Defense Authorization Act, Congress imposed a requirement for a special report about the Marine Corps' Force Design decisions.
Why should Congress feel the need to ask for a special report? Most likely because over the last few years, there have been too many questions about the Marine Corps and too few answers. In Section 1066 of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2024 Congress requires, "the Commandant of the Marine Corps shall submit to the congressional defense committees a report detailing the programmatic choices made to implement Force Design 2030." Shortly after the report is submitted to Congress, the Marine Corps is required to brief the report to Congress.
-- Compass Points, "Report Due" February 14, 2024
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The wargames that supposedly undergird Force Design have been exposed. In addition, the Congress is requiring a special report from the Marine Corps. That leaves Compass Points still wondering about both topics.
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1. When will a defense news national magazine do an in-depth expose of the wargames? Reporters love to report on scandals and the Force Design wargames are a scandal.
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2. When will Congress demand the required report from the Marine Corps? Compass Points is not privy to all the inner workings of Congress, but as far as can be determined, the Marine Corps has not submitted the report that was due on February 15, 2024. Marines have a reputation for being like artillery, always on time and on target. But the required report to Congress is apparently not on time and not on target. If the report has not been submitted on time, why not? The report could be used by the Marine Corps to laud the merits of Force Design. Or, better still, the Marine Corps could forthrightly report on Force Design’s serious deficiencies. If the report has not been submitted on time, it is almost as if the Marine Corps does not want to talk about Force Design.
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It is time for the Marine Corps to stop marching in the wrong direction. Force Design was an experiment. But years have gone by now and it is time to move on. Compass Points salutes all those helping the Marine Corps to turn around, including members of the defense press writing about the wargames, and the members of Congress requiring the Marine Corps submit the required report. If the Marine Corps’ report on Force Design is overdue, it is time for the Marine Corps to march into Congress, center themselves on the desk, and report.
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Compass Points - Wargame Timeline
No validation, no foundation
February 1, 2024
https://marinecorpscompasspoints.substack.com/p/compass-points-wargame-timeline
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Compass Points - Report Due
List of 10 specific elements
February 14, 2024
https://marinecorpscompasspoints.substack.com/p/compass-points-report-due
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The 118th Congress (2023-2024)
H.R.2670 - National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2024
SEC. 1066. ANNUAL REPORT AND BRIEFING ON IMPLEMENTATION OF FORCE DESIGN 2030.
https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/2670/text
The unanswered question(s) that a diligent press ought ask, is why did the Commandant aka General Berger, decide on the FD2030 course of action and conduct himself in such a manner as to preclude any real discussion or opposition until it was too late? Coming from New England there is a natural cynicism in the air, water and food, and the thought comes to the fore that some very important data sets have never been brought the fore to justify this FD2030 mess. Or, is there something nefarious, larger at work? Or, could it be that those on the DC cocktail party circuit talked themselves into something really stupid? That rarified air of Georgetown, does strange things to people, swamp gas from foggy bottom? Regardless some digging into the basis, the real bassi for the FD#030 decisions, needs to be done. Fixing the MAGTF situation is tangible, but knowing why such awful decision making was done in the first place might be helpful. As in let’s never do that again.
Given congress’s penchant for hearings and the mild smell to severe stench developing, hearings on how this all happened with severe misrepresentations and IMHO willful deaf & blindness to any obstacles to immediate divestment of weapons, equipment and Marines. It seems to me that our Corps cannot perform missions that we are required to be ready to whenever called upon.